BURMA: A KNU PERSPECTIVE ON ETHNICS, PEACE TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000136

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/21/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PHUM BM TH
SUBJECT: BURMA: A KNU PERSPECTIVE ON ETHNICS, PEACE TALKS

REF: A. BANGKOK 1939 (AMBASSADOR ENGAGES FM KASIT)

B. CHIANG MAI 130 (SHAN STATE UPDATE)

C. CHIANG MAI 107 (FIGHTERS DEFECT, OFFENSIVE UNLIKELY)

D. CHIANG MAI 94 (KNU REPORTS)

CHIANG MAI 00000136 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
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Summary and Comment

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1. (C) In a wide-ranging discussion on September 17, Ner Da
Mya, the son of late Karen National Union (KNU) Chairman General
Bo Mya, told us that despite the KNU's militarily weakened
state, conflict in Karen State could go on for years. He added
that the prospect of peace talks between the Burmese regime and
KNU is slim, and that the Burma Army may attack the KNU's Fifth
Brigade in the near future. He also pleaded for the U.S. or
Thailand to play a coordinating role among the ethnic groups to
militarily resist the Burmese regime.




2. (C) Comment: For some time now, several contacts have
speculated on when/where the Burma Army would attack one ethnic
group or the other (Refs B-D). From the Thai side of the
border, we have yet to see definitive evidence that any such
attack is imminent, though we have received credible reports of
the Burma Army reinforcing positions close to the border area
with Chiang Mai Province. We have no indication the Burmese
request to FM Kasit Piromya to renew facilitation of talks
between the Burmese regime and KNU (Ref A) has led to any
concrete results. End Summary and Comment.



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The Conflict Won't End Soon

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3. (C) According to Ner Da, despite the anti-regime KNU's
military weakness, the conflict in Burma's Karen State could go
on for years. "We are running out of weapons and ammunition,
and we don't have any bases" he said, and it will be difficult
for us to defeat the Burma Army (BA) in Karen State. On the
other hand, because of the KNU's successful use of guerrilla
tactics, the regime cannot defeat us either, he opined. He
assessed that without a military solution, victory for either
side in the over 50 years of fighting between the KNU and BA was
not in sight. For its part, he said BA troops have low morale
and do not want to fight. They use psychological operations
against us, he asserted, and said the KNU needs to do the same.




4. (C) Ner Da corroborated reports (Ref C) that some fighters
from the pro-regime Democratic Karen Buddhist Army had defected
back to the KNU. He asserted, however, that these fighters had
not been assimilated into KNU ranks, lamenting that "they are
the first to flee when the BA attacks us." As for the
pro-regime KNU/KNLA Peace Council, Ner Da asserted that none of
its fighters had rejoined the KNU.




5. (C) Some small skirmishes have taken place recently in the
KNU's Fifth Brigade area, Ner Da stated, noting that he expected
the BA's next attack against the KNU would come in that area,
though he could not specify when. If the BA attacks Eh Htu Hta
(a camp housing some 4,000 IDPs on the Burma side of the Salween
River across from Thailand's Mae Hong Son Province),we will be
unable to defend it, he bemoaned. Ner Da also noted that BA
troops had not abandoned the KNU bases they took over in June
2009, thereby preventing the KNU from recovering those outposts
as it had successfully done after losing bases to previous BA
offensives.



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No Peace Talks for Now

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CHIANG MAI 00000136 002.2 OF 002





6. (C) In response to a question about the possibility of
starting peace talks between the Burmese regime and the KNU, Ner
Da characterized the prospects as nonexistent for the
time-being. "When my father went to Rangoon, there was a
process and it seemed like the regime wanted to negotiate," he
said. "Now, there are no mediators, and nothing to talk about,"
he added. Separately, Royal Thai Army contacts told us that
army units based in Mae Sot (Tak Province) have in recent months
repeatedly held several KNU battalion commanders in temporary
custody, urging them to stop "making trouble" for the Thai-Burma
bilateral relationship. Our RTA contacts admitted that the
decision to take this step was made locally, without
instructions from Bangkok. Another KNU contact alleged on
September 23 that pro-Burmese regime Democratic Karen Buddhist
Army soldiers had been hired to assassinate KNU leaders inside
Thailand.



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We Need A Coordinator and Money

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7. (C) Turning to the lack of cooperation among the ethnic
armed groups, Ner Da desperately appealed for the U.S. or
Thailand to help coordinate ethnic military resistance against
the Burmese regime. The Burma Army's morale is low, the general
public doesn't like the current regime, and those ethnic groups
that have ceasefires with the regime are unhappy with the
arrangement, he argued. (Note: A report produced by the
National Democratic Front -- a coalition of ethnic opposition
groups -- on various ceasefire groups seems to lend credence to
the last of these assertions.) We need money to mount psy-ops
against the BA, he pleaded. It would be easy for us to defeat
the regime if we had money, weapons, and a coordination
mechanism, he claimed. P/E Chief reminded Ner Da that it is USG
policy not to fund armed resistance against the Burmese regime.




8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Bangkok and
Rangoon.
MORROW