Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CHIANGMAI130
2009-09-09 08:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

SHAN STATE UPDATE: BURMA ARMY COULD TARGET SHAN FIGHTERS

Tags:  PREL PGOV MOPS PREF BM CH TH 
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VZCZCXRO1230
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0130/01 2520804
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P R 090804Z SEP 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1149
INFO RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0088
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0068
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1232
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHIANG MAI 000130 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WALTON
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, IO AND DRL
PACOM FOR FPA
GENEVA FOR RMA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/3/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PREF BM CH TH
SUBJECT: SHAN STATE UPDATE: BURMA ARMY COULD TARGET SHAN FIGHTERS
NEXT

REF: A. Rangoon 575 (Kokang Update)

B. Rangoon 573 (Peace in Kokang Region)

C. Rangoon 567 (Kokang Situation Tense)

D. Embassy Bangkok August 28 O/I

CHIANG MAI 00000130 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
--------------------------

Summary and Comment

--------------------------



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHIANG MAI 000130

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WALTON
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, IO AND DRL
PACOM FOR FPA
GENEVA FOR RMA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/3/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PREF BM CH TH
SUBJECT: SHAN STATE UPDATE: BURMA ARMY COULD TARGET SHAN FIGHTERS
NEXT

REF: A. Rangoon 575 (Kokang Update)

B. Rangoon 573 (Peace in Kokang Region)

C. Rangoon 567 (Kokang Situation Tense)

D. Embassy Bangkok August 28 O/I

CHIANG MAI 00000130 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
--------------

Summary and Comment

--------------




1. (C) Several ethnic Wa troops reportedly supported the Kokang
in the latter's fighting against the Burma Army (BA) August
27-29, according to a knowledgeable expatriate source based in
Chiang Mai. The fighting displaced approximately 50,000 people,
according to his sources. Our contact also said the Shan State
Army-South (SSA-S) is preparing itself for what it sees as
imminent combat with the Burma Army, and is expecting Wa troops
based in southern Shan State to support them against the BA.
Though our source believes the Wa in northern Shan State are
safe from attack at this time, he made it clear northern Wa
leaders have told him they will not shy away from a fight if the
Burma Army encroaches on "one centimeter" of their territory.




2. (C) Comment: If these predictions regarding conflict in
southern Shan State materialize, thousands of IDPs are likely to
seek refuge in Thailand, entering through Chiang Mai and Chiang
Rai Provinces. Few camp-like sites suitable for housing
refugees exist in these provinces. Although there is space
available at the Site 1 camp in Mae Hong Son Province, that camp
is predominantly Karenni, and an influx of Shan would likely
cause tensions.




3. (C) Comment Cont.: Embassy Rangoon's sources have been
unable to confirm that ethnic Wa troops participated in the
fighting between the Burma Army and Kokang. Any combat between
the Wa and BA would have serious consequences. Embassy Rangoon
also notes the figure of 50,000 people displaced by the late
August fighting seems high, and has not been corroborated by its

contacts. Embassy Rangoon reports the United Wa State Army
(UWSA) has reinforced its troops near the Nam Tit/ Chin Shwe Haw
border crossing area in Special Region Number Two in response to
Burma Army troop reinforcements in that region. However, no
fighting has occurred there. End Summary and Comment.



--------------

It Wasn't Just the Kokang

--------------




4. (C) According to our contact, tensions between the Kokang
and Burmese security forces rose to a fever pitch on August 8
when the Kokang's Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
(MNDAA) prevented a mixed unit of police and Burma Army troops
from raiding the home of its Chairman, Peng Jiasheng, a known
drug trafficker, where they expected to find weapons and
narcotics. The Kokang also took dozens of police officers
hostage, subsequently executing 12 at point-blank range.
Affronted by this incident, the Burma Army (BA) responded by
attacking the MNDAA on August 26. The ensuing engagements, the
heaviest of which took place August 27-29, included ethnic Wa
fighters dressed in Kokang uniforms and taking up arms against
the BA, he said.




5. (C) Casualties on the Wa side were high, according to our
contact; 17 fatalities with some 30 injured. However, he put
the number of BA casualties much higher -- anywhere from 100-200

CHIANG MAI 00000130 002.2 OF 003


-- due to the fortifications of the Kokang positions, BA
unfamiliarity with the rugged terrain, and the use of
anti-tank/anti-personnel mines by the Wa and Kokang. Although
China initially sealed the border area, it was eventually
opened, and some 30,000 refugees crossed, according to his
sources. An additional 20,000 IDPs crossed into Wa territory
and the Shan State capital Lashio, he asserted. He corroborated
reports that some IDPs have returned, but admitted he did not
have a good handle on precisely how many.




6. (C) Our contact asserted that this heavy-handed response on
the part of the BA was somewhat surprising. When Burmese
General Maung Aye traveled to China earlier this summer, the
Chinese made it clear that Burma had to tread lightly when
operating against ethnic groups along the China border.
Beijing, he said, was concerned that 1) refugees would cross
into China and 2) oppression of their ethnic brethren might
spark uprisings among ethnic minority populations residing in
areas of China across from Kokang and Wa territory. (Comment:
Embassy Rangoon notes that Maung Aye is not favorably disposed
toward China, and has been leading the fight against ethnic
insurgencies for years. These factors, when combined with
Kokang involvement in the drug trade and the execution of
Burmese police, provide plenty of motivation for the late August
fighting.)



--------------

The SSA-S May Be Next

--------------




7. (C) On September 2, SSA-S leaders told our contact they
expected the BA would attack them and the "southern" Wa in the
near future. (Comment: It is unclear whether this attack would
be qualitatively different from the constant engagements between
the SSA-S and BA, i.e. perhaps an attempt to eliminate the SSA-S
altogether.) They reported that some 5,000 BA troops have moved
into the area along the border between Shan State and Thailand,
and that General Maung Aye traveled to Keng Tung on August 23
for discussions with BA troop commanders. They also reported
that per its standard practice, the BA is "absorbing" militia
units into its ranks, and preparing to issue these fighters
weapons. Separately, the Thai press has begun to speculate
about the BA's next move and the refugee flows that would result
from new fighting, with some publications stating that the UWSA
will be the BA's next target.




8. (C) Our contact estimated southern Wa and SSA-S strength in
the area at 4,000 troops, adding that they were well-armed, had
fortified their defenses, and were holding positions on high
ground that would give them the advantage over attacking troops
coming from lower elevation areas. (Comment: Embassy Rangoon
cannot verify this figure.) He predicted that if fighting takes
place, some 50,000 individuals would be displaced, many of whom
would likely flee to Thailand. According to his Thai
intelligence contacts, Provincial governments in Chiang Mai and
Chiang Rai have begun making initial preparations to deal with a
potential influx of refugees.




9. (C) Fighting in southern Shan State could last for months,
he opined. However, the northern Wa would be unable to assist
in the south, he asserted, noting that a lack of passable roads
and a limited number of routes would make it relatively easy for
the BA to cut northern Wa territory off from southern Shan
State. Northern Wa leaders told him they were prepared to sit
tight if fighting in the south broke out, but that they would
fight if the BA encroached on northern Wa territory.


CHIANG MAI 00000130 003.2 OF 003





10. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Rangoon and
Bangkok.
MORROW