AUSTRALIA SEARCHES FOR ASYLUM SEEKER SOLUTION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001006

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2019
TAGS: ECON ELAB PREF PREL SMIG AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA SEARCHES FOR ASYLUM SEEKER SOLUTION

REF: A. A. CANBERRA 255

B. B. CANBERRA 807

C. C. CANBERRA 934

Classified By: Political/Economic Counselor Edgard D. Kagan. Reasons 1
.4 (b, d)


1. (S/NF) Summary: Australia has asked Sri Lanka to do more
to stop the flood of Tamil asylum seekers, as the standoff
with 78 of them on board an Australian Customs vessel
approaches resolution. The government is offering faster
resettlement if they agree to disembark in Indonesia, and it
appears that 20 of them are willing to take the offer. The
Australian government is grateful for intelligence assistance
provided by the United States to track people smugglers.
Prime Minister Rudd has been hit in the opinion polls and
annoyed some in his party with his performance on the border
protection issue. The Opposition is accusing him of
capitulating to the 78 Tamils. End Summary.

Seeking Sri Lanka's help
--------------


2. (SBU) Australia and Sri Lanka signed November 9 a
Memorandum of Understanding pledging increased cooperation on
combating people smuggling; strengthening extradition
processes; reconstruction and rehabilitation of Sri Lanka's
Northern and Eastern Provinces; and undertaking a public
information campaign to alert Sri Lankan citizens to the
dangers of maritime people smuggling.

Grateful for U.S. assistance
--------------


3. (S/NF) The First Assistant Secretary for Homeland and
Border Security at the Department of Prime Minister and
Cabinet told us November 10 that the Australian government is
grateful for intelligence assistance provided by the United
States to track people smugglers. He added that Australian
diplomats are developing a regional maritime response (with
Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Malaysia) to destroy people
smugglers' business models, and that a bilateral agreement
with Indonesia is being negotiated.

Stand-off approaches resolution
--------------


4. (SBU) Meanwhile, the standoff involving an Australian
Customs vessel, Indonesia and 78 Tamil asylum seekers is into
its fourth week. Prime Minister Rudd is adamant they will
not be processed in Australia; and that he expects the
agreement between Australia and Indonesia to be honored.
Australian officials have offered to expedite resettlement,
assist with refugee applications and arrange English language
classes if they disembark in Indonesia. So far, it appears
20 have taken this up. The government concedes a large
proportion of the 78 will end up in Australia. Opposition
MPs are accusing the government of capitulating and sending
the wrong signal to people smugglers. Rudd is expected to
meet President Yudhoyono on the sidelines of APEC this
weekend.

Opposition smells blood
--------------


5. (C/NF) A key Liberal party strategist told us the issue
was "fantastic" and "the more boats that come the better" but
his research indicated only a "slight trend" towards the
Coalition, contrary to a local media poll which showed a big
cut to the Labor party's lead. He said the issue was
significant because it was the first time Rudd had been
exposed for a lack of leadership and for "trying to be all
things to all people".

Labor MP critical of Rudd
--------------


6. (C/NF) Labor MP Michael Danby - who previously expressed
Q6. (C/NF) Labor MP Michael Danby - who previously expressed
public concern over Rudd's tough rhetoric - told us he agreed
with the government's policy, but that Rudd had played the
politics badly. He confided that Rudd's media blitz on the
issue last week showed Rudd "completely misread" the message
from the recent poll (which Danby believes is accurate).
Danby contends Rudd should have said nothing, rather than

CANBERRA 00001006 002 OF 002


fuel the issue.


7. (C/NF) Comment: During the last parliamentary sitting,
Rudd briefly showed confidence and plain speaking when he
slammed the former government's approach that "had kids
behind razor wire" and pointed out the global factors at
play. He has since returned to tedious spin and bureaucratic
jargon making him look evasive and out of his depth. If the
standoff on the Customs vessel is resolved, Rudd will spin
this as a win for his brinkmanship and the issue may cool
politically. On the other hand, the Opposition will have
substantial ammunition to lambast Rudd's "tough" approach on
border protection. Rudd almost certainly will not change
tack and re-introduce some of the previous government's tough
immigration laws. Doing so would be a humiliation for him
and would cause internal dissent. End Comment.

CLUNE