SOUTHERN THAILAND: READOUT ON ABHISIT-NAJIB, LOCAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000184

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR PTER TH MY
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN THAILAND: READOUT ON ABHISIT-NAJIB, LOCAL
EMPOWERMENT

REF: A. BANGKOK 3171 (More on Malaysian Angle)

B. BANGKOK 3104 (Najib's Visit)

C. CHIANG MAI 171 (Skeptical Army Leadership)

CHIANG MAI 00000184 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
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Summary and Comment

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1. (S) During a joint visit to southern Thailand by the Thai
and Malaysian Prime Ministers, PM Abhisit reportedly raised with
PM Najib - indirectly - RTG concern over official Malaysian
pressure on Malaysia-based insurgent leaders involved in secret
peace talks with the RTG. In a post-Najib-visit meeting with
staff, one participant reported that Abhisit also said he would
welcome a proposal by the insurgents for greater local
empowerment in the deep South, provided it allowed for Buddhists
to coexist freely with the Muslim majority there. The structure
and specifics of local empowerment will likely be pursued in the
next round of talks, which are not currently scheduled but could
take place as early as mid-January.




2. (S) Comment: Time will tell whether Abhisit's roundabout
private message to Najib will ultimately ease pressure by its
security organs on Malaysia-based insurgent leaders involved in
the secret talks with the RTG. On the issue of granting a
greater local voice in governance in the deep South - long on
the table as an essential element for ending the conflict there
- a great deal of work lies ahead for both sides to turn
current, politically loaded buzzwords like "autonomy" into
specific proposals for administering local governments, courts,
schools, and other civic institutions. End Summary and Comment.



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Abhisit Confronts Najib - Sort Of

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3. (S) Consul General met December 18 in Chiang Mai with Mark
Tamthai, Director of Payap University's Institute of Religion,
Culture and Peace and RTG point-man for secret talks with
southern insurgents facilitated by the Henri Dunant Centre
(HDC). Tamthai provided brief updates on developments since
Malaysian PM Najib's December 8-9 visit to southern Thailand
(Refs A and B) and the latest round of talks in Manila in early
November (Ref C).




4. (S) Tamthai had recently returned from a December 16 meeting
in Bangkok with PM Abhisit during which Tamthai and (unnamed)
others had sought a readout from Abhisit on his discussions with
Najib during their joint visit to the South. In particular,
participants wanted to know what Abhisit, in private discussions
with Najib, had said on the vexing issue of official Malaysian
pressure on Malaysia-based insurgent leaders involved in the
secret dialogue. According to Tamthai, Abhisit said he had
raised the matter indirectly by saying that while the RTG saw
the insurgency as an internal Thai matter, it appreciated any
steps by the GOM to facilitate RTG efforts to address the
problem. Tamthai expressed to us some unease with the broad and
vague formulation that Abhisit chose to use, but added that
Najib probably understood what Abhisit was driving at since the
matter of GOM meddling had been raised the week before with
aides to Najib during a trip to Kuala Lumpur by an Abhisit envoy
(Ref A). As for how Najib would respond to Abhisit's roundabout
request, Tamthai said "we'll see."



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Advancing the Local Empowerment Concept

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CHIANG MAI 00000184 002.2 OF 002





5. (S) Another topic reportedly discussed during the December
16 internal meeting was the concept of granting a greater local
voice in governance in the South as an essential element to
ending the conflict. According to Tamthai, Abhisit said he
supported local empowerment as long as it left space for
Buddhists to coexist freely in the Muslim-majority South, and
would be willing to consider a specific proposal from the
insurgent leaders. Tamthai noted to us that public momentum was
building across Thailand for greater local empowerment in the
South and was being openly and regularly discussed in workshops
and academic fora. He added that various civil society
organizations and Southern student groups were circulating in
the deep South to solicit the general public's thoughts on local
empowerment. He believes the time is ripe for the RTG to
comment publicly on the matter, and expressed disappointment
that Abhisit did not do so during his tour of the South with
Najib.




6. (S) Tamthai sees local empowerment as a leading agenda item
for the next round of secret talks, which he hopes will take
place in mid-January. He wants to push the insurgent
representatives to develop a proposal, but admitted that to date
they have given little thought to the structure and details that
would follow their frequent calls for "autonomy." Tamthai would
like to see the next round of talks produce a "tasking" to the
dialogue's nascent academic Study Group (Ref C) to hammer out
the details of a local empowerment proposal for administering
the three southernmost provinces.



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CBMs: Little Movement

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7. (S) Tamthai gave brief updates on several
confidence-building measures that have long been on the table
during the secret talks:



-- June 8 mosque attack investigation. Continued lack of
progress continues to frustrate Abhisit greatly. (Note: to
date, only one arrest warrant has been issued, and no arrests
have been made).



-- Prisoner release. The highly complex royal pardon route has
been dropped. Tamthai is now exploring whether an amnesty
provision in a recent Cabinet-approved measure on security in
four districts in Songkhla province could be extended to the
three provinces where the insurgency is focused, and then
applied to the prisoners in question. He cautioned that this
would be a lengthy process at best.



-- Ceasefire. On-again off-again plans for a ceasefire are on
again. Tamthai reported that the insurgent participants in the
secret dialogue are working on declaring a unilateral ceasefire
for a finite period over a broad area. Should this come to
realization, he said the RTG would need to prepare an
appropriate response in the form of its own unilateral steps,
such as a partial troop withdrawal.




8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
MORROW