Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CHIANGMAI32
2009-03-05 06:43:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

REDS SPOIL TWO RALLIES, CANCEL ONE OF THEIR OWN

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM KJUS TH 
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VZCZCXRO0164
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0032/01 0640643
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 050643Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0988
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1070
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000032 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KJUS TH
SUBJECT: REDS SPOIL TWO RALLIES, CANCEL ONE OF THEIR OWN

REF: A. Bangkok 495 (Thai Farmers: Trying to Stand Out)

B. Bangkok 486 (Thai Protest Update: Redshirts)

C. Chiang Mai 24 (By-Elections, Reds and Migrants)

D. Chiang Mai 18 (Tougher Times Ahead)

CHIANG MAI 00000032 001.2 OF 002


Sensitive but unclassified; please handle accordingly.

------------------------------------
Summary and Comment
------------------------------------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000032

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KJUS TH
SUBJECT: REDS SPOIL TWO RALLIES, CANCEL ONE OF THEIR OWN

REF: A. Bangkok 495 (Thai Farmers: Trying to Stand Out)

B. Bangkok 486 (Thai Protest Update: Redshirts)

C. Chiang Mai 24 (By-Elections, Reds and Migrants)

D. Chiang Mai 18 (Tougher Times Ahead)

CHIANG MAI 00000032 001.2 OF 002


Sensitive but unclassified; please handle accordingly.

--------------
Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (SBU) The last two weeks of February saw a flurry of
activity by pro-Thaksin "redshirt" groups in two northern
provinces. The leading Rak Chiang Mai 51 (RCM51) group
disrupted the rallies of two apolitical groups (corn farmers and
gay activists),and redshirts cancelled a rally due to
infighting among various local pro-Thaksin groups. Meanwhile,
redshirt threats to prevent newly appointed provincial and
regional police officials from taking power did not materialize.
With the new chiefs now in place, police contacts expect a less
lenient attitude toward pro-Thaksin supporters, and more
rigorous enforcement of the law against political groups in
general.


2. (SBU) Comment: Disrupting demonstrations by corn farmers and
gay pride groups that have nothing to do either with former PM
Thaksin or the current Government indicates that redshirt groups
up north are in search of a cause cilhbre in an effort to
maintain whatever momentum they still have. Absent the speedy
achievement of key redshirt goals -- the resignation of either
PM Abhisit Vechajiva, FM Kasit Piromya or both; reinstatement of
the 1997 constitution; and House dissolution followed by
elections -- the northern redshirts may weaken significantly as
the current governing coalition consolidates its hold on power.
We will continue to track the northern redshirts' next moves,
paying particular attention to indications of the movement's
strength. End Summary and Comment.

--------------
Splits Taking Their Toll
--------------


3. (SBU) As reported (Refs C and D),splits in pro-Thaksin
forces in Chiang Mai are becoming more evident. On February 21,
redshirt groups had to cancel a rally planned for Chiang Mai's
main sports complex when the Bangkok-based United Front for
Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) withdrew its financial
support amidst squabbles between RCM51 and two break-away groups

-- the "Love Thaksin People of Thailand," and "Redshirted New
Blood". Police and other provincial contacts told us the
redshirt groups were unable to pay the stadium rental fee of
approximately $8,350. They also told us that rally-goers, who
used to be promised more than $10 in return for their
participation, were promised about half that amount this time,
and therefore decided not to participate. We also note press
reports stating that on February 12, RCM51 members brandishing
knives and batons twice clashed with supporters of the two
break-away groups, resulting in minor injuries on both sides.


4. (SBU) According to different police contacts, another sign
of the splits within the northern reds and potentially of
weakness in the movement is the dwindling number of supporters
from the north that the three pro-Thaksin groups have been able
to mobilize to attend rallies in Bangkok. Ahead of the UDD's
February 24-28 rally at Government House (Ref B),reportedly
only a few van-loads of supporters traveled from Chiang Mai to
Bangkok. On previous occasions, police told us the contingent
tended to fill several large double-decker busses.


5. (SBU) Separately, we learned that the new Regional Police
Commissioner and Chiang Mai Provincial Police Chief, both of
whom are widely considered to be sympathetic to the
pro-government Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD),assumed
their duties uneventfully on February 16 -- despite previous
RCM51 threats to physically prevent them from taking office (Ref
D). The new Region 5 Commissioner stated February 27 that
preventing and controlling "conflict" of political ideas was one
of his top four priorities. He also warned there would be no
double standard regarding political groups that violate the
rights of others or disturb the peace by excessively exercising
their right to political protest. The police would be more
vigilant with regard to political rallies, he added, and more
accountable in following through on cases related to them.
(Note: These comments are consistent with recent statements by
Chiang Mai's Vice Governor, per Ref D).

-------------- --
Reds Seek Non-Political Targets
-------------- --


CHIANG MAI 00000032 002.2 OF 002



6. (U) Meanwhile, RCM51 was busy disrupting demonstrations by
two other essentially apolitical groups -- corn farmers and gay
rights activists. On February 19, RCM51 members asked corn
farmers protesting the lack of government price supports in the
wake of falling market prices to join their ranks and fight for
former PM Thaksin. When the farmers refused, heated arguments
broke out, according to police and press contacts, nearly
resulting in a fist fight. Cooler heads eventually prevailed,
and both groups dispersed. (Note: Protests by farmers at this
time of year are not unusual; per Ref A.)


7. (U) On February 21, about 80 RCM51 supporters carrying
banners stating "Gay Parade get out! Don't destroy our
beautiful culture" confronted HIV/AIDS activists from Chiang Mai
and other provinces at a gay pride parade near the Chiang Mai
Governor's residence. According to press reports, the RCM51
members shouted anti-homosexual rhetoric and hurled plastic bags
containing pig's blood at the 800-strong marchers. The
sponsoring organization, the Gender Diversity Network,
reluctantly cancelled the rally when the local police chief
expressed concern that his 50-officer squad would not be able to
handle the situation if the parade went ahead.


8. (U) On February 28 in Phitsanulok Province, local redshirt
groups and RCM51 members clashed with locals at a concert
organized by PAD supporters, but police prevented any violence.


9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
MORROW