Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CHENNAI116
2009-04-23 21:46:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

BHARAT BALLOT 09: BJP SITTING PRETTY IN KARNATAKA

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KIRF OTRA IN 
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DE RUEHCG #0116/01 1132146
ZNR UUUUU ZZH A RETRANSMIT
R 232146Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
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INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
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RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000116 

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF OTRA IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: BJP SITTING PRETTY IN KARNATAKA

REF: A) 08 CHENNAI 00192 B) 08 CHENNAI 00416, C) CHENNAI 00025, D)
08 CHENNAI 350

CHENNAI 00000116 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000116

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF OTRA IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: BJP SITTING PRETTY IN KARNATAKA

REF: A) 08 CHENNAI 00192 B) 08 CHENNAI 00416, C) CHENNAI 00025, D)
08 CHENNAI 350

CHENNAI 00000116 001.2 OF 002



1. Summary: On April 23 voters in seventeen districts of the
southern state of Karnataka will cast their votes in the state's
first phase of voting in India's national elections. The Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) did exceptionally well in 2004, winning eighteen
seats. Congress came in second with a total of eight seats while
the regional party Janata Dal (Secular) (JDS) took two. The general
consensus in Bangalore is that the BJP is again in a strong
position, and is expected to win at least fourteen of the twenty
eight seats up for grabs. While most felt Congress' chances of
defeating the BJP in the state are relatively weak, attacks on local
churches in Mangalore and pub goers by Hindu extremists have helped
consolidate the Muslim and Christian vote behind the party. As a
result, observers feel they have a reasonable chance of maintaining
the eight seats they currently hold. While our contacts confirmed
that the tacit understanding between the JDS and Congress would
enable them to garner additional votes, the majority agreed that
their inability to put together a strong unified front, coupled with
the BJP's extensive financial network would pave the way for another
BJP victory in Karnataka.End Summary


BJP sits pretty
--------------


2. (SBU) We traveled to Karnataka in the lead-up to the first phase
of voting, where seventeen districts are scheduled to cast their
votes on April 23. We met with politicians, journalists and
business contacts all of whom predicted that the BJP will win around
half the twenty eight parliamentary seats from Karnataka. For the
most part, our interlocutors felt that caste will be a critical
factor. According to the editor of a local Kannada daily, the BJP
will retain its hold on the two regions primarily comprised of
members of the Lingayat, Madiga and Oddar castes which have
historically supported the BJP. He predicted the BJP would win all
eleven seats in districts where these three castes dominate the
parliamentary constituencies. In addition, the BJP has successfully
shored up support in areas where they have not typically fared well
by engineering defections from opposition Congress and JDS members

According to the editor the defections will enable BJP to garner
enough votes to win an additional four or five seats.

Hindu extremists affect BJP chances along the coast
--------------


3. (SBU) Highly-publicized attacks on Christian churches and young
pub goers by Hindu extremist groups have sparked fear amongst
minorities. Opposition party leaders play on these fears by
comparing the Hindu nationalists to the Taliban in Pakistan and
Afghanistan (refs C and D). Roshen Baig, a member of the Karnataka
State Assembly and a Congress party Muslim leader, said that this
fear had consolidated the Muslim and Christian vote behind the
Congress party. According to Baig "the Muslim community does not
want a Talibanization of Karnataka. The youth is also tired of the
radical Hindus; this will play out at the polls." Baig expects the
party to win three seats in Bangalore on account of the increased
minority vote. A local political commentator concurred with Roshen
Baig's analysis on the minority vote. He believes that this
consolidation will cost the BJP a couple of seats.


4. (U) Secular Hindu voters in urban areas will choose Congress
according to a majority of our interlocutors. Attacks on pub goers
in Mangalore and parts of Bangalore have shaken their confidence in
the BJP, forcing them to gravitate back to Congress according to the
former editor of the Economic Times. In the absence of an inspiring
prime ministerial candidate, he said, secular Hindus will stay home
or vote for Congress.

Tacit understanding between Congress and JDS

CHENNAI 00000116 002 OF 002


--------------


5. (U) Our interlocutors agreed that there exists a tacit
understanding between Congress and JDS. JDS's decision to contest
twenty one seats rather than all twenty eight seats in the state was
cited as primary evidence of the agreement. The JDS has not fielded
a candidate where former Congress Chief Minister Bangarappa is
running against Karnataka Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa's son.
Similarly, in Bangalore, Congress is giving no real support to its
marginal candidate standing against former JDS Chief Minister H.D.
Kumaraswamy. Congress and JDS are strong in both constituencies and
could harm each other's prospects if they fielded strong candidates
against each other.


6. (SBU) This tacit understanding, however, is far from perfect.
Roshen Baig cites a Bangalore constituency where Congress is running
a strong candidate against the BJP. The JDS's Muslim candidate
appears to have adopted for a low key approach, presumably ceding to
the Congress. But his workers remain active in seeking support at
mosques, which Baig worries will split the Muslim vote. Baig
believes campaigning by the JDS candidate's workers will nix the
Congress candidate's chances.


7. (SBU) The BJP also has a huge financial advantage, due to its
ties to the state's influential mining industry. Many observers
pointed to the recent incident in Bellary district where the
Karnataka election commission seized over three million dollars from
a BJP supporter's residence and vehicle. A local political analyst
explained that these funds are ordinarily used to pay the parties'
volunteers, and to buy favors, such as food, clothing and alcohol,
to distribute to voters. He added that while caste plays a critical
role in election, candidates are also able to build their following
by buying votes. He stated that cost of one vote had now increased
from ten dollars to approximately twenty dollars. Our contacts
agreed that the BJP's ongoing relationship with the local mine
owners has provided them with the necessary financial clout to
provide more favors to voters thus expanding their reach within
Karnataka. A correspondent with The Hindu told post that neither
Congress nor the JDS can compete with this financial advantage.

BJP state government's fate depends on national elections
--------------


8. (SBU)Comment: A strong showing in Karnatka's Lok Sabha elections
would be another step in the BJP's effort to establish its first
reliable foothold in South India. It has done so largely through a
sustained effort to build the party from the grassroots that has
steadily increased its share of the vote over time. Some of its
recent success stems from factors that might not always favor the
BJP like the huge cash advantage it has due to its relationship with
the mining industry and the inability on Congress and JDS to form an
alliance. But the long term outlook for the BJP in Karnataka will
only be brighter should the party have another strong performance in
these elections.
End comment.

SIMKIN