BURUNDI -- VIEWS OF A DEPARTING AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000301


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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2019
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SUBJECT: BURUNDI -- VIEWS OF A DEPARTING AMBASSADOR

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia N. Moller for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).



1. (C) SUMMARY: After three years as Ambassador to
Burundi, I am convinced that this small, poverty-stricken,
conflict-ridden nation has the potential to fulfill its
promise as a durable African success story. Despite the
just-resolved 15-year civil conflict, lack of infrastructure,
deep-rooted corruption and the desperate need for broad-based
economic activity, Burundi has made measurable progress since
2005 national elections marked the end of fighting for all
but one rebel group. Burundi still has far to go to secure
its struggling democracy, institutionalize stability,
vanquish corruption, ameliorate poverty and provide to its
citizens health care, education, and human rights
protections. With considerable donor support, however, it
can continue to move forward.


2. (C) One of our most formidable tools for affecting GoB
decisions is the Embassy,s painstakingly established image
as a uniquely honest broker, untainted by a colonial past,
and willing to speak to all legitimate political actors. The
Embassy is singularly poised to influence the Burundian
government and encourage it to follow a democratic path.
Burundi,s location in the volatile and long-troubled Great
Lakes region bounded by Eastern Congo and Rwanda makes it
important that we use our influence to ensure stability in
the region. Regional integration will be crucial both in
securing peace and promoting economic development. If
Burundi can hold a credible election -- acceptably free,
fair, transparent and peaceful -- in 2010 and complete an
orderly installation of the newly-elected government, we will
have made a worthwhile investment in this still-fragile
democracy. END SUMMARY.

2010 Elections as Tipping Point
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3. (SBU) Burundi today may well be at a tipping point.
Although political manipulation, endemic corruption, human
rights violations and criminal impunity still plague this
poverty-stricken nation, the past three years have brought
considerable cumulative progress. If free, fair, transparent
and peaceful electoral processes, both in the run-up to 2010
national elections and their aftermath can be achieved, this
will materially solidify the progress made since 2005
polling. With continued significant international support,
successful elections will position Burundi for greater
democratic, economic and social gains. But should a fair
election process be, or be seen to be, hijacked by the ruling
CNDD-FDD party, a potential for renewed violence remains in
this country that has known too much of it. Further, if the
election is badly flawed, there is a risk that international
donors would decide that their scarce funds could be more
successfully deployed elsewhere. To ensure that Burundi
continues its forward momentum and contributes to greater
regional stability, it is in U.S. interests to continue to
cultivate our already-strong relationship with Bujumbura, and
build on recent GoB successes.

From Rebels to Peacekeepers: Successes...
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4. (C) Most significantly, the 15-year civil conflict
appears at last to have ended. The government and the
hold-out rebel FNL are in the final stages of implementing
their 2007 ceasefire agreement; disarmament, demobilization
and reintegration (DDR) are well underway. The government
has registered the erstwhile rebel group as a fully-fledged
political party and former combatants have begun to assume
governmental positions as provincial governors, ambassadors
and cabinet advisors. Further, it appears that even if the
criminal violence that sustained the FNL through its years in
the bush continue, organized ideology-based FNL combat is
genuinely over. Nevertheless, demobilized rebels -- or
"demobilisee" -- who have spent up to 15 years on the run in
the bush and who are consequently without education or
vocational skills -- will return to villages and towns
already virtually devoid of economic activity. There, they
will vie for survival with the more than 450,000 recently
repatriated refugees. These are the Burundians who,
beginning in 1972, fled to Tanzania to escape the violence in
Burundi. Making training and economic development
opportunities available to both refugee returnees and
demobilisee will be a key to sustaining the internal security
of the country by ensuring these groups have the means to
earn a peaceful living.


5. (C) Burundi has been our steadfast partner in pursuing
critical regional objectives. When in 2007 the U.S. sought
African troops to support AMISOM, the African Union's Mission
in Somalia, Burundi was one of only two states to pledge its
support and make good on that promise. With considerable
U.S. planning, training, financial and equipment support,
Burundi has to date supplied over 2500 troops who have risked
their lives in Mogadishu. Burundian soldiers performed well
when suicide bombers attacked their base in February 2009.
Despite rather desultory calls from some political party
leaders to bring Burundi's troops home, the President, fully
backed by the military commanders, refused to do so. The
Burundians are serious about developing their peacekeeping
skills and becoming long-term participants in peacekeeping
missions, particularly UN missions. Participation in PKOs
burnishes Burundi,s international credentials, provides
vital expertise to Burundi's military forces, and,
critically, provides a safety valve by furnishing legitimate
work for thousands of demobilized rebels who populate
Burundi's bloated military. Continued support will ensure a
willing and steady supply of increasingly-skilled
peacekeepers.


