RUDD STEPS UP RHETORIC ON WHALING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001099

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR OES/OA BALTON, PHELPS, L/OES BENES, COMMERCE FOR
NOAA MEDINA, MCMASTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2019
TAGS: SENV EFIS PREL AS
SUBJECT: RUDD STEPS UP RHETORIC ON WHALING

REF: CANBERRA 976

Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Edgard Kagan, Reasons 1.4(b
)(d).


1. (C/NF) Summary: Australia is growing increasingly
frustrated with lack of progress on whaling with Japan as the
Japanese whaling fleet is about to start its annual hunt in
Antarctic waters. PM Rudd will raise whaling with Japanese
PM Hatoyama in response to perceived Japanese escalation of
the issue last week. With activists due to confront the
Japanese scientific whaling fleet this week, public pressure
on Rudd to take a tough line with Japan is mounting. The
lack of substantive concessions by Japan, and a perception
that Japan and other whaling nations are manipulating the
Support Group format to slide out from under agreements in
Santiago have strengthened advocates of legal action against
Japan in Canberra. Rudd was careful to highlight diplomatic
efforts, but if progress stalls, the GOA's ability to sustain
those efforts through IWC 62 next year will be reduced. End
Summary.

RUDD REAFFIRMS LEGAL ACTION OPTION
--------------


2. (SBU) PM Rudd said on December 10 that Australia was
pursuing a diplomatic solution to the whaling issue, but that
if that track failed then Australia would take legal action
against Japan in the appropriate venue. While largely
restating the existing position, Rudd left out mention of
other options, toughening Australia's public position. At
the same time, the Japanese JARPA II whaling fleet is now in
Southern waters and anti-whaling activists (led by the Sea
Shepherd Conservation Group) are expected to clash with the
fleet beginning this week. Rudd's visit to Japan, while not
intentionally planned around this event, will come at a time
when public concerns over whaling are peaking.


3. (C/NF) The PM was careful merely to restate Australia's
current position, according to Scott Dewar, Foreign Policy
Advisor to the PM. Dewar acknowledged that such a statement
from the PM immediately before a trip to Japan sent a strong
signal. He stressed that pushing forward with a diplomatic
approach while holding open the possibility of international
legal action has been Australia's position for two years
(i.e. since the PM took office) but that the lack of progress
or any sign of Japanese flexibility means that the GOA is
reaching a point where it must either make a decision or
adopt a new policy. Noting ongoing discussions at the
International Whaling Commission, Dewar said that Japan has
not shown any real sign of agreeing to the kind of reduction
in numbers that would make it possible for Australia to
support a deal. While international legal action carries
risks, Dewar said that the PM believes the Japanese are
genuinely worried at the prospect and that raising the
possibility both publicly and during the PM's December 15
meeting with Hatoyama strengthens the hand of negotiators.

RUDD WILL RAISE WHALING IN TOKYO
--------------


4. (C/NF) Environment Minister Peter Garrett's chief of
staff, David Williams, told econoff that Rudd's comments were
clearly stating the government's long-held position. He said
the remarks were not a hardening of Australia's position but
showed stiffened resolve in the face of Japanese lack of
response to diplomatic overtures. Department of Foreign
Qresponse to diplomatic overtures. Department of Foreign
Affairs and Trade negotiator Paula Watt said the PM's brief
on whaling for the trip was being substantially revised and
upgraded. Watt and Williams both pointed to public
statements from Japanese FM Okada last week, a refusal to
discuss the range of a reduction for or reduce whale quotas
and stalling in recent support group meetings as reasons why
the PM needed to send this message. FM Okada's comments,
particularly on the eve of Rudd's visit, were seen as a slap
in the face and undermined confidence that Japan is serious
about making progress on this issue.


5. (C/NF) Watt appeared disheartened over the recent support
group meeting in Seattle. She said that the Japanese actions
in the recent IWC and related sub-venue meetings are intended
to split off anti-whaling countries one by one and isolate

CANBERRA 00001099 002 OF 002


Australia. Recognizing that the risk of escalation with
Japan was high, Watt said that the timeframe for seeing this
process through the IWC 62 meetings next year was now
questionable. Williams echoed that concern, saying Rudd and
the government would be under great pressure to take action
before IWC 62 if diplomacy is seen as a dead end. Japanese
unwillingness to signal any concession until late January
meant that it would be too late to respond if the offer was
inadequate. Watt suggested this was intentional strategy,
and Japan is not preparing a serious response.


6. (C/NF) The Sea Shepherd anti-whaling group is now at sea
with two vessels and expected to encounter the Japanese fleet
this week. Both Watt and Williams said that the timing of
the visit was unfortunate, with Japan likely to harpoon its
first whale while Rudd is in Tokyo. Williams said that
whaling is not the focus of the trip, but Australia will not
shy away from it and will put it on the agenda. Watt said
the GOA believes that activists are planning a significant
escalation in the Southern Ocean this year, which will
trigger greater public scrutiny on Australia's diplomatic
efforts. Watt said the public focus, combined with
perceived Japanese escalation, has pushed Rudd into Garrett's
camp. Special Envoy Sandy Hollway is being prepped to travel
to Tokyo in January, Watt said. Watt also said that as
progress is unlikely over the holiday season, whaling is an
issue that may come up in the AUSMIN meetings in mid-January.

CLUNE