NATIONAL ASSEMBLY RECONVENES TO CONSOLIDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000312

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2029
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY RECONVENES TO CONSOLIDATE
CHAVEZ'S POWER

CARACAS 00000312 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: After a two-month recess to campaign for
President Chavez's successful February 15 referendum, the
Chavista-dominated National Assembly (AN) reconvened and
announced March 10 a slate of proposed legislation intended
to consolidate the Venezuelan President's power even further.
The AN said it would authorize the postponement of
municipal-level elections slated for August 2009 and create a
new Vice President of Caracas position. This new figure, to
be appointed by Chavez, would undermine the authority of the
recently elected opposition mayor of Caracas, Antonio
Ledezma, as well as the four -- of five total --
borough-level Caracas mayorships held by the opposition. The
AN is also dusting off the proposed Law of International
Cooperation, which would give the Government of the
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) considerable
authority to both register (and not register) NGOs and
distribute international assistance as GBRV officials see
fit. The AN perceives its role as supporting Chavez
unconditionally and can be expected to pass quickly any laws
blessed (if not written) by Chavez. End Summary.

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DRAFT LAWS WOULD GIVE CHAVEZ EVEN MORE POWER
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2. (SBU) During his March 9 broadcast of "Alo, Presidente,"
President Chavez sharply criticized the Venezuelan
legislature, asking rhetorically "What does (the AN) do?" and
suggested that he would make laws himself to accelerate his
Bolivarian revolution. AN President Celia Flores
subsequently denied the AN is considering another Enabling
Law to allow the Venezuelan president to issue decree-laws.
Instead, she rolled out the AN's 2009 agenda which includes
97 "projects" and 43 proposed new laws. Local press
attention has focused on the proposed Organic Law of the
Capital District to create the new post of Caracas Vice
President. The new office would be appointed by Chavez and
would be designed to have powers akin to a governorship.
Opposition Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma called the proposal
a "Ledezma law" intended to "neutralize" his election in
November, in which he defeated Chavez loyalist Aristobulo
Isturiz.


3. (C) The Foreign Policy Commission is also set to resume
discussion of the controversial draft International
Cooperation Law. Previous drafts of the law would require
NGOs to be recognized by the GBRV and would have allowed the
GBRV to distribute international assistance according to the
GBRV's priorities and plans. Local analysts anticipate that
such rules would discourage most international donors from
trying to work with Venezuelan NGOs. It would also greatly
complicate USAID's democracy and human rights promotion
programs as well as NAS's demand reduction efforts. NGOs
could conceivably circumvent such a law by setting up
consulting firms, but they would then be subject to taxation.
The AN refrained from passing this law in 2006 and 2007
after numerous foreign governments, particularly in Europe
and Canada, expressed concerns. The other proposed new laws
to be debated in the AN include reforms or new laws
addressing the judicial process, the Supreme Court, the
Venezuelan foreign service, corruption, taxes, and "social
property" issues.


4. (SBU) Flores announced March 9 that nation-wide
municipal council elections, slated for August 2009, would be
postponed until the latter half of 2010. She pledged that
the Organic Laws of Suffrage and of Municipal Power would be
reformed by the legislative body to permit the delay. The
planned election for the governorship of Amazonas State, also
scheduled for August, would be postponed as well. PPT
Political Secretary Simon Calzadilla criticized the decision
as illegal because it would expand the term of the current
Amazonas governor, Liborio Guarrulla, past the
constitutionally stipulated five years. National coordinator
of the opposition Primero Justicia (PJ) party Richard Arteaga
called on the National Electoral Council (CNE) March 10 to
comply with the Organic Law of Municipal Public Power and set
a date for local council elections. Article 82 of the law
stipulates that local officials are permitted a four-year
term, which would expire in August 2009. Arteaga argued that
only the CNE, and not the AN, has the authority to regulate
electoral issues.


CARACAS 00000312 002.2 OF 002


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AN POLITICIZED
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5. (C) During a March 11 meeting with Poloff, AN staffer
Jesus Escalona lamented the politicization in the
legislature, adding that even meeting publicly with a USG
official, no matter what the reason, could cost him his job.
Escalona, who joined the AN in 2004 and is a lawyer by
training, said he personally reviews each proposed law to
ensure it is legally sound. He complained, however, that his
legal expertise is generally ignored and conceded that what
eventually is promulgated often does not resemble what he has
reviewed and signed off on, suggesting that Chavez amends the
legislation after the fact. Escalona noted that he voted for
Chavez but disagrees with radicalizing Chavez's "revolution"
and expressed real concern about the AN's upcoming agenda.

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POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF POSTPONING ELECTIONS
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6. (C) Accion Democratica (AD) President Victor Bolivar
told Polcouns March 11 that the BGRV's decision to postpone
local elections could help pro-government parties in several
ways. Bolivar speculated that merging local elections with
those slated for the AN in 2010 would allow Chavez to
campaign at a national level for his PSUV deputies, and the
impact of the electoral effort would then trickle down to the
community council races. Bolivar noted that many of the
community councils in areas where the opposition won
mayorships in November 2008 are dominated by Chavistas, so
waiting a year gives them an opportunity to challenge the new
mayors and presumably undermine their efforts to govern. At
the same time, some pundits suggest that the extra time give
the opposition more time to try to reach agreement on
consensus candidates, something they generally failed to do
in the November 2008 mayoral and state legislature races.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) The pro-government members of the National Assembly
constitute an overwhelming majority in the National Assembly
after the opposition foolishly boycotted parliamentary
elections in 2005. Virtually the entire body of Venezuela's
unicameral legislature believes their role is to support
President Chavez unconditionally, and not to provide a check
on executive power. Consequently, if Chavez makes good on
his promise to "accelerate the revolution," the AN can be
expected to pass quickly any legislation that the Venezuelan
president requests. The bulk of the proposed 2009
legislative agenda would concentrate even more authority in
the presidency and weaken democratic institutions
considerably. The International Cooperation Law, in
particular, would severely weaken Venezuela's active NGO
community and the USG's ability to support civil society.


8. (C) Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma has complained
repeatedly -- and with justification -- that the Venezuelan
government and Chavez supporters are sabotaging his efforts
to govern, even preventing him from physically occupying
certain mayoral offices. His position is widely considered
the second most high profile political job in Venezuela, next
to the presidency. Chavez's ability to appoint a Caracas VP
with governor-like powers, and presumably budgetary control,
will almost certainly undermine Ledezma's authority as well
as his political ambitions. A Caracas VP would also weaken
the four opposition Caracas borough mayors, including rising
opposition star and Sucre Mayor Carlos Ocariz.

CAULFIELD