Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CHIANGMAI18
2009-02-02 08:33:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

TOUGHER TIMES AHEAD FOR PRO-THAKSIN FORCES IN NORTH

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM PROP TH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0511
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0018/01 0330833
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 020833Z FEB 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0963
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1041
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000018 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PROP TH
SUBJECT: TOUGHER TIMES AHEAD FOR PRO-THAKSIN FORCES IN NORTH

REF: A. BANGKOK 247 (PRESSURE ON THAI GOVERNMENT)

B. CHIANG MAI 10 (PRO-THAKSIN VOTE DROPS)

C. CHIANG MAI 4 (THAKSIN'S HEARTLAND MAY MOBILIZE)

D. CHIANG MAI 3 (REDSHIRTS FLEX)

E. 08 CHIANG MAI 178 (PRO AND ANTI-THAKSIN)

F. 08 CHIANG MAI 168 (POLITICAL TEMPERATURE)

CHIANG MAI 00000018 001.2 OF 002


Sensitive but unclassified; please handle accordingly.

------------------------------------
Summary and Comment
------------------------------------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000018

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PROP TH
SUBJECT: TOUGHER TIMES AHEAD FOR PRO-THAKSIN FORCES IN NORTH

REF: A. BANGKOK 247 (PRESSURE ON THAI GOVERNMENT)

B. CHIANG MAI 10 (PRO-THAKSIN VOTE DROPS)

C. CHIANG MAI 4 (THAKSIN'S HEARTLAND MAY MOBILIZE)

D. CHIANG MAI 3 (REDSHIRTS FLEX)

E. 08 CHIANG MAI 178 (PRO AND ANTI-THAKSIN)

F. 08 CHIANG MAI 168 (POLITICAL TEMPERATURE)

CHIANG MAI 00000018 001.2 OF 002


Sensitive but unclassified; please handle accordingly.

--------------
Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (SBU) Despite reports from multiple sources of a decline in
their support base, pro-Thaksin "redshirt" groups in northern
Thailand continue to intimidate officials and supporters of the
present government, even when they travel to northern Thailand
on personal business. In the latest spate of incidents, the
targets were a Deputy Prime Minister, the Deputy Finance
Minister, and a Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leader.
Separately, we understand that the police are scrutinizing
redshirt activities here more closely and considering pressing
charges in some cases, and that the Government may attempt to
close the main pro-Thaksin community radio station in Chiang Mai.


2. (SBU) Comment: Legal action against the Rak Chiang Mai 51
(Love Chiang Mai 51 -- RCM51) group and other redshirt
protestors appears warranted in some cases due to their use of
violence. However, such action would raise concern over
double-standards given the Thai Government's reluctance so far
to prosecute PAD leaders and members over their seizure of
Government House and Bangkok's two airports in 2008. Failure on
the part of the government and law enforcement to treat both
sides equally would only inflame political tensions that are
already high, and could result in increased sympathy for the
redshirts if the general public believes they are being unfairly
targeted. End Summary and Comment.

--------------
Redshirts on the Hunt
--------------
Q

3. (U) In three recent incidents, redshirt groups have made it
clear they will continue to intimidate officials and supporters
of the Royal Thai Government during their travels to northern
Thailand, even if their trips are not of an official nature. On
January 24, members of the pro-Thaksin RCM51 group interrupted a

gathering of Chiang Mai University alumni at which Deputy Prime
Minister Suthep Thaugsuban was present. In order to prevent
them from entirely spoiling the festivities, Suthep departed the
venue and returned almost immediately to Bangkok, according to
journalists covering the story. Nonetheless, one Chiang Mai
University faculty member attending the event was hit in the
face with a hard object her colleagues believe was a shoe by a
redshirted, masked assailant.


4. (U) Separately, on January 21, RCM51 members surrounded a
Chiang Mai temple at which Deputy Finance Minister Pradit
Pataraprasit was participating in a merit-making ceremony.
Accounts differ as to the particulars of the incident, with The
Nation newsQper reporting that police had to rescue the
Minister, while our contacts told us that police did not have to
take action because he had departed the scene before the RCM51
members arrived. The Nation also reported that the RCM51
members were armed with bags of a blood-like substance and that
they held a ceremony outside the temple cursing the Minister,
but we were unable to verify this information. (Note: RCM51
has previously used pig's blood against government officials,
per Ref D.)


5. (U) On January 23, RCM51 sent supporters to a Buddhist
meditation center where PAD leader Chamlong Srimuang was
reported to be. They entered the complex searching for him,
demolished some of the rickety shacks, and set others ablaze.
As it turned out, Chamlong did not even travel to Chiang Mai.
Journalists covering the story allege that RCM51 knew Chamlong
would not be present, but wanted an excuse to attack the center,
which they view as pro-PAD.

-------------- --------------
--------------
Protection and Support for Redshirts Waning?
-------------- --------------
--------------


6. (SBU) RCM51 and other redshirt groups have long benefited
from police indifference toward their activities (Ref E),but
that may be about to change. Not only have rumors begun
circulating about the search for a replacement for the current
Region 5 Police Commander, who is a classmate of Thaksin's, but

CHIANG MAI 00000018 002.2 OF 002


also Deputy Prime Minister Suthep has made public comments about
the need for a shake-up in the police force. A reporter also
told us he expected an announcement soon about the imminent
change. Separately, the Chiang Mai Vice Governor in charge of
security affairs told us that the police have been instructed to
wrap up investigation of the cases involving violence by the
redshirts, paving the way for legal action against them.


7. (SBU) Incidents under investigation include the murder of
the father of Chiang Mai's pro-PAD community radio station
operator last December, and the assault against two
Constitutional Court officials at Chiang Mai airport last
November. The Vice Governor told us he believes that charges in
these and other pending cases will send a message to RCM51 that
it is no longer above the law, and may deter it from future
violent actions. Furthermore, according to a member of the
press, RCM51 leaders were summoned to Provincial Police
headquarters on January 28 and cautioned against future
transgressions.


8. (SBU) Separately, a senior police contact told us that
hard-core members of RCM51 now number 50-60, though the group
can still mobilize 200-300 supporters via its community radio
station. Another contact pointed to signs that the redshirts'
support base is on the decline: he claims that their funding
sources are drying up and they are unable to gain the support of
MPs in the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai opposition party. In addition,
some key voices at Chiang Mai University who were previously
sympathetic to the redshirts cause or who stayed out of the
political fray, have begun calling for a stop to the redshirts'
aggression and for impartial law enforcement.

--------------
Woe on the Radio?
--------------


9. (SBU) In another development, a Minister in the Prime
Minister's office recently spoke of the need to close five
community radio stations in Thailand, including two in Chiang
Mai and Lamphun provinces, for being used as political tools and
instigating unrest. The only station cited by name in the press
report was the Taxi Lovers Club station in Bangkok, which is
pro-Thaksin. Citing credible sources, a reporter with whom we
spoke said that the pro-Thaksin station in Chiang Mai was
another station that would be closed. The Minister in question
nonetheless reportedly said, "There will not be discrimination
against rivals." The same reporter told us that some DJs had
left the pro-Thaksin station in question to establish their own
stations. RCM51 leader and oQator of Chiang Mai's main
pro-Thaksin station confirmed that many of his emplQees had
left because he was not able to pay them a regular salary since
his station was commercial free and therefore did not earn
advertising revenue.


10. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
MORROW