FORMER SUDANESE PM AL MAHDI SPELLS OUT PLAN FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 000550

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, NE/ARP, AF/SPG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2019
TAGS: PREL KPKO PHUM PREF UN QA CD SU EG
SUBJECT: FORMER SUDANESE PM AL MAHDI SPELLS OUT PLAN FOR
SUDAN

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs
William R. Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Key Points

-- Former Sudanese PM Sadiq Al Mahdi said a "catastrophic
scenario" is unfolding in Sudan that threatens the
humanitarian situation in Darfur, the future peace talks and
the unity of the country.

-- Al Mahdi is proposing a "National Forum" composed of eight
political parties that would help to resolve the crisis by
facilitating the transition from the Bashir-led government to
a democratically-elected government and designing a legal
alternative to the ICC.

-- Al Mahdi told us that there must be a "Regional Security
Council" on Sudan that would involve neighbor states in a
solution to the crisis in the country. However, he sees no
role for the Arab League.

-- According to Al Mahdi, Egypt has not done enough to
resolve the situation in Sudan because it is "too cautious"
and "overly sympathetic" to the Government of Sudan (GOS),
but Al Mahdi is working to facilitate an Egyptian-Sudanese
civil society dialogue to address the crisis in Sudan.

-- Al Mahdi stated that the USG must play a pragmatic role in
helping to resolve the situation in Sudan because it is a
permanent member of the UNSC.


2. (C) Comment: Al Mahdi is a very astute political actor.
He has a vision to save Sudan and felt that the U.S. must
play a role in this process. Al Mahdi contrasted USG
interaction with Sudan over the past 15 years, and
highlighted the Bush Administration,s success of using
"practical engagement" that involved all relevant parties in
negotiations. Like other Sudanese leaders, such as Minni
Minawi and Darfur rebel leaders, Al Mahdi uses his Cairo
office as a base for diplomatic and media outreach because he
feels free to share his opinions without the threat of
Sudanese government reprisal.

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Government of Sudan Lacks Direction
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3. (C) Former Sudanese PM Sadiq Al Mahdi told Polmincons on
March 24 that the current situation in Sudan is a
"catastrophic scenario." He stated that the ICC arrest
warrant has "focused everything on Bashir," polarized the
country, and exacerbated the already bad situation. Al Mahdi
told us that all attention in Khartoum is focused on saving
Bashir from the ICC, but no one is talking about how to
resolve the political crisis or address the die economic and
humanitarian situation that has seen a 63% reduction in
government revenues and unmitigated suffering. He said that
the GOS is confused about what to do.


4. (C) Al Mahdi told us that the GOS hoped that sitting down
to talks with the JEM in Doha would persuade the ICC to
reject the charges against Bashir. However, since this did
not materialize, the GOS will not honor its commitment to
release JEM prisoners, and there is no longer a commitment to
the Doha Talks. Al Mahdi stated that the bilateral nature of
the Doha Talks also served to alienate other Darfur leaders
such as Abdel Wahid al-Nur and Minni Minawi, and made a
comprehensive agreement more remote. He said that the CPA is
"in the intensive care unit" because the NCP and SPLM no
longer have any confidence in one another. Al Mahdi stated
that unless there is significant change, most people have
resigned themselves to partition of the country in 2011.


5. (C) Al Mahdi told us that Bashir,s decision to expel the
NGO,s is symptomatic of the GOS,s confusion. He said that
the NGOs are not solely responsible for information that led
to the ICC,s issuance of an arrest warrant. He said that
the ICC received information from a variety of sources
including official visitors, people inside the regime, and
the global network of Darfuris. Al Mahdi said that the GOS
cannot replace the resources of the expelled NGOs. He told
us that if this was possible, the government would have
expelled the organizations long ago.


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A National Forum to Resolve the Crisis
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6. (C) Al Mahdi outlined his comprehensive package deal that
he believes will lead Sudan's political crisis to a "soft
landing." His proposal would facilitate a transition to a
post-Bashir era, avoid another conflict that would tear the
country apart, and help to preserve Sudanese unity. Al
Mahdi,s solution would create a "national forum" that would
focus on democratic reform, appoint a national interim
government, and design a legal alternative to the ICC. His
plan would also involve participation from regional and
international governments and organizations.


