Argentina: Keeping Score on the Pollsters

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000795

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AR
SUBJECT: Argentina: Keeping Score on the Pollsters

REF: Buenos Aires 0750


1. (SBU) Summary: Most Argentine polling firms did not foresee
former President Nestor Kirchner and his Victory Front (FpV) slate's
second-place finish in the June 28 election in Buenos Aires
province. Only four polling firms (Poliarquia, Giacobbe, Isonomia,
and Management and Fit) accurately predicted that the Pro Union, led
by Peronist dissident and multimillionaire Francisco de Narvaez,
would beat the FpV. The firms most off base in their projections --
giving Kirchner 5 to 8.5 points over de Narvaez -- were Analogias,
Ricardo Rouvier, Ibarometro, and Public Opinion Studies Center
(CEOP). Argentine media often report "polls" conducted by new,
unknown pollsters as if they had equal standing with more reliable
firms, making it difficult to sort out contradictory poll results.
In that vein, we regard recent efforts by "Noticias" to rank
pollsters as a positive step forward, and we offer this report card
to help assess future polls. End Summary.


2. (SBU) In the run-up to Argentina's June 28 midterm congressional
elections, the majority of polling firms put former President Nestor
Kirchner (NK) and the ruling Victory Front (FpV) slightly ahead of
political rival and first-place winner Francisco de Narvaez of the
Republican Proposal/Peronist dissident alliance, Union-PRO. A long
list of pollsters, including Ricardo Rouvier and Associates, Public
Opinion Studies Center (CEOP),Analogias, Ibarometro, and Equis,
were off the mark, predicting since May a victory for the FpV in the
key race of Buenos Aires province. Analogias (Analia del Franco),
Ricardo Rouvier, Ibarometro (Doris Capurro),and CEOP (Roberto
Bacman) were among the firms most off base in their projections,
each giving a margin of victory to the FpV ranging from 5 to 8.5
points. In the end, the Union-PRO slate came out ahead of the FpV
by a 2.47 point margin (34.58% to 32.11%) (reftel).


3. (SBU) Only four polling firms -- Poliarquia (hired exclusively by
paper-of-record "La Nacion"),Giacobbe, Isonomia, and Management and
Fit -- accurately predicted de Narvaez's first-place finish in
Buenos Aires Province. Poliarquia, led by Sergio Berensztein and
Fabian Perechodnik, was the first to do so, with the results that
"La Nacion" published June 7. Its June 21 poll also came closest in
predicting Union-PRO's eventual 2.5 percentage point margin of
victory. Isonomia's poll published June 26 anticipated Union-PRO's
results most accurately, saying it would win with 34.7% of the vote
with a two-point margin of victory over Nestor Kirchner's FpV
slate. These firms, however, underestimated by an average of six
points the results for the Radical Party and Civic Coalition
(UCR-CC) slate led by Margarita Stolbizer (whose electoral support
was also seriously underestimated by the polls in her 2007
gubernatorial bid). Ricardo Rouvier and Associates (often used by
the Casa Rosada was the closest to estimating the UCR-CC's actual
support. (In other respects, though, Rouvier was way off, for
example predicting Nestor Kirchner's slate would win by 5.7
points.)


4. (SBU) In its July 3rd edition, news magazine "Noticias" ranked
the overall performance of the country's ten leading pollsters in
predicting the electoral results. (Note: "Noticias" is owned by
Jorge Fontevecchia, who is anti-Kirchner and for this reason
receives no subsidies from the government, unlike most Argentine
media.) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the best possible
score, Management and Fit held the top position (8.9),followed by
Giacobbe (8.5),Authentic Opinion (8.1),Poliarquia (7.9),Isonomia
(7.9),Equis (6.2),CEOP (5.5),Ibarometro (4.5),Ricardo Rouvier
(4.2),and Analogias (3.5). The magazine ranked the pollsters by
comparing their projections with the actual results, and a double
penalty was given to predictions off by more than 5 points.


5. (SBU) A previous issue of "Noticias" alleged that the Kirchners
may have sought to manipulate the results of published polls. It
claimed the Casa Rosada paid polling firms 50,000 pesos (estimated
USD 13,133) for each poll and directed them to produce results for
publication that showed the FpV in the lead, with the intention of
shaping public opinion rather than measuring it. (Note: The FpV,
like its political party competitors, also commissioned surveys for
private consumption, which may have given the Kirchners a more
accurate picture of the electoral race.) The magazine claimed that
the Buenos Aires provincial government hired Analogias and owed the
firm 280,000 pesos (approximately USD 73,714); while Equis had a
contract with the Casa Rosada worth 585,000 pesos (approximately USD
154,015). Major pollster Manuel Mora y Araujo (Ipsos) privately
circulated results that differed significantly from what he
published. The Embassy saw an unpublished Ipsos poll that showed
Francisco de Narvaez ahead of Nestor Kirchner by five points; at the
same time, media were reporting that Ipsos gave Kirchner a
four-point lead. (Note: Ipsos has conducted multiple polls for the
State Department over the last decade.)


6. (SBU) In Buenos Aires City, the country's second largest
electoral district, all polling firms predicted that Republican
Proposal's slate (PRO) led by former City mayor Gabriela Michetti
would win by a larger margin than it ultimately received. Polling
firms Julio Aurelio (hired by the PRO),Poliarquia, Analogias, and
Ibarometro most accurately anticipated the City results, and were
the only ones to predict a strong second place showing for leftist
filmmaker Pino Solanas, who beat the UCR-CC's slate, surprising
Argentina's political class. Analogias, Ibarometro, and Poliarquia
were also the closest to estimating the final numbers for Pino,
Michetti, and Prat-Gay.

Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) Unlike in the United States, where the most widely reported
polls are those conducted by a few well-known, experienced,
reputable firms, often in conjunction with major media
organizations, in Argentina there has been a proliferation of
pollsters, some of them highly questionable fly-by-night ventures.
Argentine media often report "polls" conducted by new, unknown
pollsters with no discernible track record as if they had equal
standing with more reliable firms. In that regard, we view
"Noticias'" efforts to rank pollsters as a positive step forward.
Political surveys in Argentina are additionally challenging because
of the multiplicity of parties and candidates. To help Washington
readers assess future polls, we offer this report card on Argentine
pollsters but note that even pollsters who deciphered the support
for the top two tickets were not very accurate on the rest of the
line-up. Throughout this electoral season, polls portrayed the FpV
and the Union-PRO in a statistical dead heat when the margin of
error was taken into account -- and, indeed, the most closely
watched race of Buenos Aires province turned out to be very close.
Poliarquia, with its findings published June 7 in "La Nacion,"
deserves kudos for being the first major pollster to go public with
findings that favored de Narvaez over Nestor Kirchner. At the same
time, serious questions remain regarding the role of political
manipulation, flawed or tailored methodologies, or the
unpredictability of Argentina's electorate as key factors behind the
faulty predictions of some of the country's leading polling firms.

Kelly