6. (SBU) Burundi has been an energetic and helpful partner
in the U.S.-facilitated Tripartite Plus meetings, which
successfully provided a forum for quarreling neighbors
Uganda, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi
to meet together under the aegis of U.S. engagement to
discuss regional security issues and develop shared plans to
address them. Further, Burundi has been a consistent and
reliable ally at the UN. In fact Burundi has been one of
Africa,s most supportive countries, generally endorsing U.S.
positions on issues such as Iran and some human rights
topics.

...and Mixed Results
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7. (C) A number of Burundi's success stories, however,
follow a two-steps-forward-one-step-back dance step. On
balance, the movement is forward, but the process of getting
there is often painful. A case in point is the dismissal
from the National Assembly in 2008 of 22 defectors from the
ruling CNDD-FDD. Although the decision to expel them was
constitutionally questionable to say the least, the expulsion
ended a yearlong legislative stalemate during which the 22
acted to obstruct any business whatsoever from going forward,
and the National Assembly is once more able to function. In
another instance, President Nkurunziza and the legislature
recently garnered widespread criticism for having included in
a revised penal code that otherwise had great merit and
attracted positive comment, a provision that criminalized
homosexual acts. Nkurunziza was likely trying to bolster his
evangelical credentials and position his CNDD-FDD party on
the moral high ground ahead of elections. But the 2009 Penal
Code containing the excoriated homosexuality criminalization
provision also criminalized torture, rape and trafficking in
persons, long goals of Burundi's active civil society as well
as of this Embassy.


8. (C) Additionally, after first attempting to appoint a
biased slate to serve as the ostensibly independent National
Election Commission (CENI),the government bowed to pressure
both from Burundi's Senate and from a vocal and outraged
international community to rename an independent Board. The
new CENI, which is responsible for preparing for and
conducting Burundi,s national elections, is now working to
revise the Electoral Code, recruit and train staff and begin
educating the media and civil society on their roles in the
upcoming polls. Strong and continued support for the CENI,
civil society, a free and independent media, transparent
processes and civic education will be crucial if Burundi is
to avoid potential -- but by no means inevitable --
election-related violence.

Continuing Challenges
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9. (C) Despite its embryonic stability, critical challenges
linger in this still-fragile state. Burundi remains one of
the poorest countries in the world, beset by poverty, poor
health and education systems, lacking basic infrastructure
and sustaining only minimal economic activity -- primarily
the subsistence agriculture on which 90 per cent of the
population depend. Per-capita income is only $138 per year.
The sad legacy of inter-ethnic slaughter has most recently
morphed into Hutu vs. Hutu conflict as factions vie for
political supremacy. The moribund Truth and Reconciliation
Commission, conceived to promote the healing process, is on
indeterminate hiatus pending election outcomes (there are
certainly those political leaders who hope that their former
careers as rebel leaders will never be examined too closely).
While Burundians appear to have put overt Hutu-Tutsi
struggles to the side for now, true reconciliation may take a
generation. The return of some 450,000 refugees who fled the
country,s repeated conflicts threatens stability by
exacerbating often deadly disputes over scarce land, and
greatly overburdens the country,s weak social services
network. Land disputes remain a crucial flash point in the
interior and our assistance projects dealing with land
registration must certainly continue. An underpaid, under
trained, rather brutal police force and lack of capacity and
transparency in the judicial system has meant that in large
part, perpetrators, even of serious crimes, are only rarely
prosecuted successfully.

