ARGENTINA: CAMPAIGNING K STYLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000655

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2039
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: CAMPAIGNING K STYLE

REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 0360 AND PREVIOUS

B. BUENOS AIRES 0561

C. BUENOS AIRES 0443

Classified By: DCM Kelly for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: With congressional midterm elections less
than a month away, campaign season is in full swing
throughout Argentina. In Buenos Aires province, the key
electoral district in the June 28 race, principal candidates
of the three main electoral forces -- the Kirchner-allied
ruling Victory Front (FpV),the Peronist dissidents backed by
Republican Proposal (PRO),and the Radical Party-Civic
Coalition (UCR-CC) alliance -- are busy traversing the
province in an effort to motivate the party faithful and win
over voters. This cable focuses on the FpV's campaign style
and will be followed by septel reports on the Peronist
dissident and UCR-CC campaigns. End Summary.


2. (SBU) President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's (CFK)
decision in mid-March to move up congressional elections by
four months to June 28 forced Argentine political parties
into over-drive (ref A). Parties met a May 9 deadline to
register candidates (ref B) and are now campaigning hard. On
May 14, the Kirchner-allied ruling Victory Front (FpV)
formally launched its campaign in the capital city of La
Plata in Buenos Aires (BA) province. From the stage of La
Plata's well-known theater, Argentina's former President,
current Peronist party (PJ) head Nestor Kirchner (NK)
announced his candidacy for national deputy in Buenos Aires
province before a crowd of 2,000, which included his wife,
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK). NK will lead
the FpV's slate in the province followed by Buenos Aires
province Governor Daniel Scioli.


3. (SBU) With an eye to winning the key electoral
battleground of BA province (ref C),NK has called on
Governor Scioli, Cabinet Chief Sergio Massa, and some 45
Kirchner-allied mayors to run for congressional or city
council seats, which they are not expected to fill, in order
to boost the FpV's electoral prospects. The press and
opposition have called such candidacies "symbolic candidates"
("candidatos testimoniales"). The Radical party (UCR) filed
in court on May 11 a legal challenge to the candidacies of
NK, Scioli, and Massa. As expected, Buenos Aires province
federal judge Manuel Blanco rejected on May 20 the UCR's
challenge, a ruling that was upheld by the National Electoral
Court on June 1. Local papers indicate that the opposition
will now take its case to the Supreme Court, but it is
unlikely the Court will address the issue prior to the
elections. Scioli, after initially publicly admitting that
he would not assume the national deputy seat if elected, has
since changed tactics, responding vaguely to press inquiries
and submitting a writ before the electoral court saying he
would "eventually" assume his seat. As to NK's plans, during
his first television interview as a candidate, the PJ
president had a one-word response to whether he would assume
the national deputy seat: "obviously."

Kirchner's Focus: Buenos Aires Province
--------------


4. (SBU) Since announcing his candidacy on May 9, NK has been
campaigning on a nearly daily basis in BA province, focusing
his efforts on Greater Buenos Aires, where 64% of the
province's voters reside. Over the past three weeks, the
FpV's leading candidate, accompanied by an entourage of local
candidates, advisers, and cameras, has visited nearly a dozen
key cities in the province's western, southern, and northern
districts.

Meet Nestor the Candidate
--------------


5. (C) In a much-noted effort to soften his aggressive image
in the run-up to the elections, NK has been seen visiting
voters in their homes, kissing babies, and strolling the
streets with a wide grin and waving. The strategy appears to
be working. An Embassy contact, whose firm has advised
Argentine opposition campaigns, notes that this is the first
time BA voters have the opportunity to see NK's campaign
style and explained that the relatively unknown NK was
elected president in 2003 after a short presidential race due
to Argentina's politically and financially turbulent times.
The consultant adds that, according to his firm's unpublished
late May polling, NK's approval rating has improved by six
points in the province over the last month as a result of his
extensive campaigning in the province. Nonetheless, in his
campaign rhetoric about the prospect of the FpV losing its
congressional majority, Nestor Kirchner alternates between
invoking gloom-and-doom scenarios and occasional bouts of
equanimity.


6. (SBU) Often at NK's side during these campaign stops are
the chief of Argentina's Intelligence Secretariat (SIDE),
Hector Icazuriaga, and NK's sister, Minister of Social
Development Alicia Kirchner. Icazuriaga, NK's former
vice-governor in Santa Cruz province and a close confidant of
NK, is well-known to many of the province's Kirchner-allied
FpV mayors. Icazuriaga often arrives a few minutes before
each event and accompanies NK in his door-to-door walks,
according to paper-of-record "La Nacion." Local press
reports assert that NK has used SIDE to smear his closest
opponent, Peronist dissident Francisco de Narvaez, by trying
to link him to ephedrine trafficking (septel). "La Nacion"
notes that Alicia Kirchner, along with a small team of
note-taking advisers, often accompanies NK to poor
neighborhoods to record citizens' complaints and to ensure
follow-up on their concerns.

