FUND INDUSTRY SURVIVING ECONOMIC CRISIS, BUT MAY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000564

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE, INR/EC, TREASURY FOR ERIC MEYER,
JEFF BAKER, LARRY NORTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON EU HU
SUBJECT: FUND INDUSTRY SURVIVING ECONOMIC CRISIS, BUT MAY
FACE DEATH BY EURO

REF: BUDAPEST 477


1. (SBU) Summary. 2008 was the worst year on record for the
Hungarian investment fund industry, with capital flight and
declining yields resulting in a decrease in total assets of
Hungarian funds of over 20 percent. Real estate and money
market funds were particularly hard hit. A run on Hungarian
real estate funds beginning in October 2008 resulted in the
Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority suspending real
estate fund redemptions for 10 days, and subsequently
requiring several funds to restructure into close-ended
funds. Although capital flight has slowed and the industry
is fairly optimistic about attracting new capital, Hungarian
funds continue to compete with banks offering high short-term
interest rates. A major concern for the fund industry is
Hungary's adoption of the Euro and the continued integration
of the European fund market. Domestic fund companies fear
that once Hungary adopts the Euro, there will be little to
differentiate them from larger European fund companies, and
local providers will devolve into sales offices for
pan-European funds. Seeing the writing on the wall, fund
industry executives hope that Budapest can become a "regional
hub" for fund activity, and are urging the government to be
forward looking in developing a new Investment Fund Act that
could help attract regional fund management or back-office
operations. End summary.

2008: WORST YEAR ON RECORD


2. (U) 2008 was the worst year on record for the Hungarian
investment fund industry, resulting in a one-year decrease in
total assets of Hungarian funds of over 20 percent
(approximately HUF 563 billion, or USD 3 billion),with real
estate and money market funds particularly hard hit. All
categories of open-ended publicly offered funds investing in
securities suffered huge redemptions, resulting in a decline
of assets for all fund categories except for guaranteed
funds.


3. (U) Although negative fund performance and increased
volatility caused investors to begin withdrawing from
investment funds early in 2008, an unprecedented wave of
withdrawals came in late October after the GOH introduced
guarantees for bank deposits, and the National Bank's 300
basis point increase in the base rate caused bank deposit
rates to shoot up. Real estate funds were particularly hard
hit by the wave of redemptions, and despite the funds' large
liquidity cushions, in November 2008, the Financial
Supervisory Authority (HFSA) was forced to step in and
suspend redemptions of real estate funds for 10 days and to
lengthen the redemption period for funds from around 3 days
to up to 90 days (reftel).

OUT OF THE FRYING PAN...


4. (U) In recent months, rising yields and improved market
sentiment have slowed the pace of withdrawals from domestic
funds. In June, an estimated HUF 20 billion (approximately
USD 100 million) was withdrawn, bringing the total
redemptions for the first half of 2009 to HUF 158 billion
(approximately USD 800 million). Despite the continued high
level of redemptions, Andras Temmel, Secretary General of the
Association of Hungarian Investment Fund and Asset Management
Companies (BAMOSZ) believes that "the worst is over" and that
as the economic climate in Hungary continues to improve,
investors will begin to return. He also notes that declining
interest rates for bank deposits will continue to make
investment funds more attractive for retail investors. He
predicts the funds likely to recover most quickly include
commodity-based, derivative, and institutional funds.
Despite heavy losses to the Hungarian fund market, Temmel
points out that Hungarian fund industry losses (including
withdrawals and declining asset values) have been lower than
the average fund market in the EU.

...AND INTO THE FIRE


5. (SBU) BAMOSZ is not particularly optimistic about the
future of the Hungarian domestic fund market, however.
BAMOSZ Analyst Miklos Farkas notes that the domestic fund
industry survives today by being able to offer HUF
denominated funds to the generally risk-averse Hungarian
retail investor. (Biographical Note: Miklos Farkas is the
son of Istvan Farkas, the recently resigned president of the
Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority - see reftel. End
biographical note). Once Hungary adopts the Euro, and once

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the EU investment fund market is more integrated, Farkas
believes that there will be little left to differentiate
Hungarian investment fund companies from larger European
funds. As a result, pan-European funds may come to dominate
the Hungarian market, leaving behind only a domestic sales
office.


6. (SBU) Temmel believes that one way the Hungarian fund
industry could survive these impending changes is for Hungary
to become a "Central and Eastern European regional hub" for
fund activity, possibly including fund management or
back-office operations. To do so, however, BAMOSZ believes
Hungary would need to further develop its legislation to make
it an attractive location for investment fund and asset
management companies. For example, according to BAMOSZ,
Hungarian legislation should include provisions for fund
types not currently available in Hungary, like umbrella
funds, and should change fund distribution rules for fund
companies to create a more flexible legal and regulatory
environment. BAMOSZ has provided input to the Ministry of
Finance on developing a new Investment Fund Act, and believes
the current government and the Ministry of Finance understand
the issues and support the domestic industry.

COMMENT


7. (SBU) Other than a favorable legal environment, it is
unclear what Hungary's relatively small market (comprised of
about 400 funds managing approximately USD 13 billion) has to
offer as a regional hub for investment fund companies. With
the Finance Ministry preoccupied with crisis management and
preparation of the 2010 budget, it is unlikely that a new
Investment Fund Act will be enacted in the near term.
Although BAMOSZ may have grounds for concern about the impact
of eurozone membership on the Hungarian fund industry, the
several years (or more) until Hungary meets the conditions
necessary to adopt the Euro may give the industry time to
adjust its business model. End comment.
LEVINE