Identifier
Created
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09BUJUMBURA416
2009-08-19 12:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bujumbura
Cable title:  

GUIDE TO BURUNDI'S REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTIES

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C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000416 


NAIROBI PLEASE PASS TO AMBASSADOR SLUTZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EAID BY
SUBJECT: GUIDE TO BURUNDI'S REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTIES

Classified By: CDA Charles Twining for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000416


NAIROBI PLEASE PASS TO AMBASSADOR SLUTZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EAID BY
SUBJECT: GUIDE TO BURUNDI'S REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTIES

Classified By: CDA Charles Twining for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) SUMMARY. This is a quick reference resource on
Burundi's active political parties. There are 43 registered
parties in Burundi, but only 15 are presently active. END
SUMMARY.

KEY POLITICAL PARTIES
--------------


2. (C) Conseil National pour la Defense de la Democratie -
Forces pour la Defense de la Democratie (CNDD-FDD)

- Ruling Party

- Predominantly Hutu; founded in 1994 as a rebel movement.

- CNDD-FDD signed a cease-fire agreement with the government
of Burundi in December 2002 and registered as a political
party in January 2005.

- 2005 Elections: CNDD-FDD won 67.3% of the Senate and 54.2%
of the National Assembly. It also won the presidency when
the parliament elected Pierre Nkurunziza to the position.

- 2010 Elections: President Nkurunziza is widely assumed to
be CNDD-FDD's 2010 presidential candidate, although this is
not yet official. At present, Nkurunziza is the only
political figure with a viable chance of wining, in part due
to CNDD-FDD's well-oiled political machine and in part
because no other party's presidential candidate has the
popularity or name recognition of Nkurunziza.

CNDD-FDD as a party, however, is expected to lose
parliamentary seats in the coming election; its popularity,
while still high compared to other parties, has waned in many
provinces, primarily due to the population's disappointment
in CNDD-FDD's unfulfilled political promises.


3. (C) Conseil National pour la Defense de la Democratie
(CNDD)

- Predominantly Hutu, but seems to desire an ethnicity-free
identity.

- After being dismissed from CNDD-FDD in 1998, party founder
Leonard Nyangoma continued to claim the name "CNDD-FDD."
However, the government required that he form a new party
with a new name, so he called it "CNDD." It was registered
in January 2005 and is not connected to the ruling CNDD-FDD
party.

- Nyangoma is one of the most outspoken and articulate of the
opposition political leaders. In addition, his historic role
as founder of CNDD-FDD, as well as his renowned intellect
give him a high stature in Burundi's political landscape.

- 2005 Elections: In 2005, CNDD won 10.2% of the Senate and

3.3% of the National Assembly.

- 2010 Elections: CNDD has not yet declared a presidential
candidate, but experienced political observers expect
Nyangoma will be the party's 2010 candidate. Party prospects
are unknown, but Nyangoma's presidential prospects are quite
limited. Nyangoma and the CNDD could have influence,
however, by throwing support to another party, probably
FRODEBU.


4. (C) Front for Democracy in Burundi (FRODEBU)

- Predominantly Hutu.

- 2005 Elections: In 2005, FRODEBU won 14.2% of the Senate
and 25.4% of the National Assembly.

- 2010 Elections: FRODEBU's presidential candidate is former
President of Burundi Domitien Ndayizeye. FRODEBU is a solid
member of the opposition political scene, but is not believed
to be strong enough alone to unseat CNDD-FDD. Political
experts state that FRODEBU needs, and will likely seek, a
coalition in order to gain enough votes to win the presidency
as well as a significant number of seats in parliament.


5. (C) Union for National Progress (UPRONA)

- Traditionally identified as the Tutsi party.

- UPRONA has a breakaway wing of the same name. The
hard-line faction split in opposition to the 2000 Arusha
Accords, asserting that no negotiations should occur with
those who committed genocide against Tutsis. The GoB
recognizes the original UPRONA party, not the splinter wing.

- On August 2, UPRONA held a party congress to elect new
leaders and further reunification efforts. Bonaventure
Niyoyankana (baby brother of the Minister of Defense),a
Tutsi from the GoB recognized wing, was elected president and
Concilie Nibigira, a Hutu of the splinter wing, was elected
the party's vice president. Political observers consider
this internal election a significant step toward
reunification as well as a good example of how parties can
conduct fair and peaceful internal elections.

- 2005 Elections: In 2005, UPRONA won 6.1% of the Senate and
12.7% of the National Assembly.

- 2010 Elections: UPRONA has not declared a 2010 presidential
candidate. UPRONA will likely win parliamentary seats again
in the coming elections, but observers do not expect the
party to be competitive for the presidency. As a mostly
Tutsi party in a majority-Hutu country, competing with strong
Hutu-dominated parties, UPRONA has no real chance of winning
a majority vote for the presidential seat.


6. (C) Forces Nationales de Liberation (FNL) (formerly
Palipehutu-FNL)

- Predominantly Hutu; founded in 1980 as a political
movement. Its armed branch was created in 1983.

- FNL signed the final cease-fire implementation agreement in
December 2008. The GoB registered FNL as a political party
in April 2009 after FNL leadership finally agreed to drop the
"palipehutu" (Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People)
from the party's name. Ethnic references are banned by
constitutional prohibition.

- 2005 Elections: In 2005, FNL was not a registered political
party.