FPV Message: Action Speaks Louder than Words...
-------------- --


7. (SBU) The FpV's campaign propaganda and its candidates
from NK to the town council level are sending the same simple
message: vote for the FpV and the GOA will continue to spend
locally on public works. Campaign propaganda asserts "we
defend what we have done in order to continue doing more,"
claiming to voters that it is the FpV that brought them
"jobs, hospitals, roads, potable water, (and) sewers." Local
observers point out that the Kirchners are well-known for
their penchant for announcing and re-announcing public works
projects, a trend which has increased during this campaign
season. In recent weeks, the government, often prior to,
after, or concurrent with a campaign act, has announced new
public works or initiatives, such as the construction of a
hospital, a new highway, a credit line for house purchases,
and credits for wheat producers. Although CFK has not
accompanied NK on the campaign trail, she has sought to
underscore the FpV's campaign message by traveling to Neuquen
and Misiones provinces and to the coastal city of Mar del
Plata in Buenos Aires province to announce key public works
and to tout the government's accomplishments. (Note:
Detractors argue that the Kirchners have announced some
projects a half-dozen times without results.)

But are Voters buying it?
--------------


8. (SBU) Official media campaigns began the week of May 25.
The FpV's prime-time ad, which made its debut the week of May
25, features various individuals holding signs which say
"before...there were no jobs...there was no money." The
silent ad concludes with "we do not speak because we take
action while others talk." Another ad boasts that the
Kirchner administration has built hundreds of new schools,
hospitals, and roads throughout the country. However, when
one asks the average BA voter if they have noticed such
infrastructure improvements, they say it must have all been
built in the Kirchners' hometown province of Santa Cruz.


9. (C) Poloff recently observed first-hand the FpV's public
works strategy in action during a visit to Avellaneda, an
industrial city in the "conurbano" bordering the Federal
Capital. Avellaneda's Mayor Baldomero Alvarez de Olivera
invited poloff to accompany him to a "town-hall" meeting with
retirees and pensioners. The Mayor is among some 45
Kirchner-allied mayors running in the June 28 elections as
symbolic town council candidates. For two hours, the Mayor
participated in a frank question-and-answer session with some
thirty retirees from his boyhood neighborhood on topics
ranging from trash pick-up and tree cutting to crime
concerns. At the end of the session, he asserted: "We want
to win on June 28, but if we lose, you can say goodbye to all
(these and future) public works."

Press Strategy: Keep Interviews Among Friends
--------------


10. (SBU) While highly distrustful of the press, both NK and
CFK have granted friendly interviews that have focused on the
government's achievements. NK has given three media
interviews since early May, one with Argentine television
station "Telefe" on May 8, and radio interviews on May 20 and
May 28. Meanwhile, CFK was interviewed on May 20 during the
premier of Argentine actress Soledad Silveyra's new program
on "Telefe" channel. During an Embassy reception last week,
local journalists referred to this interview as a sham and
complained that neither CFK nor NK grant interviews where
they do not control the message. NK continues to ignore
opposition calls for a televised debate.


11. (SBU) NK's softer candidate image is reinforced in the
highly popular television show "Gran Cunado" ("Big
Brother-in-law"). This political satire program, which will
run bi-weekly through the elections, parodies reality
television shows by impersonating Argentina's key political
leaders, including NK and CFK, who one by one are voted off
the show by viewers. The impersonation of NK is flattering,
presenting him as a friendly, approachable, yet somewhat
goofy candidate. The more positive impersonation of NK
stands in striking contrast to the imitation of
Vice-President Julio Cobos as a weak, timid, indecisive
leader caught in the moment of his tie-breaking vote against
CFK's bill to raise agricultural taxes. Embassy contacts
have noted that the top-rated show's more positive portrayal
of NK and others demonstrates the leverage they have over
show director Marcelo Tinelli.

A Harder Sell for the FpV in the Province's Interior
--------------


12. (SBU) Campaigning in the province's mostly rural interior
has been difficult for the FpV. As a result of the
protracted conflict with the farm sector, the FpV has lost
much of the interior's support which voted for CFK in the
2007 presidential race. In one highly-publicized incident,
farm sector supporters pelted BA Governor Scioli with eggs
while he campaigned in the province's interior. In response,
Scioli told the press that protestors would have to kill him
to keep him from working. According to press reports, Scioli
plans to brave the fields and campaign again this week in the
same district where he was pelted with eggs. NK referred to
the farm sector supporters involved in the incident as
"fascist gangs."


13. (SBU) The week before, NK himself was met with protests
from the farm sector when he delivered a campaign speech in
Chacabuco district. That same week, rural supporters in the
Coronel Suarez district manifested their disapproval of the
Mayor's alignment with the Kirchners by painting graffiti on
his house just a few hours before CFK's visit. "La Nacion"
reports that NK returned to the interior on June 2,
campaigning in Canuelas district, to demonstrate that the
presidential couple can travel freely to the province's rural
areas. Some provincial mayors, out of concern that the
Kirchners' low popularity may affect their own, have begun to
distance themselves from the Kirchners, preferring not to
invoke the Kirchner name in their campaign propaganda.
(Note: CFK's positive image nationwide is at 37% while NK's
is at 33%, according to May polling by IPSOS.)

Comment
--------------


14. (C) Although the Kirchners are focusing on BA province,
in particular the Greater Buenos Aires, so far, the polls
continue to show the race to be a statistical dead heat
between the FpV and its closest competitors, the Peronist
dissidents. But, in BA province if nowhere else, the
Kirchners seem to have the momentum. Contacts in the De
Narvaez-Macri-Sola camp have started to tell us that they
expect to lose by a few percentage points. For two decades,
the PJ has dominated provincial politics, and despite the
party's current divisions, NK, as PJ President still controls
the party and its local network. As a result, the Peronist
dissidents still have an uphill battle if they hope to come
out ahead in this key electoral battleground, where even
local observers are hesitant to call this close race.

WAYNE