Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CHIANGMAI178
2009-11-25 11:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

PM'S PLANNED NOV. 29 VISIT GALVANIZES RED-SHIRTS TO ACT IN

Tags:  PREL PGOV SOCI PHUM CASC ASEC TH 
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PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0178/01 3291110
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P R 251110Z NOV 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1220
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1312
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHIANG MAI 000178 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI PHUM CASC ASEC TH
SUBJECT: PM'S PLANNED NOV. 29 VISIT GALVANIZES RED-SHIRTS TO ACT IN
CHIANG MAI

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 173 (DIALOGUE EXPANDS)

B. CHIANG MAI 3 (RED-SHIRTS FLEX)

CHIANG MAI 00000178 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
--------------------------

Summary and Comment

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHIANG MAI 000178

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI PHUM CASC ASEC TH
SUBJECT: PM'S PLANNED NOV. 29 VISIT GALVANIZES RED-SHIRTS TO ACT IN
CHIANG MAI

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 173 (DIALOGUE EXPANDS)

B. CHIANG MAI 3 (RED-SHIRTS FLEX)

CHIANG MAI 00000178 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
--------------

Summary and Comment

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1. (C) In the wake of anti-government red-shirt rhetoric
tantamount to death threats against Prime Minister Abhisit
Vejjajiva, red-shirts and supporters of former Prime Minister
Thaksin are gearing up for a potential showdown with security
forces in Chiang Mai during Prime Minister Abhisit's planned
November 29 visit to the province to address a national
gathering of the Thai Chambers of Commerce. Potential
flashpoints include the airport and Le Meridien Hotel (the
meeting venue). Unable to rule out protests turning violent,
the Consulate has issued a warden message and a security notice.




2. (C) Comment: Had the red-shirts stuck to their plan to
convene a national rally in Bangkok beginning on November 28
designed to bring down Abhisit's government, splits between
moderates and hardcore Thaksin supporters in Chiang Mai would
have become evident to even the most casual observer. The
former were planning to join the red-shirt rally in Bangkok,
while the latter, led by the militant Rak Chiang Mai 51 (RCM51),
were poised to spearhead this weekend's actions in Chiang Mai.
The moderates are likely to keep their distance from any
violence this weekend, but the numbers of Thaksin supporters
expected to travel to Chiang Mai from other provinces in the
wake of today's cancellation of the November 28 national rally
may only serve to embolden RCM51 and swell its ranks.




3. (C) Comment Cont.: Though its membership in the inner city
is declining, RCM51 is still capable of mobilizing up-country
masses to join rallies on important occasions, largely through
financial support from pro-Thaksin politicians. For now, its
voice resonates much more with the rural populace than does that

of less-well-funded moderate groups like the Confederation for
Grassroots Democracy and other red-shirt groups in the nascent
Coalition for a Peaceful and Livable Chiang Mai. We will
monitor the situation closely, but given RCM51's record of
clashes with the security forces and other political groups (Ref
B and previous),violent clashes are a real possibility. End
Summary and Comment.



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Come to Abhisit's Cremation

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4. (SBU) In a November 19 broadcast on his pro-Thaksin radio
station, RCM51 leader Phetcharawat Wattanaphongsirikul and a
Bangkok-based UDD ( United Front for Democracy Against
Dictatorship. Or "red-shirts") leader invited listeners to
attend a cremation ceremony for PM Abhisit on November 29 in
Chiang Mai, where he plans to address a national gathering of
the Thai Chambers of Commerce. Describing the action as
retribution for the Government's handling of the red-shirt
demonstrations in Bangkok and Pattaya in April, during which
they asserted (without presenting evidence) that demonstrators
were killed and their corpses disposed of, they called on
listeners to encircle the airport and eliminate "the root cause"
of the country's pain. In order to make this a reality, they
also called on all red-shirt groups to put aside their
ideological and tactical differences to join together. They
asserted that PM Abhisit could travel anywhere he wanted in
Thailand except the eight upper northern provinces.




5. (C) A moderate red-shirt leader told us on November 24 that
hardcore red-shirt protestors would be stationed at the airport
and at the conference venue (Le Meridien hotel). He claimed
they would be ready to set off fireworks and flares to prevent
the PM's plane from landing, and to forestall any evacuation
aircraft (helicopters) that may try to land or takeoff from the
meeting venue. Some red-shirt supporters at the airport would

CHIANG MAI 00000178 002.2 OF 003


also wear yellow shirts and provoke what would appear to be
red-on-yellow clashes, he asserted. He opined that these
actions are designed to provoke a violent reaction by local
authorities and security forces. The same source told us a day
later - after UDD's decision to cancel its November 28 Bangkok
rally - that many northern red-shirt supporters who had been
planning to travel to the Bangkok rally would now instead come
to Chiang Mai to participate in the anti-Abhisit protest on the
29th. Separately, the Chiang Mai Vice Governor also told us
that he expected participation in the Nov. 29 Chiang Mai rally
to swell with northern red-shirt supporters who otherwise would
have gone to the Bangkok demonstration.




