GENERAL PETRAEUS' MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MUBARAK

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001351

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2019
TAGS: PREL PARM MASS IR IZ KPAL IS AF PK EG
SUBJECT: GENERAL PETRAEUS' MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MUBARAK

Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey per 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. Key Points:

-- (S/NF) During a June 29 meeting with CENTCOM Commander
General Petraeus, President Mubarak shared his views on Iraq,
Afghanistan/Pakistan, Iran, Palestinian reconciliation, and
counter smuggling.

-- (S/NF) On Iraq, General Petraeus thanked Mubarak for
naming a new Egyptian Ambassador to Iraq. Mubarak expressed
concern over the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraqi cities.

-- (S/NF) Mubarak warned against trusting the Iranian
government and said the current turmoil represented a "crack"
in the Iranian power structure. He relayed concerns that
Iran wanted to establish "pockets" of influence in Egypt.

-- (S/NF) On Syria, Mubarak advocated for bringing Syria back
to the Arab fold, but doubted that the Syrian government
would completely sever its links with Iran. He also stressed
the importance of solving the "Iranian problem" in order to
promote stability in Lebanon.
-- (S/NF) Mubarak said Egypt has been "very active" in
countering arms smuggling to Gaza, outlining Egyptian efforts
to gather intelligence on smuggling networks and improve
security along the Egypt-Gaza border.

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Iraq
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2. (S/NF) General Petraeus thanked President Mubarak for
naming a new Egyptian Ambassador to Iraq. Mubarak expressed
concern that U.S. forces were pulling out of Iraqi cities.
General Petraeus explained that U.S. troops would remain in
coordination centers throughout the country and could
re-engage if necessary to support Iraqi security forces.
Mubarak opined that Iraq needs a strong leader, believing
that democracy had already failed and would never work in
Iraq. General Petraeus replied that Iraqi Prime Minister
Nouri Maliki must demonstrate he can be a fair leader for all
Iraqis, and expressed guarded optimism for Iraq's future
given the reduction in violence and Iraq's economic potential.

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Afghanistan and Pakistan
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3. (S/NF) General Petraeus said he was encouraged by the
Pakistani military's recent progress against the Taliban,
including their first "competent" campaign in the Swat Valley
against extremists. Mubarak noted there are many extremists
in Pakistan, most of which were "Muslim Brothers."


4. (S/NF) Mubarak warned that the U.S. should be "very
careful" with its troop buildup in Afghanistan. General
Petraeus stressed that the U.S. and Egypt must be partners in
supporting stability in Afghanistan, noting that improving
governance was the greatest challenge. Mubarak was curious
if Afghan President Karzai would run again in the August
presidential elections. He mentioned that Egypt used to have
"very good" communication with the "sheikhs" in Afghanistan,
which produced good intelligence, but noted those links no
longer existed.

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Iran
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5. (S/NF) General Petraeus expressed U.S. concerns over
Iran, noting that Iranian actions were pushing the Gulf
states toward greater cooperation with the U.S., including
increased Patriot missile deployment and improved F-16
capability in the United Arab Emirates. Mubarak provided his
standard warning on engaging with Iran, saying "do not trust
them. They will not do what they say." "Religious
governments do not last," Mubarak continued, asserting that
the present turmoil represented a "crack" in the Iranian
power structure and predicted that factions within the
government would "work hard against each other."


6. (S/NF) Mubarak said that two separate Iranian delegations
had tried to persuade him to recognize their government.
Mubarak believed Iran wanted to establish "pockets" of
influence inside Egypt. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
will not accept a nuclear Iran, Mubarak asserted, adding that
"Israel has a plan, it seems" to use military action against
Iran, which Mubarak believed the U.S. would be forced to

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support.


7. (S/NF) On Syria, Mubarak said the Syrian government
should be persuaded to be "more flexible," but stressed that
"it will take time" for Syria to return to the Arab fold. He
doubted that Syria could be "completely" pried away from Iran
and asserted that much of the funding Syria receives comes
from Qatar. Mubarak voiced his distrust of the Qataris,
claiming they had channeled hundreds of millions of dollars
to Lebanon and Libya, and lesser amounts to Chad and Sudan.
Mubarak shared that King Abdullah of Jordan had told him
Syria was causing trouble in Jordan, which Egypt was
"helping" Jordan address. Mubarak also said that Iran and
Hezbollah were "spoiling" Lebanon and emphasized that
progress in Lebanon depended on "solving the Iranian problem"
first.

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Counter Smuggling, Palestinian Reconciliation
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8. (S/NF) Mubarak said Egypt had been "very active" in
trying to halt arms smuggling to Gaza. He reviewed Egyptian
efforts to collect intelligence on smuggling and reiterated
his long-standing belief that many of the arms entered Gaza
from "the sea." Mubarak outlined Egyptian efforts to combat
smuggling through the tunnels along the Egypt-Gaza border,
including the construction of a subterranean steel wall. "We
are trying" to stop arms smuggling, Mubarak stressed.


9. (S/NF) Mubarak said Palestinian reconciliation will take
time, and must be approached "one step at a time." He claimed
Syria and Qatar were interfering with Egyptian efforts,
including by offering Hamas $50 million to keep captured
Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit captive. Mubarak said he advised
Israeli Defense Minister Barak to "keep the Shalit issue
quiet."

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Biographical Note
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10. (S/NF) Mubarak was alert and talkative throughout the
meeting, which lasted over an hour. He appeared to be in good
health.


11. (U) General Petraeus cleared this cable.
SCOBEY