ARAB LEAGUE ON SUDAN AND SOMALIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 001301

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/ARP, AF/SPG, AF/E, AF/C,
NAIROBI FOR TRIMBLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2019
TAGS: PREL PTER SO SU ER QA CD EG
SUBJECT: ARAB LEAGUE ON SUDAN AND SOMALIA

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs
Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Key Points:

-- Zeid Al Sabban, African Affairs advisor to Arab League
(AL) SYG Amre Moussa said that the recent meeting with A/S
Carter and S/E Gration at the AU Summit was "very good."
Moussa was upset by the allegation that Qatar was supporting
the Somali Al Shibaab through funds given to the Government
of Eritrea and he asked the Qatari Prince about the support.
The Qatari Prince denied supporting Al Shibaab.

-- The AL views the Somali Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) as the "last chance" for the country. The League
supports the USG decision to arm the TFG in the short term,
but believes the long term goal should be a dialogue between
all Somali parties.

-- According to Al Sabban, the SYG said the AL shares U.S.
concerns on North-South issues and the upcoming Abyei border
demarcation, and it views the "tripartite engagement" between
the USG, SPLM and NCP as "only hope" for Sudan. However,
unlike the USG, the League plans to make a push for the unity
of Sudan.

-- The AL is concerned about the recent accord between the
Umma Party and the JEM because it views the agreement as a
"peaceful step toward regime change."


2. (C) Comment: Strong and vocal AL support for U.S. policies
in Sudan and Somalia is welcome. During his speech at the AU
Summit, Moussa praised President Obama and the role of U.S.
numerous times. However, it is not clear what level of
influence he brings to bear in either country. The AL speaks
with all parties in Somalia, but we assess that its influence
in Somalia is probably less than in Sudan. End Comment.

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TFG May Represent Last Chance for Somalia
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3. (C) Zeid Al Sabban told us on July 6 that the meeting with
A/S Carter and S/E Gration on the margins of the AU Summit in
Sirte, Libya was "very good". He stated that Moussa was
"surprised and upset" by the U.S. assertion that Qatar was
funding the Al Shibaab in Somalia through the Government of
Eritrea. Moussa mentioned this to the Crown Prince of Qatar
who denied that Qatar had any role in funding the Al Shibaab.
The Arab League offered to arrange a meeting between U.S.
officials and Qatari Prime Minister Hamad, or Minister of
State for Political Affairs Ahmad Al Mahmoud to discuss the
issue.


4. (C) Al Sabban told us that the AL pledged $1 million to
support the TFG at the meeting of the International Contact
Group on Somalia in Rome. He said that the AL supports the
USG decision to arm the TFG in the short term because it is
concerned that if the TFG fails, "we will the chance to
change Somalia for the better." However, the AL believes
that the long term goal should be dialogue between the
various Somali parties. Al Sabban said that support from
other Arab countries for Somalia was not forthcoming because
Riyadh has spent $700 million on Somalia and "is fatigued."
Egypt is also concerned, but does not appear to be interested
in a joint Arab League/African Union initiative.

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AL Supports U.S. Policy on Sudan; Concerned about the Future
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5. (C) Al Sabban told us that SYG Moussa was happy to meet
with S/E Gration and the SYG noted that the AL and USG
positions on Sudan are "very close." He stated that the AL
shares U.S. concerns on North-South issues and the upcoming
Abyei border demarcation, but unlike the USG, it plans to
make a "push for the unity of Sudan." According to Al
Sabban, Moussa was struck by S/E Gration's comment that 85%
of South Sudanese were illiterate and Moussa felt the AL
needs to engage on the benefits of unity.


6. (C) Al Sabban told us that many "European countries" told
the AL, during AU Summit, that they disagreed with the U.S.
strategy in Sudan (NFI). However, he said that the AL views
the "tripartite engagement" between the USG, SPLM and NCP as
the "only hope" for Sudan. He said that U.S. engagement with
the GoS was a step in the right direction. Al Sabban said
the GoS was still cautious, but was engaged on the CPA and
appreciative that it could talk to the USG. He opined that
the SPLM has become unengaged on the CPA and he hoped that
Washington's rapprochement with Khartoum will force the
Government of South Sudan to lessen corruption and become
responsible for development.


7. (C) Al Sabban said that there are still many problems on
the horizon including the potential postponement of
elections, the lack of a resolution in Darfur, the question
of government legitimacy, and the indictment of President
Bashir. All these issues make for a very difficult
predicament. Al Sabban said that the AL was looking to work
with the U.S. and others to find ways to ease the pressure on
the GoS. He added that part of easing the pressure would be
to postpone elections and rethink the referendum until the
country was ready. Al Sabban told us that the AL was
supportive of U.S. efforts to bring a ceasefire to Darfur.
However, he said there was concern about uniting the efforts
of Qatar, Libya, and Egypt to resolve the Darfur conflict
because "all the eggs would be in one basket."

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Umma-JEM Agreement: A Step Toward Regime Change
-------------- --


8. (C) Al Sabban said that the recent accord between the Umma
Party and the JEM was a "significant political event" because
it brings together one of the most important and traditional
political parties and the strongest armed movement in Darfur.
He said that the agreement's threat to declare the government
illegitimate after July 9 is important because "unlike other
Arab countries," Sudan's pluralistic society makes legitimacy
important. Al Sabban opined that the agreement is "a
peaceful step toward regime change" and he felt it
strengthens the opposition movements. Al Sabban stated that
the GoS registered its concern about the accord, and he asked
the USG to encourage the JEM and the Government of Chad not
to use this accord to escalate the violence in Darfur.
SCOBEY