FRODEBU YOUTH ARE TALKING TOUGH - HOW FAR WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000627


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM BY
SUBJECT: FRODEBU YOUTH ARE TALKING TOUGH - HOW FAR WILL
THEY TAKE IT?

REF: A. BUJUMBURA 439

B. BUJUMBURA 488

Classified By: CDA Anthony Kleiber for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Patrick Nkurunziza, president of the FRODEBU
party's youth wing, stated that the group's primary objective
is to "protect the party" by acting as a "deterrent" against
the intimidation efforts of the ruling party's youth, the
Imbonerakure (ref A). To fulfill these goals, FRODEBU's
Central des Jeunes Democratiques (CJD - Gathering of Young
Democrats) is organizing rallies called "sports days," a
strategy intentionally copied directly from CNDD-FDD's
Imbonerakure methods. Unlike CNDD-FDD's youth, however, the
CJD is also making strong public statements promising to go
head-to-head with the Imbonerakure until the CNDD-FDD youth
back off of their rumored thug-like ways. Since the
Imbonerakure are said to be forming armed militias in some
communes, there is a fear that FRODEBU's youth will pursue an
equivalent response. Most political observers, however,
believe the CJD rhetoric is empty of real threat; they lack
the resources and probably the will to pursue an armed
response. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In Patrick Nkurunziza's November 17 meeting with
PolOff, he delivered a blunt, clear message on the CJD's
commitment to protecting the FRODEBU party and following
FRODEBU marching orders. To questions about the
organization's agenda, election preparations, or purpose, he
consistently and concisely responded that it depends on the
party leadership's instructions. "If the party says march,
we march." He defined the youth wing as a "response" to
CNDD-FDD's Imbonerakure: "we are afraid of the Imbonerakure
and exist for that reason." When pressed, he described CJD's
members: 18 - 35 years old, single or married, male or
female. Though he said CJD's total membership is unknown,
Patrick expressed confidence that the youth wing is
represented in every commune of all of Burundi's 17 provinces.


3. (C) For months, Imbonerakure groups have organized an
estimated 300 or more people to jog en masse through cities
and communes chanting slogans. According to some reports,
the cadences are quite hostile, including serious threats to
those who support opposition parties. CJD claims its "sports
days" are in response to these Imbonerakure events. Patrick
said that CJD is drawing an estimated 250 youth at each
gathering and promised to continue organizing these
counter-demonstrations "of force" until the Imbonerakure stop
their activities. (Note: It is common throughout Burundi for
people to go on long jogs or walks in very large groups on
Saturday and Sunday mornings. The jogging groups with
cadences and shouting are not always political. Rather the
tradition is now being used for political posturing and
propaganda. End note.)


4. (C) Patrick Nkurunziza informed PolOff that he and the
FRODEBU party are concerned that violence is coming, but not
from any other youth groups - only the Imbonerakure. Patrick
elaborated that if "the government" does not rein in the
Imbonerakure, there will certainly be violence. He
emphasized, however, that CJD is different than CNDD-FDD's
youth; it will make a show through sports but will not resort
to violence. More to the point, he stated that FRODEBU is
against violence. When asked to explain that statement
against FRODEBU's presidential candidate Domitien Ndayizeye
or FRODEBU vice-president Frederic Banvuginyunvira's comments
to the press that FRODEBU will continue down this path as
long as the ruling CNDD-FDD party does, Patrick replied that
he and the CJD will obey the party. He concluded with a
request that the USG press the GoB to stop the Imbonerakure.


5. (C) COMMENT: There are real concerns among the
international community and political parties that these
youth groups will push at each other, slowly escalating the
rhetoric, then the confrontations, until real violence breaks
out. While other parties also have youth wings, it is
FRODEBU's CJD that is the most verbally antagonistic and that
is now physically challenging the Imbonerakure with its own
large, aggressive gatherings. Despite this, and despite
Patrick Nkurunziza's assertive statements, political
observers believe that FRODEBU does not have the resources or
the will to pursue this course all the way to a violent
confrontation -- that this is a game of chicken that FRODEBU
has undertaken to try to halt the Imbonerakure's aggression.
Unfortunately, these political observers are not saying the
same of CNDD-FDD. Many fear that the Imbonerakure will take
up small arms in support of CNDD-FDD before this election
season is over. END COMMENT.


Kleiber