BHARAT BALLOT 09: SETTING THE SCENE FOR SOUTH INDIA'S

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SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: SETTING THE SCENE FOR SOUTH INDIA'S
VOTE


1. (SBU) Summary: Following the Election Commission's announcement
of national election dates (April 16 - May 13),we have composed
brief political scenesetters for the four South Indian states:
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. These four
states, with a combined population of roughly 250 million, account
for nearly a quarter of India's population. They are linguistically
distinct and each possesses unique political dynamics. Kerala's
election will be held on April 16, Andhra Pradesh on April 16 and
23, Karnataka on April 23 and 30, and Tamil Nadu on May 13. Votes
from across India will be counted on May 16. South India was
critical for the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2004;
the alliance scored decisive victories in the region's biggest
states, winning 35 of 42 seats in Andhra Pradesh and all 39 of Tamil
Nadu's seats. In the coming weeks, we will submit reports that
will highlight many of the key issues and complexities that drive
politics in this critical region. End Summary.

Andhra Pradesh: Congress defending unprecedented 2004 gains
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2. (SBU) Andhra Pradesh is the largest state in South India, with 42
seats in the Lok Sabha. In addition to the national election, it is
holding state elections concurrently, potentially heralding a
complete transformation of the state's political representation.
The Congress party is a major player in Andhra Pradesh and defending
large majorities on both the state and national level against a
coalition of several local parties. The BJP, as in most of South
India, has a very weak presence in the state.


3. (SBU) In the 2004 national and state elections, the Congress
Party, in concert with the Telangana Rastra Samiti (TRS),defeated
the longtime ruling party, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and secured
remarkable majorities: Congress alone won 63 percent of the state's
legislative assembly seats and 29 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats.
The TRS has, however, since allied with the TDP. The 2009
elections will be a three-siQ contest: the incumbent Congress, a
"Grand Alliance" of TDP, TRS, and a host of smaller parties, and a
coalition led by Praja Rajyam, an untested new party formed by a
popular actor, Chiranjeevi.


4. (SBU) In advance of the 2009 elections, the issue of statehood
for Telangana, a predominantly rural region in northern Andhra
Pradesh that contains the state capital, Hyderabad, has emerged as
the electoral focal point. The Grand Alliance has coalesced in
favor of statehood - even the TDP, which had long opposed a separate
state. Congress's statements have remained vague and noncommittal
on the issue, despite having won office in 2004 on the promise of an
independent Telangana. Its ability to appease Telangana supporters
or shift attention to the dizzying array of social programs
implemented by its popular Chief Minister YSR Reddy will be a key
determinant of its electoral prospects in Andhra Pradesh.

Karnataka: BJP's southern hope
--------------


5. (SBU) The three primary contenders in Karnataka politics are the
two main national parties (Congress and the BJP) and a local party,
the Janata Dal--Secular (JDS). Karnataka is the only state in South
India where both of India's main national parties are dominant
political players. Karnataka has 28 Members of Parliament. The BJP
won big in the 2004 elections, taking 18 seats to Congress's 8 and 2
for the JDS. (Resignations and by-elections have since altered
these numbers to BJP - 11, Congress - 9, and JDS - 1, leaving 7
seats vacant.).


6. (SBU) The division of lower-caste and Muslim votes between
Congress and the JDS has undermined Congress's performance in recent
elections. The BJP has succeeded in attracting significant support,
particularly from the Lingayat caste, the largest in the state. The
dominance of the Lingayat caste in Karnataka's northern districts
serves the BJP well in India's electoral system, which is based on
electoral districts (like in the United States). In the 2004
national election, the BJP secured 18 parliamentary seats while
winning only 28.3 percent of the statewide popular vote. The
dispersed nature of the Congress Party's support, however, meant
that it won only eight seats despite taking 35.2 percent of the
statewide vote.. The BJP is on a roll in Karnataka, having risen
from electoral irreQance only a few years ago to winning a
plurality of seats (110 of 224) in the May 2008 state assembly
elections, allowing it to create the first BJP-led state government
in South India with the support of several independent legislators.
The party also gained 5 seats in December state-level by-elections,
thereby achieving a slight majority in the legislative assembly.


7. (SBU) The recent redistricting process in Karnataka has altered
the electoral landscape. There are now four constituencies reserved
for Scheduled Castes (also known as Dalits),up from two in 2004,
and two for Scheduled Tribes (known as Adivasis or indigenous

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people),up from none. In addition, two rural constituencies have
merged (Udupi and Chikmagalur in Western Karnataka) and Bangalore
has added a new constituency: Bangalore Central. It is not yet
clear exactly how these changes will play out electorally, but the
additional reservations for Scheduled constituencies ought to be a
boon for the Congress Party.

