DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE (DA) WINS BIG IN TWO LOCAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CAPE TOWN 000083

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PDEM SF
SUBJECT: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE (DA) WINS BIG IN TWO LOCAL
ELECTIONS

1.(SBU) Summary: On March 25, The Democratic Alliance, the
largest opposition party in Parliament and key member of the
coalition leading Cape Town, won two Cape Town local council
by-elections by considerable margins, suggesting the party is
well-placed for a strong showing in national elections in the
Western Cape on April 22. Both by-elections were peaceful
and without incident, and turnout was relatively high.
Poloff and Econoff visited polling stations in the two
wards-one in the middle-class northern suburb of Parow and
other in the gritty Mitchell,s Plain township on the Cape
Flats-and witnessed vibrant campaigning by all major parties,
as well as a few smaller local ones. End summary.

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Ward 2-Bellville and Parow
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2. (U) Poloff visited polling stations in Cape Town,s Ward
2, which comprises the predominantly middle-class,
Afrikaans-speaking neighborhoods of Parow and Bellville,
wherein the racial makeup is mixed white and colored. The
election here-a stronghold of the Democratic Alliance-was
necessitated by the death of the local councilor. Despite
being contested by the ANC and the Congress of the People,
the result was no surprise, as the DA candidate won more than
96 percent of the vote on a voter turnout of 36 percent.


3. (U) Although the ANC, DA and COPE competed for the vacant
seat, only the former two parties had a significant presence
in the ward in terms of both personnel and campaign posters,
which in South Africa is a primary mode of campaign outreach.
As has been the case for weeks, COPE had very few posters in
the wards and at the polling stations, both of party leader
Lekota and of their ward candidate. A COPE official
explained to Poloff that COPE does not have the funding to
put up posters as much as the party would like.


4. (SBU) Poloff met an ANC offical at one polling station,
and he accused the DA of engaging in underhanded tactics in
getting out voters. The candidate-a white, Afrikaner man who
did not wear any clothing or emblem that affiliated him with
the ANC-said he personally approached voters and asked, "did
the DA call you to come vote?" He said that many of the
voters responded that the DA did call them and tell them to
come vote, "or else the blacks will take over." The Cape
Times reported after the poll that the DA was accused of
illegally providing food parcels in order to secure votes.
Poloff saw no indications of any illegal or underhanded
campaigning by the DA.


5. (SBU) The ANC official also introduced Poloff to former
Cape Town Mayor Nomaindiya Mfeketo (a member of the NEC and
number 22 on the ANC National list),a local resident who had
come to vote. In their brief discussion, Mfeketo criticized
Health Minister Barbara Hogan for speaking out against the
SAG for refusing the Dalai Lama a visa, saying Hogan does not
know her place within the ANC and should not have spoken
against the party line.

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Ward 79-Mitchell,s Plain
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6. (U) In Mitchell,s Plain,s Ward 79--comprising the
Eastridge section of the poor, colored township on the Cape
Flats--the DA won with 79 percent of the vote, taking the
ward from the Independent Democrats. Its candidate was
formerly the ward,s councilor for the ID before defecting to
the DA, a move that prompted the election. The poll, which
had a turnout of 37 percent, had several more contestants
than the by-election in Parow, including the major parties
Qthan the by-election in Parow, including the major parties
DA, ANC, COPE and ID, as well as local minnows like the Cape
Party and the Universal Party.


7. (U) Econoff saw posters for all of the contesting parties
but, as in Parow, COPE,s presence was far less visible than
the others. The DA in particular appeared to pour extensive
resources into this poll, and Econoff observed a pickup truck
towing a large DA billboard, picturing the leader of the DA
and Cape Town Mayor Helen Zille. Election officials from all
parties indicated no problems in their discussions with
Econoff.

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Comment
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8. (SBU) One cannot put too much stock into by-election

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results as a measure of a party,s broader popularity.
Municipal elections are the one democratic exercise where
South African voters vote directly for a candidate, and a
popular personality-like the DA,s candidate in Ward 79, can
overshadow party affiliations. However, the DA,s
overwhelming majority win in these by-elections bodes well
for their chances in the upcoming Western Cape Provincial
elections, and in particular the party,s efforts to woo
colored voters disenchanted with the ANC and ID. Given that
colored voters make up about 55 percent of the Western Cape
electorate, their support will prove crucial in determining
who wins the province.
MAYBERRY