EGYPTIAN MFA REACTS TO VISIT OF S/E GRATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000826

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2019
TAGS: PREL SU QA EG
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN MFA REACTS TO VISIT OF S/E GRATION

REF: CAIRO 822

Classified By: Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs Catherine
Hill-Herndon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Key Points:

-- Egyptian MFA Cabinet Advisor for African Affairs told us
on May 4 that the visit of S/E for Sudan, General J. Scott
Gration, was a very good opportunity for Government of Egypt
(GOE) and the USG to exchange views on Sudan (reftel).

-- Abu Zeid agreed with S/E Gration's call for an interim
ceasefire could be a tactic used to address humanitarian
needs, but did not feel that it would succeed due to the lack
of a comprehensive political strategy.

-- Egypt does not believe that the Doha process will lead to
a resolution on Darfur and feels efforts to woo JEM leader
Khalil Ibrahim to the table are counterproductive.

-- Egypt sent a request to Sir Derek Plombly, the Chairman of
the Assessment and Evaluation Committee (AEC) for the CPA, to
join the committee because the GOE is committed to CPA
implementation, and it is the only Arab state to have a
Embassy in Khartoum and a consulate in Juba.

-- The Government of Sudan (GOS) would cooperate with USG if
it offered a comprehensive solution including a resolution to
the ICC. Egypt feels that an international conference could
provide a framework that would compel the GOS to cooperate.



2. (C) Comment: The GOE's lack of trust in the Doha process
and the efforts to bring JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim to the
negotiation table is partly driven by its current antipathy
for Qatar, but Egypt's view is also shared by nearly all
Darfuri leaders in Cairo. Egypt has a deep conviction in its
proposal for an international conference and has advocated
for this idea many times. However, it is reticent to take
the lead because it does not want to be embarrassed if the
conference fails to produce the desired results. The U.K.
Embassy in Cairo told us on May 10 that AEC Chairman Sir
Derek Plombly visited Cairo met with Aboul Gheit on the
morning of May 10. We assume that FM Aboul Gheit and Plombly
discussed Egypt's request to participate in the AEC for the
CPA. End Comment.

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Darfur: Looking for A Strategy, Not Tactics
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3. (C) Abu Zeid agreed that S/E Gration's call for an interim
ceasefire would help to address the humanitarian situation in
Darfur, but he is skeptical that an interim ceasefire would
succeed without a comprehensive political framework to hold
the signatories to their commitments (reftel). He reiterated
that Egypt is worried about the USG's strategy to support the
Doha talks. Abu Zeid said the Qatari leadership is pushing
hard to make progress on any front even if it is only a
recommitment to a previous agreement, as with the Sudan-Chad
ceasefire. He said that Egypt believes that progress should
not come at the expense of strategy, and he opined that there
is a need for something "more sustainable and strategic."
Abu Zeid said that pushing JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim was a
"tactical move" to convince lobby groups in the U.S. that
progress was being made, but there was "a lack of strategic
thinking" of how to deliver a comprehensive agreement. He
stated that insisting on Ibrahim's presence at the
negotiations also sends the wrong message to the other rebel
groups.

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Looking to Become More Involved in CPA Implementation
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4. (C) Abu Zeid told us that the GOE asked Sir Derek Plombly,
the Chairman of the AEC for the CPA, to join the committee
because Egypt is committed to CPA implementation. He said
that Egypt is the only Arab state with an Embassy in Khartoum
and a consulate in Juba, and as such needed to be on the
committee. Abu Zeid stated that the Arab League (AL)Qs
currently on the committee, but did not attend the meetings.
Abu Zeid expressed concern that the biggest threat to the CPA
is the upcoming International Court of Justice (ICJ) decision
on the Abyei borders because no matter what the outcome, one
party will not accept it. (Note: There is some confusion as
to when the ICJ decision will be announced. According to the
U.N., a decision on the Abyei borders is expected by the end
of June. However, the Government of South Sudan says the

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decision is not expected until the end of July. Qd Note.)
He said that the GOE is concerned that the decision will
spark a renewed Misseriya-Dinka conflict.

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Sudanese Cooperation Possible, Egypt Pushing Conference
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5. (C) Abu Zeid said the Government of Sudan (GOS) is ready
to work with the USG "if it can see a light at the end of the
ICC tunnel." However, he stated that the U.S. was currently
not offering a comprehensive solution that would include a
resolution to the ICC. Abu Zeid said that Egypt's proposed
international conference could provide a comprehensive
approach that would compel the GOS to cooperate and not "play
games."
SCOBEY