EGYPTIAN IDEAS ON SOMALIA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001341

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/ARP, AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2019
TAGS: PREL PTER KTFN ER SO QA EG
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN IDEAS ON SOMALIA

Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S/NF) Key Points:

-- Assistant Minister for African Affairs Mona Omar told the
Ambassador that the Government of Egypt (GoE) considers the
current situation in Somalia to be the most important on the
African continent, and it has put together a plan to try to
prevent Al Shibaab from succeeding in Somalia and expanding
its influence into other countries in the region.

-- The GoE wants to work with the USG to split Shaykh Hassan
Dahir Aweys from Al Shibaab by offering to remove Aweys from
the "terrorist list" in exchange for his participation in a
GoE-sponsored dialogue. Talks would be in Cairo between
Shaykh Aweys and representatives of Transitional Federal
Government (TFG).

-- Egypt also proposes incentivizing Aweys' backers in
Eritrea by using U.S. influence to forestall potential UNSC
sanctions against Eritrea. Omar said that while the GOE
maintains good relations with the Eritrean Government, it has
not been in touch with Shaykh Aweys or Eritrean President
Isaias Afworki to gauge their receptivity to the proposal.

-- The Ambassador told Omar that the U.S. appreciates
Egyptian efforts to cooperate on Somalia. She noted that any
delisting process would be complex, but undertook to convey
GoE ideas to Washington. Omar extended an invitation to A/S
Carson to visit Cairo to consult on African issues.


2. (S/NF) Comment: The Egyptians are casting about for
practical ways to prevent Al Shibaab from displacing the TFG.
We believe that the GoE would welcome a USG response or
counterproposal to their ideas and Egyptian officials appear
to be open to a bilateral discussion on ways to support the
government of Shaykh Sharif. Post believes an A/S Carson
visit to Cairo to engage GoE officials on Somalia, Sudan and
other areas of common interest in Africa would be a
constructive way forward. End Comment.


3. (S/NF) Ambassador met with Assistant Minister for African
Affairs, Mona Omar, on July 9. Omar told the Ambassador that
the GoE considers the current situation in Somalia to be "the
most important on the African continent." She said that
Egypt is concerned that if Al Shibaab succeeds in Somalia, it
will look to other countries in the region to expand its
"cancerous" movement. Omar stated that Al Shibaab is using
Shaykh Hassan Dahir Aweys as a Somali facade, but the group
is in fact is dominated by "foreign leadership" with links to
Al Qaeda.


4. (S/NF) Omar told the Ambassador that the GoE has a plan to
split Shaykh Aweys from Al Shibaab. However, she
acknowledged that Egypt needs U.S. assistance. Omar said
that GoE wants bring Shaykh Aweys to Cairo for a dialogue
with the TFG leadership, but in order to do so it needs to
offer him "a carrot." The carrot is the removal of Shaykh
Aweys from the U.S. and U.N. terrorist lists. (Note: Shaykh
Aweys is currently designated under Executive Order 13224 &
by the United Nations Security Council 1267 Sanctions
Committee. End Note). Ambassador asked Omar for her
assessment of Shaykh Aweys' goals. Omar responded by saying
that Aweys wants to be President, but he can be "bribed" with
another position such as "Deputy President".


5. (S/NF) Omar mentioned to the Ambassador that the GoE would
also need to offer a concession to Eritrean President
Afworki, whom she referred to as Aweys' "godfather," to gain
his consent for Aweys to accept the Egyptian invitation. She
believes that the USG could use its influence to delay
potential UNSC sanctions against Eritrea. According to Omar,
the idea of sanctions against Eritrea for supporting Al
Shibaab met with no objections at the July 1-3 AU Summit in
Libya. She admitted that Eritrea was financing and providing
arms to Aweys and the Shibaab in Somalia, but she said that
sanctions are the wrong move because they will only deepen
Eritrea's isolation. Omar stated that Eritrea is not the
primary source of the Shibaab funding, and she hypothesized
that the money could be coming from individuals in Qatar,
Iran, or Saudi Arabia.


6. (S/NF) Omar met in Cairo on July 5 with Somali FM Omaar.
She told the Ambassador that the Somali FM asserted that
Shaykh Aweys was not involved in terrorism against American
interests. The Somali FM told Omar that Al Shibaab were not
loyal to Shaykh Aweys and would probably discard him after
accomplishing their objectives. Omar said that the Somali FM

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was also working to integrate 500 soldiers from his native
Somaliland into the Somali Joint Forces.


7. (S/NF) Omar told the Ambassador that if the USG agrees to
work with the GoE on this issue, Egypt will solicit support
from other countries in the Horn of Africa region as well as
the Arab League, African Union, and Organization of the
Islamic Conference to assure a "collective approach." She
said that Egypt's goal is to shore up the TFG, unite Somalia,
and bring peace and security to the region. However, Omar
said that the GoE has not been in touch with Shaykh Aweys or
Eritrean President Isaias Afworki to gauge their receptivity
to the proposal. The Ambassador told Omar that the USG
appreciates Egyptian efforts to cooperate on Somalia and
would convey GoE ideas to Washington. She questioned why the
U.S. would seek to delay sanctions when the entire AU had not
objected and noted that delisting could be complicated. Omar
extended an invitation to A/S Carson to visit Cairo to
consult on African issues.
SCOBEY