Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CAPETOWN72
2009-03-20 08:23:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Consulate Cape Town
Cable title:  

TOUR D'HORIZON WITH WESTERN CAPE COSATU SECRETARY

Tags:  SF PGOV ELAB KDEM 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 200823Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 3023
INFO SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
UNCLAS CAPE TOWN 000072 


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SF PGOV ELAB KDEM
SUBJECT: TOUR D'HORIZON WITH WESTERN CAPE COSATU SECRETARY

UNCLAS CAPE TOWN 000072


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SF PGOV ELAB KDEM
SUBJECT: TOUR D'HORIZON WITH WESTERN CAPE COSATU SECRETARY


1. (SBU) Summary: Tony Ehrenreich, the outgoing Western Cape
provincial secretary for the Congress of South African Trade
Unions (COSATU) told Econoff that while he was confident the
new ANC government and presumptive new President Jacob Zuma
would be more receptive to labor concerns and pro-poor
policies, they will have a difficult time challenging the
national Treasury's bureaucratic primacy -- particularly if
Finance Minister Trevor Manuel sticks around. Although he
acknowledged that not every Zuma backer had the same
perspective on economic policy, Ehrenreich believes that the
union federation's support for Zuma will make it difficult
for him to dismiss organized labor in the fashion of former
President Thabo Mbeki. In Western Cape, Ehrenreich said
COSATU is actively campaigning for the ANC, but he further
noted the ANC "doesn't have a snowball's chance" of winning
the province in the April 22 elections, but he noted that
this was not a major concern, given provincial government's
limited role. End summary.


2. (SBU) Bio note: Ehrenreich, COSATU provincial secretary
for 13 years, is regarded as one of the labor movement's most
articulate and skilled leaders, as well as an effective
organizer. However, he has drawn fire for his public
pronouncements that the ANC would lose Western Cape,
prompting speculation that he would join the breakaway
Congress of the People (COPE). A COPE defection does not
appear on the cards, but -- probably in part due to the
controversy -- Ehrenreich is stepping down at the end of his
term; he told Econoff he would be departing office in June.
Ehrenreich, who is in his 40s, said he did not know what he's
going to do next, though he hopes to continue working in
organized labor. End bio note.

-------------- --------------
ANC ECONOMIC DECISIONMAKING: THE TROUBLE WITH TREVOR
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) Ehrenreich said he was very optimistic about a Jacob
Zuma-led ANC government, as he thinks this government will
advocate the party's policies and not act independently. ANC
policy for years has advocated pro-poor and pro-worker
policies; the resolutions at the December 2007 Polokwane
conference made this emphasis even more explicit. However,
he noted, Thabo Mbeki's government did not take these party
directives into account when making government policy -- he
largely ignored the protestations of alliance partners COSATU

and the South African Communist Party. Ehrenreich said the
operation of the National Economic Development and Labor
Council (NEDLAC) was a good case in point. NEDLAC was
designed to be a forum for the government, business, and
organized labor to share views on economic policy, but
Ehrenreich said that government departments -- particularly
Trade and Industry and the Treasury -- generally ignored the
council's position papers, particularly those with
significant inputs from organized labor.


4. (SBU) Ehrenreich held out particular contempt for Finance
Minister Trevor Manuel, who he said operates with impunity
and through control of the Treasury essentially dictates the
government's economic priorities. Ehrenreich described
Manuel's 2009 budget as "his giving the finger to the ANC,"
saying that the Finance Minister largely ignored ANC
resolutions to expand access to social welfare programs in
favor of cutting taxes on the wealthy. He acknowledged,
however, that Manuel's global standing -- his
quickly-rescinded October 2008 resignation announcement after
Mbeki's ouster caused the rand to briefly plummet -- will
QMbeki's ouster caused the rand to briefly plummet -- will
make it hard for Zuma to push him out right away. Manuel
also benefits from being a sklled politician; Ehrenreich
said, "he's so good that even the people he gives the finger
to like him."


5. (SBU) Manuel will eventually leave, but Ehrenreich said
that the new government will still face a challenge in
changing the institutional culture at Treasury, Trade and
Industry, and other economic departments. (Comment:
Ehrenreich's views of Treasury and Trade and Industry in the
same light are interesting, given that Treasury is widely
viewed as actively opposed to many Trade and Industry
initiatives aimed at the creation of a "developmental state."
End comment.) Civil servants at Treasury in particular have
a great deal of power and independence, and it will prove
difficult for Zuma and his Cabinet to rein them in.
Wholesale changes will be necessary, he noted, if South
Africa will pursue the ANC goal of a developmental state.

--------------
FUTURE LOOKING (RELATIVELY) BRIGHT...
--------------


6. (SBU) Asked whether he trusted Zuma to follow through on
his promises to pursue more pro-poor policies, Ehrenreich
acknowledged that Zuma's rise came from an "unholy alliance"
with disparate views on economic policy united only by their
distaste for Mbeki. However, Ehrenreich believes that
COSATU's unwavering backing of Zuma will give it a great deal
of influence with him, far more than they ever had with
Mbeki. Furthermore, he does not think Zuma is someone who
will buck ANC policies, which are clearly pro-poor and
pro-worker.