6. (C) Separately, we note that while the Provincial Government
(RTG-appointed) is in favor of the PM's visit going ahead as
planned, the (elected) President of the Provincial
Administrative Organization and former Chiang Mai Mayor Boonlert
Buranupakorn - a known hardcore red-shirt supporter - has
publicly recommended that the PM not come to Chiang Mai.
According to the Vice Governor, Boonlert and pro-Thaksin Puea
Thai MPs are bankrolling RCM51 and other militant red-shirt
groups. (Note: Boonlert's nephew is the current Mayor, though
he is facing legal challenges surrounding his election.
Boonlert's brother is a former Thai Rak Thai MP and former
Chiang Mai mayor, and is one of the 111 TRT politicians banned
from holding political office.) The Vice Governor observed that
this network of financial support from pro-Thaksin politicians
provided RCM51 and other hardcore red-shirt groups in the north
with resources that moderate red-shirt groups could not match.



--------------

The Government Responds

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7. (C) Armed with an audio tape of the November 19 broadcast,
Chiang Mai's Provincial Government sought an arrest warrant for
Phetcharawat, which the court has yet to issue, arguing it needs
more evidence. Chiang Mai's Vice Governor blamed the provincial
police for not securing additional evidence, such as witnesses
who actually heard the broadcast. It remains unclear whether
the police are actively seeking such evidence, or whether the
pro-Thaksin bias of many rank and file police officers in Chiang
Mai will stall this investigation, as the Vice Governor claims
it has in other cases. (Note: Phetcharawat has complied with
other arrest warrants issued for him, but publicly stated that
he will not comply if one is issued in this case.)




8. (C) Beyond seeking the arrest warrant, the Vice Governor
outlined for us other measures that will be in place to prevent
protestors from interfering with the PM's program. On a
regional level, governments in nearby northern provinces are
collaborating on steps to slow down the flow of red-shirt
supporters into Chiang Mai - with the aim of delaying their
arrival until after Abhisit's departure (he is expected to be in
Chiang Mai from about 9:00 to noon on the 29th). Neighboring
provinces are also sending personnel and equipment to Chiang Mai
to enable local authorities to screen all protestors in the
vicinity of the meeting venue. The Vice Governor described
these as "full scale" measures. Separately, two Chiang Mai
Chamber of Commerce (COC) executives scheduled to participate in
the November 27-29 conference told us they are concerned for
their personal safety, and are making arrangements to escape
from the meeting venue on short notice if necessary.





-------------- --------------

Moderate Voices Speak Up, But Lack Influence

-------------- --------------




9. (C) Fearful of the violence that could unfold, Chamber of
Commerce and Federation of Thai Industries (COC and FTI)
representatives belonging to the Coalition for a Peaceful and

CHIANG MAI 00000178 003.2 OF 003


Livable Chiang Mai (Ref A) convened an urgent meeting of the
group on November 24. The Provincial Government did not send
representatives, but COC, FTI, yellow-shirt members and moderate
red-shirt leaders attended. They were joined this time by three
military intelligence officers, two religious leaders, and two
representatives of a network of local government officials. All
sides characterized the situation as worrisome, noting that
up-country red-shirt supporters were actively being mobilized on
instructions from Bangkok, and that there was no way to stop
them. The military participants remarked that they expected at
least 5,000 protestors to converge on Chiang Mai. (Comment:
this figure is likely to be revised upward following the
postponement of the November 28 red-shirt rally in Bangkok).




10. (C) The local government officials reportedly asked the COC
and FTI participants why the national Chamber gathering had to
take place now, and if they had given any thought to the costs
of providing security for the PM. COC and FTI participants
replied that plans had been laid as far back as 2007 for this
event, a venue had been set, and that it was very important for
them to have a dialogue directly with the PM. A moderate
red-shirt leader reportedly asked whether the two million plus
residents of Chiang Mai province should let themselves be held
hostage by a few hundred troublemakers, noting the importance of
the silent majority speaking out forcefully and renouncing
violence. Attendees agreed to hold a press conference on
November 25, which was attended by COC, FTI, and both yellow and
(moderate) red-shirt leaders. At that event, participants,
including the Vice Governor, appealed for calm, and for the
public not to disrupt the PM's visit.




11. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
MORROW