RED-SHIRTS, YELLOW-SHIRTS BEGIN DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHIANG MAI 000138

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/29/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SOCI KDEM PROP TH
SUBJECT: RED-SHIRTS, YELLOW-SHIRTS BEGIN DIALOGUE

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 132 (DOWNPLAY RECONCILIATION CALL)

B. CHIANG MAI 93 (U.S. ACADEMIC DISCUSSES)

C. 08 CHIANG MAI 178 (PRO AND ANTI-THAKSIN)

D. CHIANG MAI 59 (COMMUNITY RADIO STATIONS)

E. CHIANG MAI 32 (REDS SPOIL TWO)

F. CHIANG MAI 24 (BY-ELECTIONS, REDS AND MIGRANTS)

G. CHIANG MAI 18 (TOUGHER TIMES AHEAD)

H. CHIANG MAI 3 (RED-SHIRTS FLEX)

I. 08 CHIANG MAI 168 (POLITICAL TEMPERATURE)

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CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (d)
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Summary and Comment

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1. (C) Spurred on by a U.S. speaker program that focused on the
role of opposition political parties and non-party actors (Ref
B),members of red-shirt and yellow-shirt groups in Chiang Mai
held an initial meeting on September 23 to iron out some
differences and search for common ground. Though they stressed
the need to keep the dialogue low-profile for fear of a backlash
from more extremist elements on both sides of the spectrum,
participants agreed to meet again and to expand the circle to
include private sector representatives and respected academics,
with the goal of preventing local politics from further harming
Chiang Mai's economy.




2. (C) Comment: We are gratified that participants on both
sides cited the Mission-sponsored speaker program (Ref B) as
empowering them to realize that they should and could find
common ground for Chiang Mai's benefit. Though their meeting is
a positive first step, much work remains to be done. Extremist
elements in both camps have personalized their political
differences, and have personal interests that stand to be harmed
if true political reconciliation takes hold. We will
nonetheless continue to impress upon actors on both sides that
divergent views and the ability to express them, when done
peacefully, is a large part of what makes democracies vibrant
and flourishing, and to encourage their nascent reconciliatory
efforts. End Summary and Comment.



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Getting Red-shirts and Yellow-shirts Together

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3. (C) Differences in the political views of anti-government
red-shirts and anti-Thaksin yellow-shirts have played out on
Thailand's streets several times in recent years, most notably
during the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy's (PAD)
2008 seizure of Government House and Bangkok's airports, and the
red-shirt riots in Bangkok and Pattaya earlier this year. In
Chiang Mai, tensions have run particularly high, with the most
egregious violence taking place in November 2008, when a mob of
red-shirts took the father of the local pro-PAD community radio
station out of his car and subsequently killed him (see Refs E-I
for more on the dynamics between the red-shirt and yellow-shirt
groups in Chiang Mai). It wasn't until June 2009 that actors on
both sides in Chiang Mai had a serious political discussion with
each other. That exchange of views took place as part of a
Mission-sponsored State Department Speaker Program featuring
University of California-Davis professor Larry Berman, who
spoke at various locales in Thailand last June on the role of
opposition parties and non-party actors in a democracy (Ref B).
When Dr. Berman visited Chiang Mai, the Consulate brought
together a group of red-shirt and yellow-shirt leaders who,
after Berman's remarks, engaged with him in a discussion of the
institutional parameters critical to a functioning democracy.
The participants later praised Dr. Berman's program, noting it
had convinced them that they could and should work together to
find common ground on social, economic and political issues.



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Who Was At the Table?

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4. (C) This event was the catalyst for a September 23 meeting
in Chiang Mai, at which representatives of the People's Alliance
for Democracy (PAD) and Campaign for Popular Democracy (CPD) on
the yellow-shirt side, and the Northern Grassroots Confederation
(NGC) on the red-shirt side, met for two and a half hours to
discuss their differences and search for common ground.
According to a neutral participant who served as moderator for
the meeting, the discussions were amicable, constructive and
open-minded.




5. (C) Representing the yellow-shirts were CPD Acting
Secretary-General Suriyan Tongnu-ied and PAD Chiang Mai
Coordinator Phongphan Kongkham. The red-shirt groups were
represented by NGC Chairman Phromsak Saengpho, who also speaks
for red-shirt community radio 89.5 FM, as well as Somchat
Malaihuan (editor of "Red Front" magazine and spokesman for
red-shirt radio 105.5 FM) and former Chiang Mai University
professor Chiraporn Chankham. The CPD's Suriyan claims to have
close links to the PAD's Phiphop Thongchai (Ref C),while we see
the NGC's Phromsak as very close to banned Thai Rak Thai
politician Chaturon Chaisang. Phromsak and his red-shirt group,
though they do not advocate violence, believe that the elites
and monarchy need to be overthrown, and subscribe to traditional
Communist ideology.