7. (SBU) Ehrenreich had no insights as to whom Zuma will
appoint to his Cabinet in economic portfolios, but he thinks
COSATU "missed the boat" when it came to pushing for names on
the ANC national election list. Not many COSATU leaders were
on it, and given that the President has very limited ability
to appoint Cabinet ministers not on the list, Ehrenreich
doubts the labor movement will be well-represented in the
Cabinet. Asked who the congress would like to see in
Cabinet, Ehrenreich cited South African Revenue Service chief
Pravin Gordhan, Deputy Trade and Industry Minister Rob
Davies, and Communist Party stalwart Jeremy Cronin as people
who would be sympathetic to organized labor. However, he
noted that many leading lights in the union movement had been
"seduced" by power and money after joining government, so
it's impossible to say how seemingly supportive ministers
will pan out.

--------------
...BUT NOT FOR ANC IN WESTERN CAPE
--------------


8. (SBU) While optimistic that the ANC will win comfortably
on a national level on April 22, Ehrenreich bluntly stated
the party "doesn't have a snowball's chance" in Western Cape.
He said internal projections put the ANC's provincial
support at around 26 percent, which he thinks will rise to
about 30 percent on election day. He pinned the blame for
this on the vicious battle for control in the province
between former Premier Ebrahim Rasool and former party leader
Mcebisi Skwatsha, which seriously weakened the party's
structures. Ehrenreich noted that these problems were
brewing for a long time, but that no one in the ANC's Luthuli
House headquarters in Johannesburg took them seriously until
it was too late. However, he noted that the loss of Western
Cape for the ANC would not have much effect either on COSATU
or on governance as a whole given the predominance of
national government.


9. (SBU) Nonetheless, COSATU is campaigning hard for the ANC
throughout the province; Ehrenreich claimed COSATU is the
ANC's only effective structure here. Ehrenreich said the
congress has been active in deploying its estimated 250,000
members in the province to electioneer, both door-to-door and
in workplaces. COSATU holds lunch time talks on political
issues, and Ehrenreich gave Econoff a copy of the pamphlet
that organizers hand out. Entitled, "Defend Our Movement:
Advance the Gains of Polokwane! Expose and Isolate the Black
DA!", the 14-page anti-COPE document lays out the reasons why
COSATU supports the ANC and (at times vitriolically) attacks
COPE as an inherently anti-worker organization. Ehrenreich
said COSATU has held some rallies and is holding one on March
17 in Cape Town that he expects to attract 5,000 people.

--------------
BULLISH ON COSATU'S FUTURE IN PROVINCE
--------------


10. (SBU) Ehrenreich said he felt he's leaving provincial
COSATU in good stead. Although the provincial congress is
only about the fourth or fifth largest in the country, he
said he feels Western Cape COSATU is probably the most
dynamic provincial structure in the country, actively
engaging with local civic organizations far more than other
provincial structures. He said it is tougher to attract new
members than it was in the 1980s and 1990s, when the labor
movement's involvement in the liberation struggle gave it
extensive credibility. Ehrenreich said he was happy with the
level of new joiners. He said that new members come from a
broader racial and socioeconomic profile than in the past,
noting that call centers based in Cape Town have become a hot
new bed of recruitment.


11. (SBU) Ehrenreich said the organization's main priority in
the near term is to continue to expand and broaden its base
of support, as well as to better engage with vibrant civil
society organizations in the province. Sectorally,
Ehrenreich noted that he hoped COSATU would expand its reach
in the agricultural arena, where few of the unions are COSATU
members. While COSATU frequently engages with these
independent unions, he thinks all would benefit from a more
formalized, closer relationship.

--------------
KEEN ON US OUTREACH
--------------


12. (SBU) At the end of the meeting, Ehrenreich asked if the
Mission still offered International Visitor training
programs. He said he'd gone on one several years ago and
found it tremendously valuable. When told that they were, he
offered to introduce Econoff to up-and-coming labor leaders
in the province who might be good beneficiaries, something
Econoff welcomed and will follow up on in conjunction with
RLO in Johannesburg.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


13. (SBU) Ehrenreich's departure will be sorely missed by
Western Cape COSATU, and we will watch with interest as to
where he ends up next. His openness and candor are
refreshing to us, but one can see how they would not
necessarily be appreciated qualities in ANC circles or among
COSATU's national leadership. While his trust that a Jacob
Zuma administration will prove more friendly to organized
labor than that of Thabo Mbeki is probably accurate -- though
the details remain to be seen -- it remains to be seen to
what degree Zuma and his deputies will be willing and able to
take on generally pro-market policies inherited from Mbeki,
particularly in light of the global economic crisis.


MAYBERRY