THE CASABLANCA EXCEPTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L CASABLANCA 000141

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG AND DRL/NESCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019
TAGS: KDEM MO PGOV PHUM PINS
SUBJECT: THE CASABLANCA EXCEPTION

REF: A. RABAT 0607

B. RABAT 0517

Classified By: Consul General Millard for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: Notwithstanding the widely reported Palace
machinations, the final composition of the City Council in
Morocco's largest city Casablanca consists of a broad
political alliance between the Palace-favored Party of
Authenticity and Modernity (PAM)and the Islamist-oriented
Party of Justice and Development (PJD) among others. In a
July 15 meeting with the Consul General, Mohamed Sajid,
Casablanca's newly re-elected mayor downplayed the City's
poor turnout rate for the communal elections (the lowest in
the country) and speculated that his Constitutional Union
Party (UC) might join the government in an expected upcoming
reshuffle. End Summary.

--------------
Machinations Stir City Council
--------------


2. (SBU) In Casablanca, an overnight (and as it turned out,
temporary) change of alliance by the newly re-elected mayor,
Mohamed Sajid, away from the PJD, saw him form a new
alignment with PAM, the Istiqlal Party (PI),the Rally of
National Independents (RNI),and the Popular Movement Party
(MP). This switch angered the PJD who had won the majority
of city council seats and facilitated Sajid's re-election.
Independent press reports hinted at the King's
behind-the-scenes involvement in scuttling a greater role for
PJD in the Mayoral coalition.


3. (SBU) The final composition of Casablanca's City Council
includes the PJD, who was successful in gaining two of the
top 5 deputy mayoral posts in the council. Sajid told us he
is confident in his ability to work within the framework of
the City Council's broad alliance, which includes the PJD,
PAM, PI, MP, and RNI. The Mayor's optimism appears to stem
from the fact that his first and second deputies ) members
of the PAM and PJD, respectively - share a personal
relationship with each other and Sajid. This situation is
likely to foster a workable political environment at the City
Council, despite the broader PAM-PJD rivalry in the country.

--------------
The State of Affairs
--------------


4. (C) Commenting on the overall state of political affairs,
Sajid opined that Morocco's national government was fragile.
He did not discard the possibility of a government reshuffle
in the near future. The Mayor also speculated that his
party, the UC, might join the government. In addition, Sajid
downplayed the widely-reported political rivalry between the
PJD and PAM (reftels),explaining that the fierce competition
was part of the coalition-building process in Morocco.


5. (SBU) The Mayor added that Casablanca,s 29 percent
turnout rate for the communal elections (the lowest in the
country)was not surprising. He described the elite as
generally uninterested in the political process and the
majority of urban residents as too preoccupied with work to
be bothered with elections. In his opinion, voting at the
municipal level should in some way be made mandatory.


6. (C) Comment: With two of the top five deputy mayoral
positions, the PJD is set to have a significant role in
Casablanca,s City Council. Moreover, Sajid's personal
connections with the representatives of the various warring
parties may be enough to create a workable city government.
At the national level, we anticipate that the UC is likely to
join the national government, like the MP did last week.
Even though the MP and UC are miniscule, they may be enough
to tip the balance of the government's razor thin majority to
keep it in power, while the PJD and PAM remain in opposition.
MILLARD