Kerala: Congress taking on a weakened CPM
--------------


8. (SBU) Kerala, the smallest of the South Indian states, has 20
parliamentary seats. Elections in Kerala are binary contests
between two rival coalitions, one led by the Congress party and the
other by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM). (The CPM is
the largest of India's leftist parties and the leader of the
national leftist coalition, known as the Left Front.) The BJP,
unable ideologically to ally with either coalition, has attempted to
establish a foothold, but has thus far failed to elect a single BJP
candidate in either state or national elections.


9. (SBU) The CPM-led coalition, the Left Democratic Front (LDF),
dominated the most recent national and state elections in Kerala,
held in 2004 and 2006, respectively. In 2004, it won 18 of Kerala's
Lok Sabha seats (up from nine in the previous election in 1999),and
in 2006 it took control of the state assembly, winning 98 out of 140
seats.


10. (SBU) Unfortunately for the CPM, the state party in recent
months has been beset by infighting between its two most prominent
leaders, making the government appear ineffective and incoherent.
Congress defeats in 2004 and 2006 were attributed to prolonged
infighting between state factions, and the CPM may pay a similar
price in 2009. Kerala has a solid electoral record of throwing out
incumbents.

Tamil Nadu: National parties overshadowed by local personalities
--------------


11. (SBU) Tamil Nadu has 39 Members of Parliament, the second
largest representation among the south Indian states. Tamil Nadu is
dominated by a spectrum of local parties, including the Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK),the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra
Kazhagam (AIADMK),and an array of smaller Leftist and Tamil
nationalist parties. The Congress Party has a significant presence,
though only as a second-tier coalition member, while the BJP has
proven unable to win a single national or state seat on its own.
Over the past few electoral cycles, DMK and/or AIADMK support has
been critical for both Congress and BJP coalition-building in the
Lok Sabha.


12. (SBU) Fluid state-level coalitions characterize Tamil Nadu's
parliamentary and state elections. In the 2004 national election,
Congress and the DMK, allied with a host of smaller parties, won all
39 of Tamil Nadu's seats in the Lok Sabha. The DMK-Congress
alliance in the 2006 state legislative assembly election again
defeated the AIADMK-led state government. Since then, however, all
parties save Congress have left the DMK's ruling coalition, with
some of the departees realigning themselves with the AIADMK.


13. (SBU) The ongoing war in Sri Lanka will be an influential factor
in the 2009 election. The state's predominantly Tamil population
has been increasingly outraged by the worsening plight of Sri
Lanka's Tamils. Increasingly, it is becoming acceptable in
political discourse in Tamil Nadu to voice support for the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),the terrorist group
battling the Sri Lankan government to create an independent Tamil
homeland. This has put the state's DMK leadership into a difficult
position, as it struggles to mollify its angry constituents with a
suitably pro-Tamil position while not alienating its only remaining
ally, the Congress party, by departing from national policy toward
Sri Lanka, which treats the LTTE as a banned terrorist organization.



14. (SBU) A potential wild card in the elections is the emergence of
a new party led by Vijaykanth, a popular actor. Although his Desiya
Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) is largely untested at the polls,
some pundits expect that it may receive ten percent of the vote,
making it a potentially key ally for either the DMK or AIADMK to
cement a victory.

Comment: Interesting times ahead
--------------


15. (SBU) Comment: As India approaches the start of its 2009
national election, the southern states offer informative case
studies of Indian politics at large. Their wealth of regional
parties formed on ethnic, caste, or religious affiliations,
sometimes ruled by iron-fisted cults of personality, make

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coalition-building and seat-sharing arrangements just as -- if not
more -- important than winning the voters' votes. Their ideological
malleability and leadership-centered decision-making mean that it is
very difficult to ascertain what kinds of alliances, partnerships,
or other cooperative relationships are likely. In addition, the
possibility of "game-changing" events, especially on the Sri Lanka
issue for Tamil Nadu or the Telangana issue for Andhra Pradesh,
before the election make it even more difficult to know what exactly
to expect from India's democratic exercise. In the coming weeks, we
will explore issues of electoral relevance -- from personalities to
parties, and from tolerance to Telangana -- in an attempt to explain
some of the many layers of complexity that help make up the
electoral machinations in the southern cone of the world's largest
democracy. End Comment.

SIMKIN