MFA ON SYRIA, LEBANON AND YEMEM

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 000888

SIPDIS

NSC FOR KUMAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SY YE LE EG
SUBJECT: MFA ON SYRIA, LEBANON AND YEMEM

Classified By: COUNSELOR CATHERINE HILL-HERNDON
REASONS: 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Key points:

-- SYRIA: MFA Cabinet Advisor Mahmoud Afifi told us May 18
that the tenor of Egyptian-Syrian relations has improved
recently, and that Damascus appears to be taking a less
obstreperous posture toward Egyptians efforts at Palestinian
reconciliation.

-- LEBANON: Afifi said that the Egyptians believe the message
of Nasrallah's May 15 speech was that he intends to remain
the "master" in Lebanon regardless of the June electoral
result.

-- YEMEN: Afifi said that Egypt is increasingly worried about
the situation in Yemen. Recent President Mubarak phone calls
to President Saleh have only heightened GOE concerns that the
Yemeni government may be in over its head in the south.


2. (C) Afifi characterized Syrian behavior as "really polite"
over the past three months. Media attacks on Egypt have
abated. While there has been no real increase in bilateral
cooperation, Afifi said that the Syrians no longer appear to
be actively working against Egyptian efforts to broker
Palestinian reconciliation. He assessed that the Saudis are
"pulling back a bit" from their initial outreach to Damascus
(which began in February),and are taking a "wait and see"
approach in the run-up to the Lebanese elections.


3. (C) Afifi said that the Egyptian embassy in Damascus had
reported Syrian displeasure over the May 15 Nasrallah speech
in Lebanon, and are worried that Nasrallah may be seeking to
stir things up at a time when Damascus wants calm in Lebanon.
Afifi said that the MFA had sent a note to the Presidency
following the Nasrallah speech assessing that Nasrallah,s
message was that he expects to remain the "master" in Lebanon
regardless of the electoral result. In addition, Afifi noted
that the Syrians remain perpetually worried about losing
influence in Lebanon, including through greater assertion of
power and independence by Hizballah.


4. (C) Yemen: Afifi denied media reports that the Egyptians
are mediating between the Yemeni government and rebel groups.
However, he said there is an "Egyptian-Saudi plan," but that
it had not been activated. Afifi said that Mubarak had
called Yemeni President Saleh twice in the past week over the
situation with the rebels, and that Salah had told Mubarak
that "everything is under control," something that has only
made the Egyptians more nervous given their assessment of
reality on the ground. Afifi said that the specific Egyptian
concern is that three rebel movements (i.e. the separatists,
Islamists and the Houthis) are all active, and the Yemeni
government could potentially be overwhelmed. He also said
that recent Yemeni political and economic decisions for the
benefit of northerners had antagonized southern Yemenis. He
opined that the Yemenis need to activate retired military
officers in the south to stabilize the situation. Afifi said
he had recommended FM Aboul Gheit call Saudi FM Saud al
Faisal to consult, noting that the Saudis may not view the
current situation with the same level of urgency
SCOBEY