Influencing the GoB
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10. (C) Burundians have a tendency to compare their current
economic and political condition to that of neighboring
Rwanda, deeming (and rightly) that Rwanda is far and away the
more advanced of the two. They credit Rwandan President
Kagame,s strong leadership and political savvy for the
disparity. Although President Nkurunziza has tried to
emulate Kagame with his declarations of compulsory Saturday
morning community service, free primary school, and free
health care for children under five and pregnant women, he
lacks the charismatic decisiveness and the informed political
vision that characterize for Burundians his Kigali
counterpart. A survivor of years on the lam in the bush,
Nkurunziza has a certain streetwise survivor's savvy, but he
has surrounded himself with a number of shadowy figures
widely purported to be manipulating events to keep the ruling
party in power. Their machinations are believed to include
extortion, intimidation and even murder. Whether Nkurunziza
himself is involved in illegal acts in unclear, but it
certainly is plausible that some of his closest advisors,
most particularly Security Services Chief Adolphe Nshirimana,
condone the use of violence to achieve their political
objectives. Nkurunziza appears not entirely in thrall to his
Security Service Chief, however. Rather surprisingly, the
President eagerly accepted our spring 2009 offer to have the
FBI assist in the investigation of the murder of a prominent
anti-corruption researcher -- a crime in which Nshirimana
himself may well be implicated. Whether the GOB will
cooperate fully in the FBI investigation as it uncovers more
inconvenient evidence, remains to be seen. Unsurprisingly,
security sector reform is particularly needed in Burundi.



11. (C) It has been possible for the international community
to influence the Nkurunziza government. After activist
journalist Alexis Sinduhije was detained on spurious charges
of plotting against the security of the state and insulting
the President, the diplomatic corps loudly expressed its
outrage both individually and jointly. Although it took six
months for the judicial wheels to grind, the outcome -- "not
guilty" -- was widely celebrated. Few in Burundi doubt the
positive outcome was directly influenced by the vigorous
diplomatic corps lobbying. Embassy Bujumbura has been most
effective in influencing GoB actions when our straightforward
message has described likely U.S. reaction to a contemplated
or completed course of action. With a few exceptions, we
have delivered these messages privately, forcefully and in
fairly blunt terms. Positioned as an honest broker willing
to engage all legitimate political actors, this Embassy has
unique credibility with the GoB and other opinion-makers.
Without the burden of colonial paternalism borne by some of
our European partners, and seen as advocates for peace,
security, democracy and the well being of the people of this
country, and bolstered by a burgeoning assistance budget, the
Embassy is uniquely poised to influence Burundi's political
class. Representational events at the CMR have proved
particularly useful in providing cover for the leaders of
ostensibly-feuding parties to meet, to discuss and to resolve
thorny issues. In fact, representational events have proven
one of our most effective techniques for pressing home U.S.
objectives.

Burundi,s Future Rests in Regional Integration...
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12. (C) Burundi,s future lies in regional integration,
particularly through its membership in the five-nation East
African Community (EAC). While many observers focus on the
economic implications of EAC membership, the political and
social impacts will be equally important. The increasing
prominence of regional issues may dilute the importance of
the remaining Hutu-Tutsi divide. EAC members Kenya, Rwanda
and Tanzania may be far less reluctant to exert their
influence if ill-considered GoB political decisions
negatively affect outside perceptions of -- and investments
into -- the shared region. Economically, despite Burundi,s
own lack of natural resources, its proximity to neighboring
DRC may well revive its role as a transit state, appealing to
EAC businessmen and women hoping to exploit the minerals in
that non-EAC state. A U.S. 2009 Treasury Department project
to help Burundi,s Central Bank establish a financial market
conforming to EAC standards is the kind of program that will
accelerate Burundi,s lagging integration progress.


13. (SBU) Regional integration may also provide interesting
opportunities for American businesses. With sufficient
infrastructure, there is considerable tourism potential in
this climate-blessed nation, centered primarily on Lake
Tanganyika where a few ambitious resorts have already begun
to take shape. For aquarium fanciers, Tanganyika also
supplies the largest and most diverse population of cichlid
species in the world. Although quality is inconsistent,
Burundi produces what is widely held to be some of the
highest quality specialty coffee in the world, and
privatization of the industry, albeit fitful, has begun.
High transport costs suggest that the fertile soils of
Burundi could profitably support an industry to export dried
herbs, spices and essential oils. Tea is another
well-developed industry that would benefit from foreign
interest and investment. Terrace farming -- scarcely seen
despite fierce competition for productive land in this
up-and-down mountainous countryside -- could provide some
long-term relief for farmers, although the expense and labor
to create them could prove prohibitive. The GoB has erected
few barriers to foreign investment, although tax structure,
corruption and government interference are burdensome for the
few foreign firms operating here.

