Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CANBERRA234
2009-03-09 23:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Canberra
Cable title:  

EARLY ELECTION IN AUSTRALIA? /// CORRECTED COPY

Tags:  PGOV AS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000234 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: EARLY ELECTION IN AUSTRALIA? /// CORRECTED COPY
-- ADDRESSEES ///

REF: CANBERRA 00229

Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000234

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: EARLY ELECTION IN AUSTRALIA? /// CORRECTED COPY
-- ADDRESSEES ///

REF: CANBERRA 00229

Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: There is increasing speculation among
political insiders and observers that Prime Minister Rudd may
call an early election this year before the global economic
crisis starts to drive up unemployment, and to take advantage
of his popularity and divisions in the Opposition. To call
an election before July 1, 2010, Rudd would need to trigger a
double dissolution, which would require the Senate to reject
a bill for the second time, three months after the first
rejection. While double-dissolution elections have been held
six times in Australia's history, technically, it is in the
hands of the Coalition whether an election will be called
this year since they can always support any
previously-rejected bill upon reintroduction. Even if Rudd
waits another 18 months, the discussion of an early election
gives Rudd considerable leverage to push legislation through
the Senate as long as the Opposition fears going to the
polls. END SUMMARY.

WHY THE SPECULATION?


2. (U) An increasing number of observers are predicting that
Rudd will go to the polls late this year to avoid maximum
fall-out from the economic downturn. Unemployment, for
example, which dipped below four percent a year ago, is
predicted to double by mid 2010. Proponents note that Rudd's
Australian Labor Party's (ALP) National Conference has been
moved forward from January 2010 to July 31 2009, the
Queensland ALP Government will go to the polls early on March
21 instead of September as initially expected, and the
Liberal Party opposition is divided and way behind in the
polls. In December 2007, Liberal Federal Political Director
Brian Loughnane remarked that "our operating assumption is
that we must be ready for another election in two years - it
has been Labor's track record to go early if they can."
Australian history shows first-term governments are almost
always returned, but with a reduced majority. The last time
a first-term government lost office was in 1931 during the
Depression.

HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN?


3. (U) A normal election, as occurred in 2007, takes place
every three years and involves an election for the entire

House of Representatives, and half of the Senate. By law,
the earliest such an election can be called is July 1, 2010.
A House of Representatives-only election can be called at any
time (and held a minimum of 33 days after dissolution of the
House),but a House-only election would put the House and
Senate terms out of sync, meaning a half-Senate election
would still have to be held before July 1 2011 - there is no
indication the government is considering this option. The
only other option, and the one most discussed, is a a double
dissolution election, which would involve an election of the
entire upper and lower house. For Rudd to exercise this
option, the Senate must twice reject a Bill passed by the
House, with the second rejection occurring at least three
months after the first. The emissions trading scheme and
industrial relations legislation are the most obvious
triggers, but double-dissolution elections have often been
based on minor issues, put in the spotlight once the
Qbased on minor issues, put in the spotlight once the
Government decided it needed an excuse, and quickly forgotten
thereafter. Rudd's plan to increase the tax on pre-packaged
mixed drinks (known as the "alcopops tax"),for example,
could be the trigger.

RUDD'S MARGIN: SOLID NOT HUGE


4. (U) Rudd's ALP holds 83 seats in the House, the Coalition
64, and independents three. To win back a majority, the
Liberal-National Party Coalition requires 12 seats and a
uniform swing of three percent. There was a 1.4 percent
swing against the popular Hawke ALP government when it sought
a second term at an early election in 1984 - a uniform 1.4
percent swing against the Rudd government would cost it eight
seats, meaning it would barely hold government.

WHAT INSIDERS SAY


CANBERRA 00000234 002 OF 002

SUBJECT: EARLY ELECTION IN AUSTRALIA? /// CORRECTED COPY
-- ADDRESSEES ///


5. (C/NF) Former Liberal Party Leader John Hewson told the
Charge that Rudd would call an early election, otherwise
unemployment "will kill" him. Former Liberal Party federal
director Andrew Robb, the Shadow Minister for Infrastructure,
COAG, and Emissions Trading, agrees, believing the political
landscape will worsen for Rudd as unemployment grows.
However, Liberal MP Chris Pyne - one of the Opposition
Leader's inner circle and the manager of Opposition Business
in the House of Representatives - said the Coalition was
determined not to provide a trigger, and he was doubtful it
was in Rudd's best interests to call an early poll. Pyne
noted he thought the economy would start to improve in 2010.
New South Wales Liberal Senator Marise Payne told us low
financial resources would also hold her party back from
triggering a double dissolution. ALP Assistant National
Secretary Nick Martin told us there appeared to be a "clear
preference" among the ALP hierarchy for the government to run
close to a full term, but that "weird and wacky things happen
in politics," and that it might be too tempting to resist an
opportunity to go early.

NO STAMPEDE TO THE POLLS, BUT DON'T RULE IT OUT


6. (C/NF) COMMENT: We doubt that Rudd has made a decision.
Speculation that he is interested in an early election
strengthens his hand in dealing with a Senate where Labor
needs Green and independent support to pass legislation that
the Opposition does not support. There appears to be no
sense of urgency in the ALP to rush to the polls. Rudd - who
has said he is against politicians manipulating election
dates and is in favor of fixed parliamentary terms - would
likely prefer a major issue to use as a double dissolution
trigger. On the other hand, previous governments have used
unimportant bills as triggers. It is improbable the
Coalition will vote against the government's industrial
relations legislation as it is desperate to dump its
"WorkChoices" baggage. The government's emissions trading
scheme could be another double dissolution trigger, but the
economic downturn means there are risks for the government in
calling an election on this issue.


7. (C/NF) COMMENT CONTINUED: Since the beginning of the year,
Rudd and his colleagues have been upfront with the public
that unemployment will get worse, yet the Government has
maintained its strong standing in the polls, and there is
widespread support for its economic stimulus packages.
Economic management, however, is the Coalition's strongest
asset. If former Treasurer Peter Costello, whom the public
sees as a strong and experienced economic manager, stays in
politics and contests the Liberal Party leadership, that may
be a factor in the Government's early election
considerations.

CLUNE