WHAT INFLUENCES THE SOUTH AFRICAN VOTER?

UNCLAS CAPE TOWN 000078


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SF PGOV KDEM
SUBJECT: WHAT INFLUENCES THE SOUTH AFRICAN VOTER?


1. Summary: When South Africans go to the polls on April 22,
they'll be weighing a host of factors that include their
personal circumstances, social networks, and perceptions of
government performance in order to help them make a decision.
Cape Town Poloff and Econoff on March 19 attended two
seminars that helped explain these factors, examining trends
since the 1994 democratic transition, and determine which
were most important, both nationally and in Western Cape
specifically. Unsurprisingly, race emerged as a key factor
in determining a party's support base in the three previous
democratic elections, albeit in an indirect fashion by which
race influences personal and social networks that influence
party support. Age, economic status, government performance,
and press coverage all have proven less influential than race
in voting patterns.


2. That said, all experts noted that this election could very
well display very different characteristics than the past
three polls. Voter registration is higher than in 2004, and
enthusiasm over this poll suggests that turnout also will be
higher than the last poll. Many new registrants are under 30
-- a group about which there is no good data on political
perceptions or likely voting trends -- while the number of
independent black voters has been increasing. While race
most likely will still be a key driver of political choice,
the experts acknowledged that factors such as class,
religion, ethnicity, and gender have not been sufficiently
researched to gauge their impacts. Lastly, the emergence of
the Congress of the People (COPE) opposition party could
provide a political home to the growing number of voters
disenchanted with the ruling African National Congress (ANC)
and the post-apartheid political system, although it's less
clear, given the affinity many black voters have for the ANC,
to what extent the party's lack of an effective organization
will handicap it.


3. Cape Town officers attended a seminar sponsored by the
Institute for Security Studies Corruption and Governance
Center on voter trends in South Africa since 1994. The
speakers were ISS researcher Collette Schulz-Herzenberg, who
presented a detailed quantitative study of voter trends, and
University of Cape Town professort Cherrel Africa, who
presented on the role of media in influencing voter behavior.
Econoff that evening went to another session hosted by the
Institute for a Democratic Alternative in South Africa
(IDASA) that focused more specifically on voter trends and
influences in Western Cape province. Presenters were author
Christi van der Westhuizen, University of Stellenbosch
professor Amanda Gouws, and University of Cape Town lecturer
Zweli Jolobe.

--------------
A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS SINCE 1994
--------------


4. Before looking at the factors, it's worth first examining
the three election results since 1994, which have shown
growing support for the ANC amid a steep decline in voter
participation. ANC support has grown from 63 percent in 1994
to 66 percent in 1999 and 69 percent in 2004. However, this
has been mirrored by a sharp decline in turnout in the past
two polls, decreasing from 89 percent turnout in 1999 to 77
percent in 2004. On top of that, the percentage of eligible
voters who even registered to vote declined from 81 percent
in 1999 to 74 percent in 2004. So while ANC support in the
2004 appeared quite strong at 69 percent, the party's support
represented just 39 percent of the total voting age
population. That said, the combined opposition could only
Qpopulation. That said, the combined opposition could only
muster 17 percent of the voting age population; the other 44
percent stayed home.


5. Schulz-Herzenberg in particular chalked the decline up to
voters decreasingly identifying with the political parties on
offer. ANC partisans are still tremendously loyal to the
ruling party, but whether due to dissatisfaction with the
party's performance, alienation with the new party
leadership, declining identification with the party's
liberation struggle past, or other reasons, the ANC's core
base of support is declining. These floating voters,
however, have not seen any opposition parties as worthy of
their votes; in a 2004 study, the Democratic Alliance was the
only political party viewed by more than 30 percent of voters
as inclusive of all South Africans, as opposed to the ANC's
70 percent.

-------------- -
RACE A KEY, ALBEIT COMPLEX, DRIVER OF BEHAVIOR
-------------- -


6. Strictly speaking, race is a significant factor in
determining how South Africans vote, but Schulz-Herzenberg
noted that its influence is more subtle than one might think.
She noted, for example, that South Africans do not practice
straight "racial census" voting by which race is the only
motivating factor. Rather, racial cues factor into such
things as perceptions of inclusiveness and social networks.
Black voters, for example, have generally perceived the
Democratic Alliance (despite its best efforts) as a "white"
party, the Independent Democrats as "colored," and the
Inkatha Freedom Party and United Democratic Movement as only
for Zulus and Xhosas respectively.


