CHAVEZ BROADENS AMENDMENT LANGUAGE/OPPOSITION FINALLY BEGINS TO REACT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000054

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2029
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ BROADENS AMENDMENT LANGUAGE/OPPOSITION FINALLY BEGINS TO REACT

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON, FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: President Chavez revised his amendment
proposal January 5 to remove term limits for all elected
officials, strengthening his argument that the proposal would
"expand the political rights" of Venezuelans to choose how
long to keep all officials -- not just the president -- in
office. As planned, the National Assembly (AN) approved the
amendment a second time January 14, and the National
Electoral Council (CNE) will almost certainly move forward to
hold the referendum by February 15, the Venezuelan
President's preferred date. With a month to go before the
election, opposition and student groups have finally begun to
kick their "No" campaigns into gear. End Summary.

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AMENDMENT APPROVED BY AN
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2. (SBU) The Chavista-dominated AN overwhelmingly approved
January 14 for a second time the amendment proposal to
eliminate term limits for all elected officials. The next
step is for the AN to send the proposal to the CNE, which can
then formally announce the convocation of the referendum,
presumably on Chavez's preferred date of February 15. During
the assembly proceedings, which lasted about eight hours, AN
president Celia Flores accused opposition-oriented cable news
network Globovision of trying to "manipulate" public opinion.
Luis Tascon, who was kicked out of the PSUV last year,
announced January 15 that he opposed the concept of
indefinite reelection because of its unconstitutionality, but
voted nonetheless in favor of the amendment. He defended his
decision by asserting that he feared the return of the Copei
and Democratic Action opposition parties and as a result
"remains with Chavez." Only the Podemos party AN deputies
and a few former PSUV members voted against the amendment
proposal.


3. (C) Chavez announced January 5 that he was changing the
wording of the proposed constitutional amendment to remove
term limits for all elected officials. He almost certainly
hopes to broaden its appeal among Chavista officials whose
own political careers would otherwise be curtailed by term
limits. The referendum question wording now asks voters
whether they would approve an amendment to "expand the
political rights of the people" to permit any popularly
elected public official to be reelected indefinitely. The
small pro-government party, Patria Para Todos (PPT),had
lobbied for lifting term limits for all elected officials.
Prior to January 5, Chavez and other senior GBRV officials
argued strenuously that the amendment should only apply to
the presidency before Chavez's surprise change of heart.


4. (SBU) The opposition has fought back against the altered
proposal, calling the referendum question "fraudulent."
Maria Corina Machado, a representative of the civil society
organization Sumate, criticized January 14 the short period
of time Chavez has permitted for the referendum, pointing out
that it took eight months to prepare for the state and local
elections in November 2008. She added that the Chavez
administration had argued in the run-up to the unsuccessful
presidential recall referendum in 2004 that the CNE merely
had to call for a referendum -- but not hold it -- within 30
days. Now, the GBRV was changing its argument to claim that
the constitution required that the referendum be held within
30 days.

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STUDENTS BECOMING MORE VISIBLE
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5. (C) Several hundred student activists from Andres Bello
Catholic University, Simon Bolivar University, the
Metropolitan University (Unimet),and Monte Avila marched on
Caracas, distributed fliers, and blocked roads starting early
in the morning January 14 to protest Chavez's amendment
proposal. In an isolated but highly-publicized incident,
police responded to Unimet students who tried to block the
Petare-Guarnenas highway by using water cannons and tear gas.
It appears that no students were seriously injured in the
confrontations. The protests, although not remarkable in
their size, received front-page coverage by the
pro-opposition press, highlighting the continuing
significance of the student activist movement.


6. (C) Two student groups submitted solicitations January
14 to the Supreme Court (TSJ),asking for a halt to the
referendum proceedings to permit a reopening of the electoral
registry (REP). Student leader Jose Manuel Olivares of the
Central University of Venezuela (UCV) complained that the
CNE's decision to close the REP would deny approximately
300,000 youths -- presumably who have turned 18 since the
last election -- their right to vote. While it is highly
unlikely the TSJ will respond in favor of the student
petitions, the students are calling public attention to the
significant number of people from all parts of the political
spectrum who will be denied a vote, essentially on a
technicality, due to Chavez's rush to hold the referendum.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Chavez's decision to change the language of the
amendment proposal to remove term limits for all elected
officials, rather than just the presidency, appears to be an
astute one. He has bolstered his argument, albeit
farfetched, that he is "strengthening democracy" by allowing
the electorate -- rather than the constitution -- to
determine how long all elected officials stay in office. The
new language also gives Chavista governors and mayors more
incentive to turn out their base in February, since virtually
all elected officials are currently subject to term limits.
The move shores up support from small but active
pro-government parties. Although Chavez has been stoking his
electoral machine for well over a month, the opposition
finally appears to have returned from their holiday break and
are beginning to invigorate their own "No" campaign. It
remains to be seen, however, whether they can find a unifying
strategy in time for February 15 and mobilize voters to the
polls. End Comment.
CAULFIELD