REDSHIRTS FLEX THEIR MUSCLE IN NORTH AHEAD OF BY-ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000003

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PROP TH
SUBJECT: REDSHIRTS FLEX THEIR MUSCLE IN NORTH AHEAD OF BY-ELECTIONS

REF: A. 08 CHIANG MAI 178 (PRO AND ANTI THAKSIN GROUPS)

B. 08 CHIANG MAI 168 (POLITICAL TEMPERATURE)

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Summary and Comment
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1. Over the past few weeks, pro-Thaksin (redshirt) protestors
in northern Thailand have come out in force to show their
opposition to the current Democrat Party-led coalition
government, and intimidate its officials and supporters. Though
not violent in nature, these protests have included blocking off
a hotel, a large gathering in front of the Chiang Mai airport,
vandalizing property, burning a casket in effigy, and attempting
to blockade a shopping center. These actions have been carried
out in advance of by-elections due to be held in two northern
provinces, where the races could be close.


2. (U) Comment: Northern Thailand continues to be the center of
redshirt activity, and we can expect to see the redshirts remain
vocal as long as the governing coalition stays in power. The
fact that the two by-election races in the north have the
potential to be close may be another factor motivating the
redshirts to come out in numbers at this time. At the current
level of intensity, their intimidation tactics may not be as
successful as they hope. Resorting to violence, however, as the
redshirts did on a few occasions last year (Ref B) could change
the dynamics rather quickly, in ways difficult to predict. End
Summary and Comment.

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Reds, Not Yellows, on the March This Time
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3. Several incidents over the past few weeks have highlighted
the opposition of pro-Thaksin redshirts to the current governing
coalition. On December 20, approximately 200 redshirt
supporters paid an unwelcome visit to the Chiang Mai residence
of an MP, whose Motherland Party is part of the current
governing coalition, to protest his vote in the lower house in
favor of Abhisit's ascension to the post of Prime Minister. The
MP himself was not home at the time. The protestors burned a
casket in effigy in front of the residence, and handed a letter
to his assistant demanding that he resign from the Motherland
Party and join the Democrat Party within seven days. (Note: The
Motherland Party joined the pro-Thaksin People Power Party
coalition after the December 2007 elections.) The protestors
threatened to return for a follow-up visit on December 27 if
their demands were not met. So far, the MP in question has not
resigned from the Motherland Party, nor have the redshirts
marched on his residence.


4. It did not take the redshirts long to reinvigorate
themselves after the New Year's holiday. On January 3, they
blockaded all entrances to the Royal Lanna Hotel in Chiang Mai
in an attempt to prevent Minister of Labor Phaithoon Kaeothong
from holding meetings he had scheduled to discuss campaign
strategy with the Democrat Party's candidate in a by-election
scheduled for January 11 in Lamphun Province. During the
blockade, vehicles were not allowed to leave or enter the
property without first being checked by the protestors. The
group eventually disbanded upon discovering that the Minister
had left the hotel prior to the redshirts' arrival. (Note:
By-elections will be held for 29 seats in 22 provinces,
including two northern ones, on January 11.)


5. In a separate incident on the same day, redshirts attempted
to mount a blockade around a shopping center in Lampang that has
traditionally served as the provincial headquarters of the
anti-Thaksin Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD),as well as a
PAD rallying site. Democrat Party MP Somkiat Pongpaiboon was in
the complex at the time, having traveled to Lampang for PAD
meetings. The redshirts were not able to seal off the area due
to swift action by the police and shopping center staff to lock
all doors to the complex.


6. On January 6, redshirt supporters harassed former Prime
Minister and current advisor to the Democrat Party Chuan Leekpai
on three separate occasions. Protestors confronted Chuan, who
was assisting the campaign efforts of DP candidates in Lampang
and Lamphun provinces, succeeding at hitting him in the face
with an egg in Lampang, and dousing his car with pig's blood in
Lamphun. Protestors also assembled in front of Chiang Mai's
airport, waiting for Chuan, whom they expected would attempt to
catch a flight back to Bangkok. Chuan avoided the protest by
entering the airport via the military wing, and moving to the
civilian side only after entering the inner security perimeter.
At no time did the protests force Chuan to cancel or reschedule
any of his meetings.

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Diplomats and Media React
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7. (SBU) Several journalists have pointed out the degree to
which the redshirts use pro-Thaksin community radio stations to
organize their protests, which redshirt contacts confirmed (Ref
A). The journalists argue that the politicization of these
radio stations and the fact that they broadcast slanderous
rhetoric about the current government during the redshirt
protests on January 6 underscores the need for Thailand to
regulate community radio. (Comment: The pro-PAD radio station
in Chiang Mai is also a key means of organizing PAD
gatherings/protests.) Separately, the wife of a former Foreign
Ministry official, who is herself an honorary consul, told us
that she did not want her husband to join the current
government. "I don't want the reds burning something in front
of my house," she commented at a social function. We will
continue to keep our eye on the red-yellow conflict, including
the degree to which both sides employ community radio stations
to mobilize their supporters.
MORROW