- 2010 Elections: The FNL has not declared a 2010
presidential candidate, but FNL party president Agathon Rwasa
often speaks as if he is the candidate. FNL's prospects for
the elections are difficult to gauge considering they became
a political party just months ago. While FNL has support
throughout the countryside, it does not have political
experience, nor can it match the CNDD-FDD's party machinery.


7. (C) Union Pour la Democratie (UPD) Zigamibanga

- Predominantly Hutu, but working hard to attract Tutsi
support.

- While CNDD-FDD's head of ideology and propaganda, Hussein
Radjabu created UPD as a surreptitious, strategic alternative
party, in case the GoB did not register CNDD-FDD. Radjabu
planned to use UPD as CNDD-FDD's political arm and had UPD
registered in 2002, but when CNDD-FDD was registered in 2005,
UPD became unnecessary and then inactive.

- Radjabu went on to be president of CNDD-FDD and kingmaker
of Nkurunziza, but in February 2007, he was expelled from
CNDD-FDD and subsequently imprisoned for plotting to
overthrow the government. Radjabu then reactivated UPD,
installing his cousin Mohamed Feruzi as party president.

- 2005 Elections: UPD was not active in 2005.

- 2010 Elections: UPD is swiftly growing in popularity in the
interior. Radjabu runs the party from jail and is an
experienced, no-holds-barred political operator. UPD has not
yet declared a presidential candidate; party representatives
informed PolOff that they have a candidate, but are "not
ready" to release his or her name.

Post expects UPD to do well in elections for the National
Assembly. The party's prospects for the presidential
election, however, remain as unknown as its candidate.


8. (C) Mouvement pour la Solidarite et la Democratie (MSD)

- MSD's founders are Hutu, but party president Alexis
Sinduhije is a Tutsi. The party's platform includes
overcoming ethnic conflict and division.

- The government registered MSD on June 8, 2009, after more
than a year of delays. The GoB reportedly delayed the
registration out of fear that Sinduhije will use his
influence effectively against the ruling party in the
upcoming elections.

- 2005 Elections: In 2005, MSD did not exist.

- 2010 Elections: Sinduhije, well-known former journalist and
manager of a popular radio station, is the presumed
presidential candidate, but has stated that he wishes to
create a primary process within his party to nominate the
presidential candidate.

Sinduhije's prospects as presidential candidate are limited.
He has support among the intelligentsia and in Bujumbura, but
it is said that he does not yet resonate with the general
populace in Burundi's interior. MSD's prospects for winning
parliamentary seats are unknown. Since MSD is so closely
identified with Sinduhije, it is difficult to assess the
popularity of MSD as a party. As with Sinduhije himself,
MSD's message and approach seem to connect with the
well-educated elite rather than the majority of Burundi's
population.


ACTIVE BUT MINOR POLITICAL PARTIES
--------------


9. (U) ABASA (African-Burundian Alliance for Salvation)

- Registered in July 1993; predominantly Tutsi.

- Although the party has few members, its leader, Ambassador
Terence Nsanze, remains vocal on all hot issues.


10. (U) ADR (Democratic Alliance for Revival)

- Registered in August 2008 by a splinter that broke away
from the ruling CNDD-FDD party.

- Strength and popularity are not yet known.


11. (U) CDP (Council of Patriots)

- Registered in March 2009; predominantly Hutu.

- Strength and popularity are not yet known.


12. (C) FRODEBU Nyakuri ("The Real" FRODEBU)

- Predominantly Hutu.

- In 2007, prominent FRODEBU member Dr. Jean Minani created
this faction and called it FRODEBU Nyakuri. The GoB
registered it in 2008, allowing FRODEBU Nyakuri use of the
name and symbols of the main FRODEBU party. Reports indicate
that the ruling party fostered the FRODEBU split after
Hussein Radjabu's February 2007 ouster from CNDD-FDD led to
CNDD-FDD losing its majority in the National Assembly.

- FRODEBU Nyakuri is believed to support the ruling party.


13. (C) MRC (Movement for the Rehabilitation of Citizens)
Rurenzangemero

- Registered in November 2002; predominantly Tutsi.

- It is believed that Epitace Bayaganakandi (who was Minister
of Interior during the height of the civil war and also
formerly Minister of Transportation) created the party to
represent Tutsis who are not from Burundi's southern
provinces, particularly Bururi province. Burundi's ruling
Tutsis have predominantly come from the southern provinces.
- In the 2005 elections, MRC won two seats in the National
Assembly. MRC has stated that it is "in the opposition" and
is promising to participate in the 2010 elections.


14. (U) PARENA (Party for National Recovery)

- Registered in August 1994; predominantly Tutsi.

- Founded by former President of Burundi Jean-Baptiste Bagaza.

- PARENA adopted a very low profile after performing poorly
in the 2005 elections. However, Bagaza has started to speak
out again.


15. (U) PTD-Twungurunani (Party of Workers and Democracy)

- Registered in April 2008; limited to union activists.

- PTD is just beginning to become active; its strength and
popularity are not yet known.


16. (U) RADEBU (Union of Democrats for Development in Burundi)

- Jean de Dieu Mutabazi, formerly a prominent member of
FRODEBU, created the RADEBU splinter party. The GoB
registered RADEBU in 2007. It has historically supported the
CNDD-FDD but has not been very active recently.

- Strength and popularity are not known.

Twining