Promoting Broad-Based Economic Development
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14. (SBU) The 15-year crisis took a heavy toll on Burundi's
economy. GNP dropped by half, foreign investment evaporated
and productive infrastructure was largely abandoned or
destroyed in the fighting. Burundi,s human capital,
including its entrepreneurs and intellectuals, fled to
Europe, North America and neighboring countries. To
recapture its pre-war status as a modestly successful
exporter of agricultural items such as coffee and tea, the
GoB needs to enact legislation that will assist private
sector recovery and adopt policies that will promote a more
competitive, less corrupt business environment. The Embassy
has teamed with the World Bank to encourage these types of
reforms. We have also noticed that the Diaspora has just
begun to invest in Burundi, which may help to create a more
favorable climate for home-grown entrepreneurs and persuade
them to establish themselves in Burundi rather than venture
abroad.


15. (SBU) Development of Burundi,s economic potential will
be neither an easy nor short-term undertaking. But given the
potential and reasonably productive natural resource base and
strategic location, and with the support of its international
partners, prospects are good that economic activity will
materially help stabilize the country in the medium term and
produce wealth and investment in the longer term. Burundi
will require continued engagement, encouragement and support
from its partners, including the U.S., to reach its potential
as a net contributor to EAC regional growth.


16. (SBU) One already-existing bright note: Burundi boasts
a flourishing, 450 -strong association of women entrepreneurs
(AFAB),who operate businesses as diverse as
producing/bottling carbonated fruit juice (supported by an
African Development Foundation grant),manufacturing
furniture and ceramics, and cooperating to establish
microfinance entities. The dynamic and energetic women of
AFAB serve as business models in Burundi, and the
organization should be a particularly good feeder group into
the joint U.S.-Dutch Business Incubator project coming on
line in late FY 2009. An embryonic handicraft collective
could also prove successful in boosting employment and
showcasing Burundian handwork. Again, the coffee, tea and
sugar industries may provide opportunities for American firms
and investors, particularly as, after significant U.S.
prodding, the GoB makes progress on privatization pledges.

Supporting a Vibrant Civil Society
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17. (C) Finally, continued U.S. advocacy for human and civil
rights will be crucial if Burundi,s fragile democracy is to
take firm root. Strong financial and moral support from the
U.S. and other donors has helped legitimize a vibrant civil
society, and brave leaders calling for a voice and influence
have challenged the GoB. Despite murder, harassment,
intimidation and imprisonment, some organizations have come
tantalizingly close to uncovering hard proof of corruption at
high levels of the government, giving these groups legitimacy
in the eyes of the general population. It has also given
them new influence over political and judicial processes.
The Presidency is consumed with establishing its own
legitimacy in the eyes of Burundians and the international
community on which it depends to finance much of its own
existence. International support in all forms is holding the
country together, and while it does so, we have a clear shot
at helping to shape the path Burundi chooses. While the GoB
chafes at some of the constraints imposed by the donor
community -- it particularly would like the UN mission to go
away -- the government recognizes that it must sometimes
compromise.


18. (C) When the compromises prove too onerous, Burundi
turns to less traditional donors, those who have a more
relaxed attitude regarding the human rights/good governance
strings that often accompany Western aid. Burundi has so far
successfully solicited assistance from Sudan and Libya, and
the Chinese are increasingly visible. The Chinese Embassy
recently staged a ground-breaking ceremony for a 100-bed
hospital, which included a promise of 30 Chinese healthcare
professionals to staff it. These ostensibly no-strings
projects understandably appeal to the GoB. We will need to
evaluate how to treat growing Chinese and other
non-traditional influence here.

In Conclusion
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19. (C) Burundi is a country with considerable potential.
It has been a privilege for me to serve here. If we continue
to help build and solidify the structures, institutions and
processes of a strong democracy, Burundi can become a stable
and durable success story. A free, responsible and
independent media, a strong and independent judiciary, a
professional police force that eschews impunity, a
legislature willing to challenge the ruling party, and a
vibrant civil society advocating for and protecting the
rights of Burundi's citizens should be our long-term vision.
Long-term broad-based economic and social development that
creates opportunity for employment and wealth generation are
possible here -- with time, determination, energy and luck --
and with a great deal of continuing, committed U.S.
engagement.


Wagner