VENEZUELANS APPROVE ELIMINATION OF TERM LIMITS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000216

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELANS APPROVE ELIMINATION OF TERM LIMITS,
CHAVEZ CONFIRMS HE WILL RUN AGAIN IN 2012

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. The National Electoral Council (CNE)
announced February 15 that Venezuelan voters approved a
proposed constitutional amendment to eliminate term limits,
54.85 percent to 45.15 percent. The result, coming on the
heels of the "Yes" camp's state-funded and sometimes violent
campaign split along socio-economic lines and is likely to
accentuate political polarization. Nevertheless, voting was
generally peaceful and fluid with only scattered
irregularities. In his nationally televised victory speech,
Chavez confirmed that he is already a "pre-candidate" for the
2012 presidential election. Opposition leaders quickly
recognized the "Yes" camp's victory, while underscoring that
they polled their highest gross vote total since Chavez was
first elected president in 1998. The opposition's future
success, however, depends on reaching into Chavez's base.
President Chavez told the media February 14 and 15 that he is
ready to "start down a path of normalizing relations with the
United States based on mutual respect." Embassy recommends
that USG officials reiterate our interest in constructive
relations with the GBRV while encouraging the GBRV to avail
itself of existing diplomatic channels. End Summary.

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"Yes" Vote Wins By Over a Million
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2. (SBU) CNE President Tibisay Lucena announced at 9:25 p.m.
local time on February 15 that, based on 94.25 percent of
polling booths reporting, Venezuelan voters approved the
elimination of term limits for all elected offices by a vote
of 6,003,594 to 5,040,082, or 54.36 percent to 45.63 percent.
A second announcement, with 99.5 percent of the votes
counted, put the vote at 6.3 million YES (54.85 percent) and
5.2 million NO (45.15 percent). The CNE announced that
11,242,817 registered voters participated, constituting an
abstention rate of 32.95%. According to CNE statistics, the
"No" vote won in only five of 23 states (and lost in Caracas
- when Caracas is defined as only the PSUV held Libertador
borough). There appears to have been little cross-over
voting with "Yes" votes dominating traditional pro-Chavez
neighborhoods and "No" votes carrying opposition strongholds.
While the opposition's efforts to get-out-the vote,
especially those of the students, were instrumental in
obtaining their highest vote tally ever, the lack of an
attractive political message aimed at winning Chavez' much
larger base proved the fatal flaw.


3. (SBU) Embassy deployed nine teams of two to visit polling
stations around Caracas and in six states. Embassy's
informal observers visited some 90 voting centers and were
invited to enter 71. Embassy teams and the Canadian
Embassy's informal observers confirmed that voting was
generally fluid and peaceful and did not see any indication
of large-scale irregularities. Some voters from both the
"Yes" and "No" camps reported a technical glitch by which
confirming votes too quickly led to nullified votes. Two
prominent leaders from Chavez's United Socialist Party of
Venezuela (PSUV) reported receiving null votes. One of them
was televised "re-voting," an electoral violation. CNE
reported that there were 199,041 null votes overall. Embassy
observers also saw scattered campaigning around polling
stations by both sides, although more frequently by
pro-government supporters. Campaigning is prohibited 48
hours before polling begins.

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Chavez Is Pre-Candidate for 2012
--------------


4. (SBU) Immediately following the CNE's announcement of the
"Yes" victory, a jubilant President Chavez appeared before a
large crowd outside the "Balcony of the Revolution" in the
Miraflores Presidential Palace to thank his supporters. From
there, Chavez delivered a one-hour victory speech "en cadena"
(required broadcast of all local television and radio
networks). The Venezuelan president confirmed that "unless
the people stipulate something else, this soldier is a
pre-candidate for 2013." Venezuela's next presidential
election is slated for late 2012, and the winner will be
sworn in early 2013. He called the "Yes" win a victory for
all Venezuelans, including those who voted "No." Chavez also
pledged to address ongoing problems in Venezuela, including
corruption, crime, bureaucracy, and inefficiency.