7. Schulz-Herzenberg focused extensively on the issue of how
important personal social networks influenced voter
behaviors. Social networks in South Africa tend to be very
racially and linguistically homogenous, and it can be very
difficult here for new parties to enter into the social
political dialogue. The tendency toward reinforced
groupthink is strong, and one that has reinforced ANC
dominance in the past several elections. Those voters who
tend not to agree with the group consensus tend to not vote
rather than voting for -- or much less campaigning for --
another party.


8. Schulz-Herzenberg said her research -- which utilized
survey data from nine national polls since 1994 -- suggested
that government performance has heretofore had little
influence on voter choices. Cherrel Africa's presentation on
media influence in campaigns suggests that coverage of
election campaigns -- both by the press and party publicity
-- also have relatively little effect on voters. Her studies
found that media outlets of all types tend to offer generally
unbiased coverage of all major parties, and this objective
coverage has not tended to influence voters one way or the
other. Parties' generally banal campaigns also have had very
little impact; Africa bemoaned the lack of creativity shown
by parties of all stripes.

--------------
ELECTION 2009 COULD PROVE QUITE DIFFERENT
--------------


9. When looking at the April 22 poll, all of the analysts at
both seminars noted that electoral landscape has changed
since 2004 -- and particularly since the formation of COPE
last November. First and foremost, the trend toward voter
apathy appears as if it will be interrupted in this poll.
The number of eligible voters registering has increased to 77
percent, from the 74 percent in 2004, Meanwhile, the
Independent Electoral Commission and others are expecting a
jump in turnout to back over the 80 percent mark. Also of
note is that 27 percent of eligible voters are under 30; 73
percent of voters in the last two registration periods (both
of which happened after COPE's formation) were under 30.


10. There is little data suggesting how these young voters --
two-thirds of whom are black -- will vote. Apartheid is a
distant memory for these voters, if a personal living memory
at all, and these voters are likely to have far more nuanced
conceptions of identity -- taking into account issues such as
class, for instance -- than their parents. Their perceptions
of government performance, or its influence on their vote,
are unclear, but are less likely to be influenced by a sense
of historical loyalty to the ANC (or other parties) than
older generations.


11. While the analysts acknowledged that the ANC's split and
the formation of COPE certainly appear to have captured
voters' attentions, they were loath to try to pinpoint how
such enthusiasm will translate at the polls. Jolobe
emphasized that ANC success at the polls has long stemmed
from its impeccable organization; COPE has not shown similar
organizational capacity. Schulz-Herzenberg said that COPE
certainly has the potential to be an alternative political
home for independent voters, but that they also would have to
Qhome for independent voters, but that they also would have to
show voters that they are a viable alternative -- COPE's
problems with campaign organization and fundraising are not
helping it in that sense.


12. Also noted was the paucity of information on how other
factors could impact this poll. Van der Westhuizen noted
that little study has been made of gender and politics in
South Africa, particularly given a majority of registered
voters are female. She noted that what little research has
been done has found little to suggest gender has much of a
distinct role in voting patterns, although she opined that
Jacob Zuma's rape allegations and "anti-woman" statements by
ANC leaders Julius Malema and Tokyo Sexwale could damage the
ANC among women voters. (Note: A recent survey of popular
attitudes towards the traditional African practice of
polygamy revealed that 85 percent of black women, more than
any other group, oppose this practice and expressed the view
that personal values of politicians influenced these women's
judgements and potentially their votes. Pollsters
self-consciously used Jacob Zuma's polygamy as a point of
departure in this survey, revealing popular sentiment
regarding this practice among political leaders. End Note)
Others noted that there is a dearth of research on the
influence of religious and traditional leaders on voters as
well.


13. All of the experts at these seminars raised compelling
points about how this election might play out, although they
readily acknowledged that no one felt comfortable making
predictions on the outcome, at least nationally. The IDASA
panelists did, however, feel quite strongly that the ANC
would lose Western Cape. Gouws noted than an October 2008
Markinor poll -- before COPE's formation -- gave the
Democratic Alliance 42 percent support and the ANC just 26
percent. She believes COPE's emergence will largely pull
from ANC support, effectively shutting the ANC out in the
province.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


14. If anything, the experts' presentions show how difficult
it is to accurately project how this election will turn out.
Unlike more mature democracies such as in the United States
and Europe, pre-election polling in South Africa is spotty
and reliant on small samples, as good polling is too
expensive for parties or media outlets. Many of the
assumptions posited by the analysts -- the role of race, for
example -- are likely to hold true for this poll, but
observers are unlikely to understand how or if a realignment
in voter identification is in the offing until after the
poll.


MAYBERRY