ARGENTINE PRESIDENT CFK CALMLY SPINS ADVERSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000756

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2029
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINE PRESIDENT CFK CALMLY SPINS ADVERSE
ELECTION RESULTS; OPPOSITION DEMURS

REF: BUENOS AIRES 0750

Classified By: CDA Tom Kelly for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) Summary and introduction: Argentine president
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) addressed the nation
June 29 via live television to put the previous day's
election results in perspective. She sought to put the best
possible face on the electoral results, noting it was not
unusual for governments to suffer setbacks in legislative
mid-term elections after six years in power and arguing that
pro-government candidates won a greater share of the national
vote than any other political force. Starting off in a
somber tone but gradually warming up and ending with smiles,
CFK said she was not planning any cabinet changes.
Opposition candidates and political commentators panned her
remarks, saying that it showed CFK's lack of feel for the
Argentine electorate. For our part, we found CFK's calm,
dispassionate demeanor at the press conference a reassuring
sign that the GoA is taking the adverse electoral results in
stride, at least for now. End summary.

The Results According to Cristina
--------------


2. (U) In a rare press conference televised live June 29, CFK
sought to put a positive spin on the previous day's election
results (reftel). She opened by stressing that the elections
had been orderly and transparent, despite allegations
beforehand by the opposition that the government would
orchestrate widespread fraud. CFK congratulated everyone who
had participated in the elections, and "all of the victors."


3. (C) Although CFK acknowledged that the results in Buenos
Aires province (where her husband had led the Victory Front's
slate of candidates) had not been in the government's favor,
she pointed out that pro-government forces had won in 14
provinces, and that nationwide FpV-aligned groups won 31.03%,
more than any other political force. CFK said three major
blocs had emerged ("European-style"). She described the bloc
that had come in second place with a combined total of 29% of
the national vote as a loose alliance of the Civic Coalition,
the Radical Party (UCR),the Socialists, "Cobismo" (followers
of VP Cobos),and "Juezismo" (followers of former Cordoba
mayor Luis Juez, who won his senatorial bid). She noted the
center-right PRO party (which won in Buenos Aires province
and city) had 18.5% of the national vote, followed by several
smaller groupings.


4. (C) CFK asserted that before the election she had a
majority in the Senate, with 37 out of 72 seats, but not in
the Chamber of Deputies, where she had 155 (number must be
wrong; 155 is more than half of 257) out of 257 seats and
therefore relied on the support of another 22 allies to pass
legislation or muster quorum. As a result of the June 28
elections, she expected to have 35 seats in the Senate plus
the support of another four allies, giving her a working
majority. And in the Chamber, she expected to have 107 seats
plus the support of another 27 allies. She said she looked
forward to working with the legislative branch, noting that
congressional approval adds legitimacy to executive branch
initiatives. She acknowledged the need to negotiate to reach
agreements, and later, in response to a question, pointed out
that negotiations do not require parties to sacrifice
principles.


5. (C) In response to a question about whether the June 28
results should be interpreted as a 14-point decline in public
support for the government since the 2007 elections, CFK
noted it was not unusual for governments to suffer setbacks
in legislative mid-term elections after six years in power.
She pointed out that even in Buenos Aires province, her
husband's slate garnered a greater percentage (32.11%) than
did Mayor Macri's slate headed by Gabriela Michetti (31.09%)
in Buenos Aires city. Media had portrayed Michetti as a
winner, even though her 31% indicated a much sharper, quicker
drop in public support, since Macri-Michetti had won the city
government with 60% two years earlier (in the second round;
in the first round in 2007, Macri won 45% of the vote). CFK
also dismissed the idea that the election represented a turn
to the right, praising the effective campaign of independent
leftist candidate Pino Solanas, who took second in Buenos

Aires city with a late surge in support.

CFK: No More Cabinet Changes
--------------


6. (U) In response to a question about cabinet changes, CFK
noted that her cabinet chief had announced earlier that day
the replacement of Health Minister Graciela Ocana by Tucuman
Lt. Governor Juan Luis Manzur, but that she did not foresee
any other immediate personnel moves. Her husband, former
president Nestor Kirchner, had announced earlier in the day
his resignation as president of the Peronist Party (PJ),
requesting that PJ vice president Daniel Scioli, the governor
of Buenos Aires province who ran with Kirchner in the June 28
election, be allowed to take over as PJ leader. Scioli, in
turn, announced he will not take the seat he won in Congress,
but will continue to serve as governor. In what may presage
an attempt to develop a more independent image, Nestor
Kirchner's erstwhile running mate in Sunday's election
characterized the move as "my own decision," and said that he
had already reached out to several opposition figures,
including Macri, Elisa Carrio, and Francisco de Narvaez.

Opposition Criticizes CFK
--------------


7. (SBU) Opposition leaders criticized CFK's attempt to
downplay the government's defeat in the June 28 elections,
questioning what they saw as her refusal to acknowledge the
scale of the government's defeat and her failure to
contemplate any responsibility for the vote or brook any
criticism. Francisco de Narvaez, leader of the Union-PRO
slate that came in first ahead of Nestor Kirchner's slate in
Buenos Aires, said, "The government is autistic, removed from
reality." Elisa Carrio, head of the Civic and Social Accord
that includes her Civic Coalition, said CFK had created "an
abyss" between herself and the people, and predicted that if
this "abyss" got any deeper, there would be "a very serious
crisis of governability." Leftist filmmaker Pino Solanas,
whose ticket came in second in the city of Buenos Aires,
expressed discomfort with CFK's praise for him, denied any
possibility of an alliance with the government, and accused
CFK of "adulterating reality."


8. (SBU) Vice President Cobos, returning to the capital from
Mendoza, where his allies scored a major victory, said he was
willing to work with CFK to negotiate and build congressional
consensus to approve difficult legislation, such as the
budget or renewal of the Economic Emergency Law. In response
to CFK's criticism of him for his "unprecedented" role as a
vice president putting together a slate of opposition
candidates, Cobos said it was also "unprecedented" for a vice
president to be mistreated the way he had been by CFK and her
husband.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The opposition is certainly right to characterize
CFK's post-election analysis as a tendentious attempt to put
the best possible face on what was a clear, devastating
defeat. At the same time, CFK is hardly the only politician,
in Argentina or anywhere else for that matter, to try to spin
bad political news. From our perspective, the biggest news
from the press conference was that CFK had her act together,
and seemed to take the election result in stride. Starting
off in a somber tone but gradually warming up and ending with
smiles, CFK made a reasonable case for still being
politically relevant. While her husband and she are
undoubtedly still processing the election's meaning, CFK's
performance at the press conference suggests that, at least
in the short term, the Kirchners will not react to the
electorate's harsh verdict by intensifying Argentina's deep
political divisions.

KELLY