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5. (C) Chavez remains by far Venezuela's most popular
political figure and right now faces no real internal
opposition to running for a third six-year term in 2012.
Among the fractious opposition, there are numerous leaders
already trying to position themselves to be the consensus
opposition candidate, but none so far even approaches the
levels of public support that the Venezuelan president
currently enjoys. It was university students, and not
opposition political party leaders, who were at the forefront
of the "No" campaign. As one opposition-oriented analyst
writes, "the opposition remains fragmented, and no single
figure of real importance has yet emerged to confront Chavez
on an equal basis, and no coherent message and attractive
vision of the future have been produced to compete against
Chavez's undefined 'Socialism of the 21st Century'."

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Opposition Accepts Defeat
--------------


6. (SBU) Key opposition leaders recognized the "Yes" victory
in a joint press conference after the CNE released its
results. Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) President Omar Barboza
expressed satisfaction that the opposition had polled over
five million votes for the first time and said opposition
parties would continue to struggle against Chavez's
"totalitarian project." Ismael Garcia, Secretary General of
the former pro-Chavez party Podemos, admonished the
Venezuelan president to "administer his victory well."
University student leader David Smolansky also publicly
accepted the results, while at the same time denouncing the
Venezuelan government's "abuse of power" during the short
referendum campaign. Opposition parties can next compete
against Chavez's PSUV in municipal council elections in the
second half of 2009 and National Assembly elections in late

2010.


7. (SBU) In the run-up to the CNE's announcement of results,
both the "Yes" and "No" camps expressed confidence that their
side would win. While Venezuela's election rules prohibit
the publication of election projections prior to the CNE, the
"Yes" camp circulated exit polls to suggest the "No" camp was
leading. "No" campaign director Jorge Rodriguez held an 8:10
p.m. press conference and stated that he was awaiting the
official results with "a smile on my lips" and suggested that
Chavez's followers "meet in the usual place" (for a victory
celebration outside the Miraflores Presidential Palace).
Opposition politicians quickly denounced Rodriguez's
thinly-veiled projection and hastened to urge opposition poll
monitors not to abandon any ongoing voting audits at voting
centers.

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Ready to Talk to USG
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8. (C) During a February 14 press conference with
international reports and his February 15 press stand-up
after voting, President Chavez stated his interest in
"normalizing" relations with the USG. President Chavez has
repeatedly suggested in recent years that he is open to
"dialogue" with the United States, but neither he nor his
senior diplomats have followed up. GBRV officials continue
to suggest that the way forward needs to be a "top down"
process between Chavez and the President, without revealing
what substance, if any, they expect to cover beyond a
politically convenient photo opportunity. Embassy recommends
that the USG publicly and privately encourage the GBRV to use
existing diplomatic channels to explore the potential for a
more constructive bilateral relationship.

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Comment
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9. (C) President Chavez's referendum victory eliminating term
limits is a testament to his charisma, political skills,
perseverance, flexibility, and resource advantage. He now
has what he failed to achieve in 2007, a clear path to
running for a third six-year term in 2012 with no clear,
viable opponent on the horizon. His PSUV machine also grew
stronger, gaining a little less than a million votes over
November 2008. At the same time, it is a significant blow to
the democratic opposition, which had been buoyed by a victory
in the 2007 constitutional referendum and a strong showing in

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the 2008 state and local elections. It is also an indictment
of opposition political parties, who unlike university and
civil society activists, rallied behind the "No" campaign
late and contributed little. The results also clearly
indicate a wide political divide along class lines, with
almost universal support for the opposition in the middle and
upper classes, and equally strong support for Chavez among
the larger lower socio-economic classes.


10. (C) Nevertheless, President Chavez is a much better
campaigner than administrator. With serious economic
problems looming, he is going to face considerable political
challenges sustaining his popularity with fewer carrots to
offer. The emboldened Venezuelan president is likely to
resort to using more sticks against his slowly growing,
albeit often inept, opposition. The GBRV's recent decisions
to deter former Polish President Lech Valesa from visiting
and its quick February 13 expulsion of a visiting Spanish
member of the European parliament (Septel) may well portend
GBRV conduct to come. Opposition parties, for their part,
may have maximized the participation of their existing base.
To pose a real challenge to Chavez over the next four years,
they will need to make more genuine, skillful, and concerted
efforts to attract support from Chavez's base among
Venezuela's poor.

CAULFIELD