BUYOYA: PROSPECTS FOR PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000465


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV BY
SUBJECT: BUYOYA: PROSPECTS FOR PEACE

REF: BUJUMBURA 462 (NOTAL)

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CHARLES H. TWINING FOR
REASON 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) A discussion with former President Pierre Buyoya
September 9 about the turbulent history of the past elicited
his thoughts about the present and future of his country. In
a word, he is optimistic. Buyoya, looking fit and younger
than his sixty years, said that until he came on the scene
the conventional wisdom was that Burundi had no ethnic
problem, and predecessor President Bagaza did not want the
words Tutsi and Hutu mentioned. This was completely
unrealistic, and the lack of open discussion about it only
made things worse when tensions arose. He felt he had made a
start in 1988 when he created a commission, fifty percent
Hutu and fifty percent Tutsi, to consider the question of
national unity. Unfortunately, any dialogue begun was ruined
with the assassination of one President in 1993 and the death
of the next in the airplane crash with the Rwandan President
the following year, both incidents setting off all the
killing here.


2. (C) Buyoya is convinced that the ethnic issue has run its
course. The success of the Arusha process and subsequent
incorporation of ethnic quotas for government bodies in the
2005 constitution have completely defused the issue. Despite
some saying that ethnic quotas should be removed, this would
be absolutely the wrong move, the former President insisted.
He said they give confidence to all that their interests will
be protected. Any future change would have to be initiated
in the Senate, where he sits as a past President, and where
ethnic quotas are mandated.


3. (C) Asked about prospects for a calm election period, the
former President predicted there could well be violence if
the elections are anything but absolutely free and fair,
leaving a sense among the other candidates of having been
robbed of victory. If violence is to be avoided, there must
be an independent Electoral Commission, a respected Electoral
Code, and transparent government support for the process. If
there is violence, it will come after the election, and it
will be politically, not ethnically, motivated. He said
twice that the country remains quite fragile.


4. (C) President Buyoya believes the ongoing debate about
various aspects of the electoral process (reftel) is a
healthy one, out of which should come a consensus about how
it should best be organized. He said he has been working the
issue in three meetings with the Senate President and in
attending Senate sessions. We asked whether he remains in
contact with President Nkurunziza and various party leaders
in order to give them the benefit of his experience, and he
said yes.


5. (C) Comment. The former President departed the country
later September 9 to reengage on the Darfur peace process as
part of the AU wisemen's committee, including a September 13
meeting with Ambassador Gration, then to Bangui in his role
as facilitator of the reconciliation process. From our
narrow point of view, it is a pity that he leaves now, as his
voice -- and vote -- in the Senate would be useful later in
the week when the Electoral Code is likely to be considered
there. Asked whether rumors suggesting he may well be a
Presidential candidate in next year's election have a basis,
he said others have also asked him that. He has been
President twice, and that is quite enough, Buyoya observed.


Twining