7. (C) Al Mahdi told us that his national forum would consist
of "Group of 8" political parties to stabilize the internal
situation in Sudan. The participating parties would include
the National Congress Party (NCP),the Sudan People,s
Liberation Movement (SPLM),the Democratic Union Party (DUP),
the Communist Party, SLA-Minni Minawi, the Eastern Front,
Hassan Al Turabi,s National Islamic Front and Al Mahdi,s
Umma Party. The Group of 8 needs to address the situation in
Darfur and address rebel concerns so the conflict does not
spread. The group would work with the NCP to facilitate a
transition from the Bashir-led government to a democratically
elected government by first appointing an interim national
government to lead the country. The interim government will
be responsible for the promotion of democratic reforms and
the organization of elections. It would also create an
indigenous, hybrid court to consider the charges against
Bashir.

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A Hybrid Court to Address Criminal Charges
--------------


8. (C) Al Mahdi said that because of the ICC Bashir is in a
"reactive mode," which led to the "unacceptable" decision to
expel the NGOs. Al Mahdi wants to change the tenor in the
country and remove the focus from Bashir. He believes that
there needs to be accountability for crimes committed in
Darfur, and is not in favor of any mechanism that would delay
the "accountability process." However, he is also not in
favor of handing Bashir over to the ICC. Al Mahdi proposes
the formation of a hybrid court to replace the ICC. The
court would be based in Khartoum, and would be composed of
Sudanese, African and Arab judges that would review criminal
charges against Bashir and others, and apply international
criminal law.

-------------- --
Getting Buy-in for his Plan from NCP and Turabi
-------------- --


9. (C) We expressed some skepticism about potential NCP
support for the Group of 8. Al Mahdi told us that the NCP
has many moderate voices, but they currently are being
drowned out by the "protect Bashir" voices. He said that any
softness on the ICC issue is viewed as "treason." However,
Al Mahdi feels that if the charges can be addressed in the
hybrid court format it would change the tenor within the NCP.
He said that if the NCP chooses Bashir could stand for
democratic elections, unless he is convicted by the hybrid
court. Al Mahdi believes that his brother-in-law, Hassan Al
Turabi would play a role in the Group. He said that Turabi
currently feels marginalized and vindictive, and is lashing
out in a "couldn't care less attitude." However, Al Mahdi is
confident that if given an opportunity he could "tuck Turabi
into the group."

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Arab League, Egypt and the Regional Role
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10. (C) Al Mahdi told us that there must be a "Regional
Security Council" on Sudan that would involve neighbor states
in a solution to the crisis in the country. He stated that
Chad must be part of this council because of the country,s
close ties to the JEM. He stated that JEM is gearing for
regime change in Sudan and therefore Chad must be involved in
the regional solution.


11. (C) Al Mahdi criticized the Government of Egypt (GOE) for

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not doing enough to help resolve the situation in Sudan. He
said that Egypt is "too cautious" and "overly sympathetic" to
the GOS because of its concerns for stability, and its fears
that if the Egyptian-Sudanese relationship soured the GOS
would support the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. However, Al
Mahdi said that Egyptian civil society was attempting to play
a role in uniting Sudanese parties and civil society. He
told us that the Umma Party is working with the Egyptian NDP
and other political parties to facilitate an
Egyptian-Sudanese dialogue to address the crisis in Sudan. Al
Mahdi said that the Arab League is "timid" and has "never
resolved anything." He sees no role for the League in
helping to bring stability to Sudan because the Arab League
sees Bashir as the only source of stability.

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The U.S. and the International Role
--------------


12. (C) Al Mahdi told us that the USG must play a major role
in helping to resolve the situation in Sudan, especially
since it is a permanent member of the UNSC. Al Mahdi stated
that ideological solutions to the problems in Sudan were not
needed, but he praised the pragmatic role that the Bush
Administration played in bringing together the NCP and SPLM
to sign the CPA. He encouraged President Obama to be
pragmatic on Sudan and work with all Sudanese parties to
resolve to crisis in the country.
SCOBEY