WHERE'S HUGO?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000680

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2029
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: WHERE'S HUGO?

CARACAS 00000680 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: President Chavez disappeared from national
view May 30, missing the last half of a planned four-day
marathon speech and the June 1 inauguration of the incoming
President of El Salvador, Mauricio Funes. State-owned media
outlets claimed technical issues were to blame for the
suspension of Chavez's broadcast while Foreign Minister
Nicolas Maduro revived claims of an assassination plot to
account for Chavez's absence from the inauguration. The
local press, however, is speculating that Chavez has simply
been suffering from a routine stomach bug. Chavez's
preeminence is so marked in Venezuelan politics, that even
when absent, he dominates the local media. End Summary.

--------------
WHERE'S CHAVEZ?
--------------


2. (SBU) Without notice, Chavez did not appear on the last
two of his pledged four-day marathon TV and radio "en cadena"
broadcasts May 30 and 31, which he scheduled to commemorate
ten years of his weekly "Alo, Presidente" talk show. He also
missed the June 1 inauguration of the new FMLN President of
El Salvador, Mauricio Funes. The Venezuelan government
issued no explanation for the first day of his absence, and
state-owned Venezolana TV (VTV) claimed "technical reasons"
for the suspension of Chavez's broadcast May 31 which was to
have been given from Guarico State. Local media reported
rumors that Chavez had been laid low by stomach troubles due
to eating some bad cheese.


3. (C) Some local observers claim Alo Presidente was
canceled because Chavez had painted himself into a corner.
On May 27-28, a local NGO held a conference that invited
leading political analysts, including Peruvians Mario and
Alvaro Vargas Llosa, Bolivian Jore Quiroga and Mexican Jore
Casteneda, to opine on the current state of democracy in
Venezuela. During the conference, they all claimed that
Chavez had limited democracy and was moving to, or had
already achieved, dictatorial rule. Chavez reacted by
criticizing them as aging oligarchs and political dinosaurs,
and then publicly challenging them to a debate at the
Miraflores Presidential Palace. They accepted, so long as it
would be a one on one debate with Mario Vargas Llosa. Chavez
then reneged, saying at first he was but a simple soldier and
would not debate intellectuals, and then hardened his posture
claiming that he'd only debate a fellow President.


4. (SBU) Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicolas Maduro
announced the evening of June 1 that Chavez had not traveled
to San Salvador as planned due to a possible threat against
him, which he termed a "security risk." He blamed the
alleged plot on "desperate sectors" of the Venezuelan
political opposition and members of the "ultra-right." VTV
followed Maduro's comments by naming several people allegedly
implicated in the plot including: opposition activist
Alejandro Pena Esclusa, 2002 coup participant and former
Vice-Admiral Carlos Molina Tamayo (who was granted political
asylum by El Salvador),and Cuban-Venezuelan emigre Luis
Posada Carriles (currently in the United States).


5. (SBU) The local media gave prominent coverage to
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega's June 1 announcement that
Chavez had planned to travel with Bolivian President Evo
Morales to the inauguration, but that "for strict reasons of
security, which we are not going to discuss in detail, Chavez
isn't here, nor was he this morning or this afternoon."
Ortega noted his esteem for the Salvadorian security and
intelligence forces, but warned that El Salvador has been the
staging ground for high-level assassinations in the past.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) Given the fanfare preceding Chavez's planned
four-day speech and the suspension of the broadcast without
warning, it seems plausible that health reasons are to blame.
Some local pundits speculate that Chavez canceled the Alo
Presidente marathon to avoid facing Mario Vargas Llosa in a
one to one debate, and he skipped the Funes inauguration
because Funes is publicly aligning himself with Brazilian
President Lula, rather than Chavez's Bolivarian revolution.
The GBRV, however, appears to be making savvy use of the
media speculation surrounding Chavez's disappearance by

CARACAS 00000680 002.2 OF 002


turning it into yet another allegation of an
opposition-sponsored assassination plot -- even managing to
needle the United States indirectly with the absurd
suggestion that Posada Carriles was involved. Interestingly,
even when the usually loquacious Venezuelan president
disappears from public view, he still dominates the local
news.

CAULFIELD