REFERENDUM CAMPAIGNS WRAP-UP, WITH "YES" LEADING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000204

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2029
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC VE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM CAMPAIGNS WRAP-UP, WITH "YES" LEADING
IN THE POLLS

CARACAS 00000204 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: As the February 13 deadline for
campaigning approaches, both the YES and the No camps are
wrapping up their activities. The GBRV refused to approve
student activists' request to hold a final march in central
Caracas on February 12 while Chavez announced his own "Yes"
march for the following day. Both the "Yes" and "No" camps
are now running extensive ad campaigns in independent media
outlets; the "Yes" camp continues to monopolize state media.
Pollsters report that the "Yes" has pulled ahead of the "No"
by as much as 6 percent, although one pundit told poloffs
that those being polled may be falsely responding due to
perceived pressure from Chavez -- enough so that the "No"
camp may still have a small, but shrinking, chance. End
Summary.

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CAMPAIGNS WRAP UP
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2. (C) The Ministry of Justice announced February 11 that
it would not approve student activists' request to hold a
final "No" march between the impoverished slums of Catia and
Petare -- on the western and eastern edges of Caracas -- on
February 13, the final day of the referendum campaign. The
previous night, Chavez announced that the "Yes" campaign
would conduct its final official march from Petare to
downtown Caracas on February 12. Television coverage of the
mass rally suggest that there were tens of thousands of
participants. An official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
told poloff February 12 that the entire government was
attending the rally.


3. (SBU) Student activists gathered in the affluent
Chacaito neighborhood the afternoon of February 12 as part of
the wrap-up of the "No" campaign. Student leader Juan Andres
Mejias from Simon Bolivar University announced that due to
the lack of time, the university activists had accepted the
MOJ's decision and opted for the stationary rally instead of
the planned march. The National Electoral Council (CNE)
announced a nationwide suspension of liquor sales starting 2
p.m. on February 13 -- 40 hours before elections -- to be
lifted 2 p.m. on February 16.

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CHAVEZ KEEPS UP THE PRESSURE
--------------


4. (SBU) Chavez announced February 11 that he had
discovered a US-backed plot involving active duty military
who infiltrated Miraflores Palace and are sending messages to
military units located in opposition-governed states. The
Venezuelan President denounced the so-called "Operation
Independence" on Venezolana de Television's evening broadcast
of "Counterpunch." In his weekly "Lines of Chavez" column
published February 12, Chavez contended that February 15
would be a "date with the future" and he urged his supporters
that "if you don't fail me, I won't fail you."


5. (SBU) Representatives from the Confederation of
Venezuelan Workers (CTV) union publicly complained that
employees at state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) and
the tax authority (SENIAT) had been told to use their cell
phones to take a picture of their ballot print-out on
February 15. Those who could not prove their "Yes" vote
would risk losing their government job. CTV complained in
January that PDVSA employees had been pressured to donate
money to the "Yes" campaign, with the threat of being fired.
The CNE reportedly has prohibited cellular phone use in
polling stations in response to opposition party demands,
although it is unclear how well this rule will be enforced.

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POLLSTER: "YES" AHEAD, BUT "NO" STILL IN THE RUNNING
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6. (C) Pollster John Magdaleno told poloffs February 12
that his analysis of recent polling from a variety of sources
indicates that the "Yes" has a small statistical advantage,
but that victory is by no means guaranteed. He claimed that
the most recent results that had just come in from
Datanalisis and Seijas showed the "Yes" leading by 6 percent.
Magdaleno nevertheless assessed that there could be a
significant number of those polled who gave false "Yes"

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responses, owing in part to the growing pressure being
exerted by the GBRV on public employees and social program
beneficiaries. He proposed that if 6 percent of "Yes"
respondents either abstained from voting or cast a "No"
ballot, the amendment would fail. By looking at the scenario
with respondents who said they would "probably" vote, the
"No" would win. Conversely, those who said they would
"definitely" go to the polls gave the "Yes" a solid advantage.


7. (C) Given how close the numbers are, Magdaleno surmised
that the final results on February 15 would likely come down
to the relative abstention rates between the "Yes" and "No"
camps and would probably be decided by some 3 percent of the
eligible voting electorate -- between 200,000 and 600,000
voters. He warned that given the likelihood of a close vote,
the CNE may wait until nearly all of the votes are counted
before declaring a winner. Magdaleno cautioned that a delay
in announcing the results would exacerbate political tensions
and lead to some street protests and scattered violence.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) Magdaleno's skepticism of reliable respondent
answers indicate how unpredictable Venezuelan voting and
abstention patterns are for this election. Several pollsters
have told us that it is very difficult to anticipate who will
go to the polls, particularly among the much-coveted
independent "ni-ni" group, which is about a third of the
Venezuelan electorate. Nevertheless, they all agree that the
"Yes" camp appears to have the advantage going into the
February 15 referendum. After a brief but tense electoral
campaign marred by pro-government political violence, any CNE
delay in releasing results is likely to exacerbate political
tensions, which in turn could drive Venezuelans into the
streets, and potentially to violence. End Comment.

CAULFIELD