BHARAT BALLOT 09: MARCH 12 SOUTHERN SNAPSHOTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000076

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: MARCH 12 SOUTHERN SNAPSHOTS

REF: A) CHENNAI 066; B) CHENNAI 059


1. (U) Below is a compilation of election highlights from Consulate
General Chennai that did not feature in our other reporting on
India's upcoming elections:

-- Tamil Nadu: Congress/DMK partnership set to reprise 2004's
grand alliance?

-- Tamil Nadu: a brief fast for Sri Lankan Tamils

-- Kerala: infighting over candidates hurts Congress's chances to
rout CPM

-- Kerala: Rahul's big campaign speech doesn't meet expectations

-- Andhra Pradesh: Election Commission symbol decision hurts Praja
Rajyam's prospects

Tamil Nadu: Congress/DMK partnership
set to reprise 2004's grand alliance?
--------------


1. (U) In 2004 the DMK and Congress parties swept the parliamentary
elections by assembling a broad-based coalition of parties which
included the Tamil Nadu-based PMK and MDMK parties and the state
affiliates of the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party
of India (Marxist). But the alliance crumbled over time: the MDMK
defected to the opposition shortly after the 2004 elections; the DMK
and PMK broke ties in June 2008 after a protracted feud; and the
communist parties withdrew support from the Congress-led United
Progressive Alliance (UPA) in August 2008 over U.S.-India civil
nuclear cooperation. Tamil Nadu's media is now abuzz with rumors
that Congress and the DMK are on the verge of constructing another
broad coalition by bringing the PMK back into the fold and replacing
the MDMK and communist parties with an important new player on the
Tamil Nadu scene, the DMDK founded by Tamil film star Vijayakanth.



2. (U) The hard feelings that led to the DMK-PMK split, largely the
result of protracted sniping between the parties' respective leaders
(DMK Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi and PMK founder S. Ramadoss),
appear to have been smoothed over. On March 6, Ambumani Ramadoss,
son of PMK founder S. Ramadoss and the Union Minister of Health and
Family Welfare in the UPA government, suggested that the PMK would
stay with Congress and the DMK, telling a press conference that "the
UPA will come back to power." Rumors of Vijayakanth's DMDK joining
the Congress/DMK combine started with the visit of the Tamil Nadu
Congress Committee President to a senior DMDK leader's house.
Speculation increased when Union Minister for Statistics and Program
Implementation G.K. Vasan, who is the Tamil Nadu Congress Party's
most prominent leader, said "good news will be coming soon."
Comment: Although the makeup of pre-poll alliances is difficult to
predict, especially in Tamil Nadu's free-wheeling non-ideological
environment, these are strong indications that the DMK and Congress
are on the road to replicating another version of the broad-based
coalition that swept Tamil Nadu's parliamentary elections in 2004.
The combination of DMK, Congress, PMK, and DMDK would be a very
formidable one that would go a long way to overcoming the
anti-incumbency, corruption allegations, and concern for Sri Lankan
Tamils that weigh down the DMK and Congress in Tamil Nadu. End
comment.

Tamil Nadu: a brief fast for Sri Lankan Tamils
--------------


3. (SBU) Tamil Nadu Opposition leader J. Jayalalithaa held a
widely-publicized eight hour fast on March 10 condemning the central
and state governments for remaining "mute spectators" to the killing
of Tamils in Sri Lanka. She demanded an immediate ceasefire on the
island and highlighted the severe shortage of food and medicine
facing Sri Lanka's Tamils. While Jayalalithaa fasted in Chennai,
senior AIADMK officials led similar hunger-strikes throughout Tamil
Nadu and the party collected donations to provide relief to the
Tamils. Many in Tamil Nadu saw the brief fast as a political stunt.
Jayalalithaa is seen as relatively unresponsive to the concerns of
Sri Lanka's Tamils largely on account of her history of criticizing
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Her decision to fast over Sri

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Lanka shows the recent resonance of the issue in the state's
politics (ref B); despite her own ambivalence about Sri Lanka,
Jayalalithaa senses an opportunity to further embarrass DMK Chief
Minister Karunanidhi. Her rival has long professed his solidarity
with the Sri Lankan Tamils (seeing himself as "the Father of World
Tamils") but has come under fire as of late for not sufficiently
wielding his influence in New Delhi to pressure Sri Lanka to agree
to a ceasefire. Jayalalithaa's effort to exploit the Sri Lanka
issue, however, has been received with a healthy dose of cynicism.
One internet poster commented that "a day-long fast is nothing.
Most people in Tamil Nadu eat only every other day . . . Come on
sister, FAST UNTO DEATH."