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What Was On It?

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6. (C) The NGC's Phromsak admitted that the national red-shirt
movement was largely "disoriented, lacking an agenda, and
fraught with violence." The movement served politicians'
interests, he added, not those of the people. Achievement of
its political goals via violence was not a victory for the Thai
people, and was also not sustainable, he opined. Phromsak
characterized national red-shirt leaders Veera Musikapong,
Jatuporn Prompan and Nattawut Saikua as representatives of the
opposition Phuea Thai Party, not the people. Phromsak made
similarly derogatory statements about the leader of the local
Rak Chiang Mai 51 (RCM51) red-shirt group - Phetcharawat
Wattanapongsirikul - saying that he was more interested in
money-making than benefiting the masses. RCM51 relies only on
money from Thaksin, Phromsak noted, adding that the politicians
know how to take advantage of the people's loyalty to him.




7. (C) For his part, the yellow-shirt CPD's Suriyan focused his
initial comments on what he called Thailand's evolving center of
power . The main issue at hand was the question of succession
of "the most revered institution" (an overt reference to the
King). Focus on those individuals at the center of the
succession issue threatened to sideline both the red-shirts and
yellow-shirts, he opined. The "blue-shirts" (associated with
former Thaksin ally and current government coalition partner
Newin Chidchob) were also a concern, Suriyan speculated, as they
could target both the yellow and red-shirts in an effort to
assert themselves as the predominant force in Thai politics.




8. (C) "Red Front" magazine's Somchat opined that the two sides
shared common ground in that they both wanted "new" politics and
to see the Thai State recreated, with the goal of realizing true
democracy. Somchat noted that one area both sides agreed on was
that land-grabbing by foreign capitalists at the expense of
farmers had to be stopped. Somchat and yellow-shirt Suriyan
also both agreed on the need to curtail the influence of
politicians, and strengthen local people's participation in
politics.




9. (C) Both groups agreed on two principles moving forward:
they must be free to peacefully express their political views
without fear of intimidation/harassment from the other; and they
should seek common ground around which they could hold joint
activities and bring outsiders into the fold. Furthermore, they
agreed that the successful organization of a particular activity
by one group did not necessarily mean a defeat for the other.
Rather, it highlighted the need to respect each other's rights

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and freedoms.




10. (C) Participants discussed two concrete areas in which they
could immediately begin working together to reduce tension - the
media and local economy. With regard to the media, they agreed
on the need to counter "misinformation" spread by the red-shirt
RCM51 radio station and its pro-PAD counterpart (Refs C-D).
Somchat and Phromsak noted that a total of five red-shirt
stations could join this effort, hopefully marginalizing RCM51.
More importantly, print publications associated with these five
stations would also follow suit and try to counteract false
propaganda. Both sides agreed that the next step would be to
counter misinformation in the general public, and that these
measures would be more effective than strengthened law
enforcement measures undertaken by Provincial authorities.




11. (C) Regarding Chiang Mai's economy, participants agreed to
explore holding a public forum to discuss problems facing the
urban middle class, and to include private sector
representatives in the discussion. Their goal is to reestablish
Chiang Mai's image as a thriving, peaceful area, rather than an
"unruly" one. They expressed interest in having representatives
from hotel and tourism associations participate in the forum.



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What's Next?

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12. (C) Both sides agreed to meet again to discuss the proposed
program of work in greater detail, and to expand the dialogue to
include selected business community representatives. Chiang
Mai's Chamber of Commerce and Federation of Thai Industries were
mentioned as possible partners. (Per Ref A, these groups had
joined local academics and hotel/tourism groups to issue a
public statement calling for reconciliation between Chiang Mai's
yellow-shirts and red-shirts). Participants also stressed the
need to keep the dialogue low-profile for now, fearing that
publicizing it could lead to a backlash from more extremist
elements on both sides.

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Provincial Government, Private Sector React

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13. (C) Chiang Mai's Vice Governor for Security Affairs told
Pol/Econ Chief on September 25 that he expected things between
red-shirts and yellow-shirts to calm down. He sung the praises
of strengthened law enforcement, noting that in the wake of the
agreement he struck with community radio stations in May (Ref
D),their rhetoric had toned down significantly. On September
24, the head of the local chapter of the Federation of Thai
Industries told P/E Chief that he too expected both groups would
step back from confrontation. (Note: it's unclear whether
either contact was aware of the September 23
red-shirt/yellow-shirt meeting).




14. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
MORROW