MB PARLIAMENTARY LEADER ON INCREASED GOE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001493

SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ELA AND DRL/NESCA
NSC FOR KUMAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2029
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM EG
SUBJECT: MB PARLIAMENTARY LEADER ON INCREASED GOE
PRE-ELECTION PRESSURE

REF: A. CAIRO 1467

B. CAIRO 1393

C. CAIRO 1148

D. CAIRO 597

E. CAIRO 328

F. CAIRO 283

G. 08 CAIRO 1315

Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. KEY POINTS

-- (S) Muslim Brotherhood (MB) MP and leader of the MB bloc
in the People's Assembly (PA) Dr. Mohammed Saad Katatni said
pressure on the MB has increased in the lead-up to the 2010
parliamentary elections, and is greater than before the 2005
and 2008 elections. He called the recent detention of MB
Guidance Council members part of an effort to sideline the MB
before a presidential transition.

-- (S) Katatni denied press reports of a deal where the MB
would not participate in the 2010 elections in exchange for
the release of recently arrested members. The MB continues
its election preparations, including selecting candidates to
run for the new seats allocated for women.

-- (S) Katatni offered no new insights on who would be the
new MB Supreme Guide following internal elections in December
2009, but said he expected the MB would change little as a
result.


2. (S) Comment: Katatni's remarks track from various
official MB spokesmen public statements. GOE pressure on the
MB continues to mount, and may increase as elections draw
closer. His insights on MB views on key legislation are
interesting but unlikely to influence its passage. Despite
the fact that Katatni himself is named by the GoE in the
documents used to arrest his fellow members of the Guidance
Council, he appeared relaxed when discussing the accusations
against him. His comment that the GOE is putting economic
pressure on the MB tracks with what we heard in mid-July from
a businessman-NGO director in the Delta city of Mansoura (ref
B). End comment.


3. (S) PolOff met on July 29 with Dr. Mohammed Saad Katatni,
an independent member of parliament affiliated with the MB
who is the leader of the 86 member MB bloc in the People's
Assembly(PA),Egypt's lower house of parliament. Katatni
defined the current political environment as "difficult."
According to Katatni, in the lead-up to the 2010
parliamentary and 2011 presidential elections the GoE is
using a variety of tactics, including economic pressure, to
"contain" the MB. He added that the GoE's effort to curtail
MB activities was stronger now than it had been before the
2005 parliamentary elections and the 2008 local council
elections. Katatni cited two specific reasons for the
increased pressure: differences of opinion on Egypt's role
in the Gaza crisis, and the government's desire to wipe out
any opposition in the lead-up to presidential transition.
According to Katatni, the GoE exaggerates the threat MB
poses. "We differ from the regime but we still love Egypt.
We also prefer stability," he said. (Note: Poloff called on
Katatni in course of her introductory rounds with key members
of Parliament. The office call was the first one-on-one
exchange with an Embassy officer in many months. End note.)


4. (S) Katatni called the recent detentions of Guidance
Council members (ref A) part of the ongoing clampdown on the
MB. Katatni, himself a member of the Guidance Council (ref
G),said the accusations of money laundering had become
commonplace and that there was no evidence to support them.
Katatni's name is mentioned in the "investigation memo" that
outlines the accusations, though his status as an MP gives
him immunity from prosecution. In Katatni's view, the GoE
goal is to keep MB leaders in jail until the elections are
over. Katatni strongly refuted press reports of a deal
between the MB and the GoE where the MB would commit to
curtail its election participation in exchange for the
release of its recently detained leaders. This follows
similar denials in the press by the MB Supreme Guide Mehdi
Akef.


5. (S) Katatni said that, despite these circumstances, the MB
plans to field candidates for the parliamentary elections,
including candidates for the 64 seats newly created in the PA
for women (ref C). He could not say how many candidates the
MB would field, nor how many constituencies they expect to
run in. Those decisions, he said, would "depend" on how the

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situation develops in the coming months. Katatni confirmed
the MB will continue to postpone the release of its party
platform, believing that its publication would be viewed as a
provocation. In February 2009, MB Supreme Guide Mehdi Akef
announced he would "indefinitely postpone" finalizing the
controversial draft document (ref E). Originally leaked to
the media in September 2007, two recommendations prompted
public criticism from outside the MB as well as within. The
first was the creation of a "Senior Religious Scholars Group"
that would review draft legislation and the second a
prohibition of a woman or Copt as president. Katatni also
denied any internal rift within the MB, which some observers
believed the publically-aired internal criticism on the
platform had implied. He did say that the draft platform had
been revised and that "some" of the controversial elements
were removed.


6. (S) In his role as leader of the MB bloc in parliament,
Katatni said the MB had a broad legislative agenda, but he
complained that MB-affiliated "independent" parliamentarians
faced several roadblocks. Katatni cited as an example his
submission of draft legislation on political party
registration which would eliminate an NDP controlled
committee that, along with a judge, currently approves new
applications. In Katatni's view, the judge's ruling is
sufficient to determine the legality of any given
application. After two years, Katatni's bill has not been
moved to the relevant committee for formal review. (Comment:
We do not expect the GOE will allow the bill to move
forward. End comment.)


7. (S) Commenting on other key legislation expected to be on
the PA's agenda in November session, Katatni called the draft
counterterrorism law, which would replace the Emergency Law,
a "government project" and said he had not yet seen a draft.
The MB believes that Egypt's Criminal Code is sufficient and
neither an emergency law or a counter-terrorism law is
required. On a draft comprehensive law on the construction
and repair of places of worship, Katatni suggested that the
constitution secured the right to worship freely. His
concern about the new legislation was that it would somehow
further restrict the right to assembly. According to
Katatni, the MB now does most of its organizing in mosques
because it was never given the required permission to hold
public gatherings elsewhere. (Comment: His link between the
new law and further restrictions on religious gatherings is
not clear. End comment.)


8. (S) Katatni also outlined the internal process to select a
new MB Supreme Guide to replace Mehdi Akef, who announced his
retirement earlier this year (ref D). The MB's Shura Council
consisting of 75 elected and 15 appointed members will elect
one of its own as the new Guide in late December 2009. The
75 elected members represent the various governorates and are
elected locally. Numbers of representatives depend upon the
number of MB members in each governorate. Katatni was
unwilling to name any leading candidates. He did say that he
did not expect a major change in the direction the MB would
take under a new Supreme Guide. Specifically, some have
speculated that if the MB elects a member of the conservative
trend, the MB will turn away from politics and return to a
more traditional religious "dawa" role. Katatni said the
two, religious activity and political engagement, would
remain as parallel tracks.
SCOBEY