Kerala: infighting over candidates
hurts Congress's chances to rout CPM
--------------


4. (SBU) The Kerala Congress Party's trouble with candidate
selection is threatening its ability to take advantage of the
struggles of its rival, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (ref
C). Candidates with the best chance of winning are having trouble
getting party tickets because of intraparty rivalries and interest
group pressure tactics. A senior media contact told post that the
Congress-led United Democratic Front could squander its upper hand
in the upcoming elections. He cited the example of Ernakulam
(Cochin) where a strong candidate in the Latin Catholic-dominated
constituency -- the up-and-coming Hybee Eden, President of the
National Students Union of India and member of the Latin Catholic
church -- is having difficulty securing a ticket. Eden is the son
of a former Member of Parliament from Ernakulam who won every
election he ever contested there. According to a media contact, KV
Thomas, a long-time Congress party leader from the Latin Catholic
church, spent several days camped out in New Delhi lobbying against
Eden. Thomas apparently fears losing his position as the preeminent
Latin Catholic leader in the Kerala Congress party.


5. (SBU) In Kerala's Trichur constituency, the dominant Syrian
Catholic Church is in a bitter tussle with Congress's state
leadership over candidate selection. The Church supports Tom
Vadakkan, a Secretary in the All India Congress Committtee (AICC)
who operates mostly out of Delhi. Many local Congress leaders view
Vadakkan as a candidate imposed on the state party by New Delhi and
lacking experience with Kerala's grassroots. Vadakkan was dressed
down at a Congress party meeting in New Delhi by a party member who
said "chai-walas (tea-boys) and sweepers of the AICC should not be
made candidates in Kerala." Extensive media coverage in Kerala of
the "chai-wala" insult exacerbated Vadakkan's humiliation. The
Church has mounted a pressure campaign on Vadakkan's behalf, leading
State Congress President Ramesh Chennithala to risk the ire of this
important Congress constituency suggesting the Church needed to stay
out of the candidate selection debate. The Congress party finds
itself in a tough spot with the Vadakkan candidacy as a decision
either way will alienate some part of its core support base --
either Syrian Catholics or committed party workers.

Kerala: Rahul doesn't live up to high expectations
--------------


6. (SBU) Rahul Gandhi headlined a massive rally in
Thiruvananthapuram kicking off the Kerala Congress Party's election
campaign. The tens of thousands of Congress supporters in
attendance gave Gandhi a rousing reception hailing him as
"tomorrow's leader." Top Congress leaders, including Defense
Minister A.K. Antony, told the crowd that Gandhi, a symbol of youth
and dynamism, would lead the country forward. Addressing the rally,
Gandhi emphasized his efforts to change Indian politics, starting
with the Youth Congress and the National Students Union of India.
Journalists told post that despite the crowd's enthusiastic cheering
for the young leader, Gandhi failed to deliver the stirring
performance that the crowd expected.

Andhra Pradesh: Election Commission
symbol decision hurts Praja Rajyam's prospects
--------------


7. (U) Praja Rajyam, the political party founded in 2008 by popular
Telugu film star Chiranjeevi, suffered a major setback as the
Election Commission ruled that the new party is not eligible for a

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"common symbol" for the upcoming elections. The ruling bars the
party's candidates from using a common emblem to identify themselves
on the ballot. The Election Commission found that Praja Rajyam did
not meet the requirement of having earned a minimum prescribed
percentage of the votes in at least one previous election. The
party claims the requirement is unconstitutional, arguing that it is
unfair to deny a common symbol to a party which has registered, by
its own count, 5 million members in the state.

8. (U) Symbols are critical in Indian elections because the
substantial portion of the electorate that is illiterate relies on
them to identify their preferred candidate. Praja Rajyam is
unlikely to prevail in its effort to overturn the Election
Commission's decision, which will leave the party in a serious bind.
Without a common symbol the party's candidates will have to run as
a series of independent candidates, each with their own symbol
assigned to them by lottery. Voter confusion will be likely as they
will have a difficult time identifying Praja Rajyam candidates.
After the denial of Praja Rajyam's common symbol it is difficult to
imagine the party making a major impact on the upcoming elections.

SIMKIN