Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CHIANGMAI160
2009-10-22 09:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

RED-SHIRTS, YELLOW-SHIRTS CONTINUE DIALOGUE AT A SLOWER

Tags:  PREL PHUM KDEM ECON TH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6827
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0160/01 2950923
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P R 220923Z OCT 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1187
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1278
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000160 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2019
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM ECON TH
SUBJECT: RED-SHIRTS, YELLOW-SHIRTS CONTINUE DIALOGUE AT A SLOWER
PACE

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 138 (BEGIN DIALOGUE)

B. CHIANG MAI 132 (DOWNPLAY RECONCILIATION CALL)

CHIANG MAI 00000160 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (d)
--------------------------

Summary and Comment

--------------------------



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000160

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2019
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM ECON TH
SUBJECT: RED-SHIRTS, YELLOW-SHIRTS CONTINUE DIALOGUE AT A SLOWER
PACE

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 138 (BEGIN DIALOGUE)

B. CHIANG MAI 132 (DOWNPLAY RECONCILIATION CALL)

CHIANG MAI 00000160 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (d)
--------------

Summary and Comment

--------------




1. (C) In separate meetings with red-shirt and yellow-shirt
groups, leaders told CG they want to move ahead with their
fledgling reconciliation efforts, though they are afraid of a
backlash from extreme elements on both sides. Nonetheless, they
have met repeatedly, established a plan of work, and set goals.
Meanwhile, the private sector and academic representatives that
initially called for a reduction in violence for the benefit of
Chiang Mai's economy are becoming more involved.




2. (C) Comment: Though it is picking up steam, the dialogue
process is still fragile, and any number of unfortunate events
could derail it. Over the past few days, Rak Chiang Mai 51
(RCM51) - the pro-Thaksin group with the most violent record -
has verbally threatened red-shirt leaders participating in the
reconciliation process via its radio station. Separately, at a
two-day seminar organized in Chiang Mai by United Front for
Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) leaders from Bangkok
attended by approximately 800 red-shirt supporters from the
north, the UDD leaders intimated they wanted to provoke a
political showdown in Bangkok. Continued threats by RCM51 or
street violence between red-shirts and yellow-shirts could bring
the process to a screeching halt. We will continue to emphasize
the need for political demonstrations to be peaceful, and for
change to come about in accordance with the rule of law. End
Summary and Comment.



-------------- --

Consulate Engages Red-Shirts, Yellow-Shirts

-------------- --




3. (C) As part of Mission Thailand's effort to engage political
actors on both sides of the spectrum, CG opened separate
meetings with local red-shirt and yellow-shirt groups with an
identical message: we recognize that both sides have genuine
political differences; political demonstrations are normal in a

democracy, but they must be peaceful and not interfere with the
functioning of the government; change must take place
peacefully, be constitutional, and be undertaken in accordance
with the rule of law. He added that honest and open dialogue
are key to a functioning democracy, and expressed the hope that
red-shirt and yellow-shirt groups could find political space for
that exchange of views.




4. (C) Violence serves no one, continued the CG; it only harms
Thailand's image and damages the economy. The U.S. will not
take sides in Thailand's political debate, he added, but we will
speak out when actions taken by either side threaten democracy.
CG sited the U.S. response to the 2006 coup, and statements
condemning the 2008 seizures of Bangkok's airports and 2009
violence in Pataya as examples.




5. (C) Leaders of three red-shirt groups told the CG that
sustainable change can come about in Thailand only when the
voices of the majority are heard. On average, only 26 million
of Thailand's 35 million eligible voters cast ballots, they
asserted, with roughly 14 million voting for pro-red-shirt
candidates and some eight million for the Democrat Party, with
the rest of the vote divided among smaller groups. Although
both red-shirt and yellow-shirt groups think they can seize
power and run the country, neither side can sustain a grip on
power without partners, they argued. Hence, if the red-shirts
want to run Thailand, they need to find like-minded groups with
which to work. Both red-shirt and yellow-shirt leaders agreed
that in order to make tangible progress, both sides need to shed
their colors.




6. (C) The red-shirt leaders spoke of creating a "mass party"
that would not be a Phuea Thai puppet. We do not want our

CHIANG MAI 00000160 002.2 OF 002


members to be political pawns, one exclaimed. Of the 11 MPs
that represent Chiang Mai, only one is "acceptable," he added.
We need to involve the people directly in politics and promote
candidates who represent them in upcoming elections, he said.
Another opined that a mass red-shirt party might be able to find
common ground and work with the New Politics Party, though their
ideologies are very different.




7. (C) Both red-shirt and yellow-shirt leaders related that
they had met twice as a group to agree on goals. Since our
meeting with them, the two sides have met a third time. Though
they have not resolved their political differences, both sides
appear to be working towards an arrangement that would allow
them to peacefully express their views without intimidation by
the other.




8. (C) Both groups acknowledged they have undertaken this
effort mainly to help revive Chiang Mai's economy and prevent a
welcoming image for tourists. One yellow-shirt leader expressed
the hope that through joint public activities and the peaceful
passing of major upcoming festivals such as Loy Krathong, the
King's Birthday and Buddhist New Year, both sides could restore
international confidence in Chiang Mai's ability to play host to
tourists and show off its traditional culture. If all goes
well, he opined, we might be able to have a joint declaration
renouncing violence by Buddhist New Year (March 2010).




9. (SBU) Meanwhile, the private sector and academic figures who
issued the initial call for reconciliation between both sides
(Ref B) held a news conference on October 21 reaffirming their
support for efforts on both sides to revive Chiang Mai's economy
and promote civil society dialogue. [We'll have a read-out of
the conference tomorrow and will have something to add to this
para]



--------------

Obstacles Remain

--------------




10. (SBU) Despite this progress, several recent events have
highlighted the fragility of the dialogue process. Threats
against one red-shirt leader by the radical pro-Thaksin RCM51
group prompted him to pull out of a planning meeting the two
sides held on October 16. His withdrawal prevented both sides
and business groups such as the Chamber of Commerce and
Federation of Thai Industries from holding a press conference
they had planned for October 19. Meanwhile, in public comments
on October 20, the RCM51 leader stated that although he welcomed
efforts to revive Chiang Mai's economy and promote tourism, he
would not make peace with yellow-shirts or be seen with them in
public.




11. (SBU) In separate public comments on the same television
program, a yellow-shirt representative noted her group's desire
to find political space for both sides to express their views
peacefully and without fear of intimidation by the other. Both
leaders were reserved about the possibility of reconciliation.




12. (C) Meanwhile, UDD leaders from Bangkok told an 800-strong
crowd at Chiang Mai's sports stadium that they are planning for
a major rally in Bangkok in the next few weeks to press for new
elections as soon as possible. A local red-shirt leader who
attended the sessions confided that he believes the UDD will try
to force the governing coalition from power, either by
instigating red-yellow violence on the streets of Bangkok,
thereby provoking a military response, or by simply forcing the
coalition to step down. Our contact told us that if this
"showdown" takes place, it could reverse the progress that
red-shirt and yellow-shirt groups in Chiang Mai have made in
recent weeks. He argued at the stadium for a reconsideration of
the UDD's plan, but his calls were ignored, he said.
ANDERSON