AUSTRALIA: PM'S ADVISOR ON AFHANISTAN-PAKISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000156


SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR SCA, EUR, EEB AND EAP
NSC FOR GEN. JONES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2019
TAGS: PREL PARM EFIN MARR AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA: PM'S ADVISOR ON AFHANISTAN-PAKISTAN
REVIEW, NATO SUMMIT AND G-20 SUMMIT

REF: STATE 14097

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Daniel A. Clune. Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) In response to the U.S. invitation to contribute ideas
to the Afghanistan-Pakistan strategic policy review, Prime
Minister Rudd's senior international adviser said Australia
has been hard at work on its own review and believes the U.S.
and Australian efforts can complement one another. On other
topics, Prime Minister Rudd remains intent on seeking an ISAF
leaders meeting at the NATO Summit, and hopes the United
States can weigh in to ensure it is on the agenda. Prime
Minister Rudd is also focused strongly on developing ideas
and a package of options for the April 2 G-20 Summit. End
Summary.

AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN POLICY REVIEW
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2. (C) Charge briefed Gary Quinlan, Senior Adviser for
International Affairs to Prime Minister Rudd, on details of
the Administration's comprehensive strategic review in
Afghanistan and Pakistan on February 17, drawing on points in
reftel. In soliticing views on goals, strategies, actions
and resources, Charge stressed that this would meet
Australia's long-standing request for advance consultations
and input into the planning process in the region. He urged
the Australian government to move quickly, noting the review
chairs would welcome a well-reasoned paper on the topic.


3. (C) Quinlan welcomed the points and said the GOA had
undertaken its own strategic review of Afghanistan, in
anticipation of engaging with the new U.S. Administration on
the topic and in advance of the NATO Summit, and was nearing
completion of a draft paper. Duncan Lewis, National Security
Adviser, was coordinating the review. (Charge is scheduled
to meet Lewis February 18 to deliver reftel points.) Quinlan
said the National Security Committee of Cabinet planned to
meet in March to review Australia's overall commitment to
Afghanistan, including possible new contributions. On a side
note, he added, the NSC would likely take up for discussion
at its next meeting an analytical paper on the issue of
political reconciliation in Afghanistan, and how this fits
with the overall approach. He was quick to note that the GOA
took no position on reconciliation.

NATO SUMMIT
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4. (C) Quinlan reprised Prime Minister Rudd's strongly-held
position that the April 3-4 NATO Summit should include a
separate ISAF leaders meeting. Rudd points to the summit at
Bucharest one year ago as an important precedent in this
regard, and believes it would be a mistake to push it down to
the foreign/defense minister and military command levels,
which already have regular meetings on Afghanistan. Most
important to Rudd, Quinlan emphasized, was the domestic
political context; he needed to demonstrate to the Australian
people, a majority of whom now opposed military involvement
in Afghanistan, the importance of maintaining their
commitment, which meant leader-level engagement. Public
support would be necessary if Australia were to increase its
contribution, he argued. Rudd had recently written to
French President Sarkhozy, German Chancellor Merkel and UK
Prime Minister Brown to stress this point. He added
Ambassador Richardson had taken heart from a comment by NSA
QAmbassador Richardson had taken heart from a comment by NSA
Gen. Jones that it had been "sorted out," suggesting an ISAF
session was still possible at the Summit. Rudd was concerned
that time was running out to try to ensure the Summit took up
ISAF; U.S. support with other NATO members was therefore
critical. The Dutch had suggested trying to organize a
separate ISAF session for leaders in the Netherlands, but
with so little time that was not a viable option. Quinlan
said PM Rudd may write to President Obama overnight on the
issue.

G-20
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5. (C) Turning to economic matters, Quinlan said the Prime
Minister had turned from the recent bushfire emergency, which
had killed 189 people in Victoria, to concentrate almost
fully on the global economic crisis. He had commissioned a
paper to focus on ideas to manage the crisis and develop a
package of options for the April 2 G-20 Summit, drawing ideas
from Treasury Secretary Geithner's recent financial
stabilization plan. The paper would address problems of
recapitalization, distressed assets and restoring the flow of
credit flow, among other topics.

CLUNE