FNL: OUT OF THE BUSH, BUT BANDITRY BLOOMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000419


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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2019
TAGS: KDEM ASEC PGOV PINS BY
SUBJECT: FNL: OUT OF THE BUSH, BUT BANDITRY BLOOMS

REF: BUJUMBURA 400

Classified By: CDA Charles Twining for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. SUMMARY. There is an overwhelming consensus among
political and security observers in Burundi that the Forces
Nationales de Liberation's (FNL) days of fighting in the bush
are truly over. Further, observers in Burundi find no
evidence of an organized FNL splinter group existing that is
ready or able to start a new political war. While it is true
that the FNL has factions, with some divisions becoming
increasingly public, and while it is true that some, perhaps
many, former FNL combatants are angry at a perceived FNL
failure to fulfill demobilization promises, none of these
former combatants have indicated a looming return to war.
However, political and security experts do expect to see a
rise in crime, particularly armed robbery, as former FNL
combatants find themselves at loose ends with no jobs and no
money, but with access to guns and grenades and a history of
subsisting on extortion and robbery. END SUMMARY.

SPLINTERS EXIST, BUT ARE NOT SHARP
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2. (C) FNL spokesperson Jean-Bosco Havyarimana openly stated
to PolOff on August 11 that there are former members of the
FNL turning against the party. He claimed that they are the
2,600 FNL members denied participation in the Disarmament,
Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) process by the
government and the DDR facilitation group. He also said that
denying these members DDR benefits (payment and a transition
kit of clothes and household goods) was a political strategy
to divide the FNL, in the hopes that these disappointed
former members would return to their homes and spread
negative press about the FNL. Havyarimana claimed the FNL is
combating the situation through an informal information
campaign that explains the FNL is not at fault and promises
to seek redress for them. When asked if these 2,600 have
weapons and could pose a threat, Havyarimana insisted that
they pose no danger, stating that during the war the FNL
controlled weapons as an organization and did not issue them
to individuals.


3. (C) Numerous other sources have also informed PolOff of
this cadre of disappointed people. However, these sources
interpret events differently than do Havyarimana and the FNL.
The FNL reportedly did some fast recruiting to inflate its
numbers at the end of 2008 by promising DDR benefits to the
new recruits. The South African-led facilitation group saw
through the ploy and pushed back; the FNL then dropped 2,600
names under pressure to clean up their membership lists.
These 2,600 likely received basic weapons training as new
recruits, but otherwise spent little time with the FNL before
the DDR process was in full swing. Most observers agree that
while this group is angry at the FNL, the consequences for
the FNL will be lost votes in the 2010 elections and not
violent conflict.


4. (C) There is a significant split between FNL's present
leadership and its former spokesperson Pasteur Habimana.
Formerly the source of much popular support for the FNL in
the bush, Habimana has been increasingly marginalized by the
FNL; EmbOff heard that he is blamed for inflating FNL's ranks
through those promised DDR benefits. He received a GoB
position as part of the DDR process, as second secretary to
the Embassy of Burundi in New Delhi, but that embassy does
not yet exist. The distance between Habimana and his former
comrades became public this past week when, on the
anniversary of the 2004 Gatumba refugee camp massacre, FNL
spokesperson Havyarimana publicly stated that Pasteur
Habimana's past claim of FNL responsibility for the Gatumba
massacre was inaccurate. Habimana retorted on national radio
that "I do not understand the intentions of the new FNL
spokesperson in saying the declarations I made about Gatumba
were my own. At the time of the declaration, neither the
President nor any other FNL leader said I lied."


5. (C) Since his New Delhi post exists only on paper thus
far, Habimana remains in Bujumbura, with no association with
the FNL. In a conversation with PolOff on August 14, Egide
Nduwimana, a former military commander and the local security
expert in BINUB's Office of Security said, "people say he is
now a ruling party member." We have also heard that Habimana
is now an "intern" at the National Intelligence Services
(SNR) and has become increasingly close to the ruling
CNDD-FDD. However, while this FNL-Habimana split is
increasingly public and perhaps also increasingly
acrimonious, Habimana is not known to have followers who
would support a violent escalation to the dispute.

BUSH DAYS DONE
--------------


6. (C) Tanzanian Ambassador Francis Mndolwa and South African
DCM Chris Botha are experienced Burundi political observers
who have been deeply involved in the DDR process. The South
Africans have been the driving force behind DDR, which
brought the FNL out of the bush in the first place, and the
Tanzanians have also been intimately involved throughout the
process, particularly as FNL has become a political party
(though first they had to drop the "palipehutu" reference to
their Hutu base from their name). In separate conversations,
Mndolwa and Botha stated unequivocally that the FNL is not
going back in the bush. BINUB's security expert Nduwimana
explained why:

-- The Burundian population is tired of this war (housing and
feeding rebels and suffering violence such as rape and
robbery).

-- The flow of money and weaponry from outside Burundi has
dried up to a trickle, enough to support banditry, but not a
rebel movement.

-- The international community is united in its investment in
the peace process.

-- No ideological basis or impetus exists anymore for the FNL
to battle the government, as run by the ruling CNDD-FDD
party. Nduwimana stated, "The Hutus ARE in charge."

-- The ruling party has intentionally and successfully
weakened the FNL.

CRIME TO CLIMB
--------------


7. (C) As the DDR process has come to a close (reftel),
observers have become increasingly concerned that former
combatants will turn to armed robbery once their DDR money
runs out. Rwandan DCM Desire Nyaruhirira stated that the
FNL's "head has been cut off," so they are not going back to
the fight, but that former FNL combatants are likely to
resort to crime, having the experience and the connections to
easily form small, effective criminal gangs. Botha and
Nduwimana agreed to this sentiment, with Botha observing that
the security threat will now be more "diffuse" - an issue of
banditry targeted not at any particular group or person for
ideological reasons, but based on opportunity and the
victim's perceived wealth.


8. COMMENT: Despite rumors persisting in US Government
circles, expatriate and Burundian political and security
experts in country see no indication the FNL or some splinter
hard-line wing is going back to the bush. However, under the
FNL, these boys and men did learn how to use guns and
grenades as well as how to set up ambushes and extort the
local population. These are not skill sets that easily
translate into anything other than criminal pursuits and Post
expects crime to rise as demobilized FNL run out of money.
END COMMENT.

Twining


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