Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CHIANGMAI107
2009-07-22 06:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

BURMA: FIGHTERS DEFECT TO KNU; OFFENSIVE UNLIKELY FOR NOW

Tags:  PREL PGOV MOPS BM TH 
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VZCZCXRO3121
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0107 2030618
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P R 220618Z JUL 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1117
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1199
C O N F I D E N T I A L CHIANG MAI 000107 

SIPDIS

PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/17/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BM TH
SUBJECT: BURMA: FIGHTERS DEFECT TO KNU; OFFENSIVE UNLIKELY FOR NOW

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 94 (KNU REPORTS)

B. CHIANG MAI 71 (ETHNIC ARMED GROUPS RETHINKING)

C. CHIANG MAI 80 (FIGHTING WANING; DISPLACES)

CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



-----------------------------------
Summary and Comment
-----------------------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L CHIANG MAI 000107

SIPDIS

PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/17/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BM TH
SUBJECT: BURMA: FIGHTERS DEFECT TO KNU; OFFENSIVE UNLIKELY FOR NOW

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 94 (KNU REPORTS)

B. CHIANG MAI 71 (ETHNIC ARMED GROUPS RETHINKING)

C. CHIANG MAI 80 (FIGHTING WANING; DISPLACES)

CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



--------------
Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (C) Contrary to what the Karen National Union (KNU -- an
armed resistance group operating along the Thai-Burma border)
reported last week, Thai authorities assert that a renewed
offensive by the Burmese regime and its proxy -- the DKBA
(Democratic Karen Buddhist Army) is unlikely in the immediate
future. Our contacts also told us that nearly 100 DKBA soldiers
have defected to the KNU since July 7.


2. (C) Comment: Thai and KNU contacts speculate that these
defections may be the precursor to a larger-scale realignment of
forces in Karen State. Contacts note that such defections could
continue if the regime continues to rein in the DKBA and
intensifies its efforts to incorporate it into a border guard
force (Ref B). End Summary and Comment.

--------------
Offensive Unlikely for Now
--------------


3. (C) Thai National Intelligence Agency and Royal Thai Army
Intelligence contacts told us that the KNU's Seventh Brigade
area is calm, and that Burma Army (BA) troops that supported the
regime/DKBA offensive in the area in June (Ref C) have retreated
to more inland positions. Currently, only small units of BA and
DKBA troops remain, and neither side appears to be looking to
pick a fight. Our contacts observed that the battle was now
shifting from the military sphere to winning over the hearts and
minds of the people. The KNU is slowly retaking areas it lost
during the June fighting, but according to our contacts, is
unlikely to directly confront the DKBA in open-field combat due
to the fact that the KNU would be out-manned and out-gunned.
Our contacts cited rugged, muddy terrain as another factor
limiting offensive operations in the area. They also said they
had no indication a regime-led offensive against the KNU in
Karen State was imminent.

--------------
Defections
--------------


4. (C) Meanwhile, both our Thai contacts and the KNU reported
that several DKBA soldiers defected to the KNU between July
7-12. Many brought weapons with them, though we have no further
information on the types of armaments. According to Thai
authorities, 94 defected in the five day period. Both the KNU
and Thai military believe that more defections are likely.


5. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Rangoon.

ANDERSON