EU LEADERS AGREE ON GUARANTEES FOR IRELAND; NEW IRISH VOTE

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 000856

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/ERA and L/EUR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI

SUBJECT: EU LEADERS AGREE ON GUARANTEES FOR IRELAND; NEW IRISH VOTE
ON LISBON TREATY EXPECTED FOR OCTOBER

1. SUMMARY: EU leaders in their June 18-19 European Council meeting
painfully agreed on the format of guarantees designed to persuade
Irish voters to back the Lisbon Treaty in another referendum. The

specific guarantees do not alter the Lisbon Treaty but provide
interpretation of it. They basically assure the Irish that nothing
in the new treaty will affect the country's legal provisions on
ethical and family matters, its ability to determine its own tax
regime, or affect Ireland's traditional policy of military
neutrality. The deal on the Irish guarantees enables PM Cowen to
proceed with plans for a new referendum expected to be held in early
October. END SUMMARY.

2. EU leaders in their European Council conclusions reaffirmed
their wish to see the Treaty of Lisbon enter into force by the end
of 2009. Following on their December 2008 meeting, which had noted
that concerns of the Irish caused a "No" vote in the June 2008
referendum, the leaders signed off on a series of guarantees as part
of an overall package designed to persuade Irish citizens to express
a positive vote on the treaty in a second referendum. The leaders
recalled their December 2008 decision to the effect that, QUOTE
Provided that the Treaty of Lisbon enters into force, the Commission
shall continue to include one national of each member state. END
QUOTE

3. The other concerns of the Irish people relating to taxation, the
right to life/abortion, education and family life, and Ireland's
policy of military neutrality were dealt with in a package of legal
and political texts negotiated among EU Member State governments
over the past few weeks. While the substance of such guarantees
decided in principle by the leaders in December 2008 was not really
controversial, their legal format proved somewhat difficult to
determine. Ireland pushed for legal assurances to be attached as
protocols to a future EU treaty, thus enshrining them in EU primary
law. However, some countries, led by the UK, feared this involved
the risk of reopening a domestic debate on ratification of the
Lisbon reforms.

4. Speaking at the final press conference with Commission President
Barroso on June 19, Czech PM Jan Fischer stressed that the texts
accepted by Ireland and the other Member States should be taken as
"exploratory and clarifying texts" that change "not a dot nor a
comma to the Lisbon Treaty." The package annexed to the European
Council conclusions consists of:
-- A Decision of the Council (a legally-binding document) that is
intended to cover Irish concerns on ethical, family/education
issues, taxation and security and defense. In essence, the Decision
applying to all Member States basically reaffirms national
prerogatives. Effective on the date of the entry into force of the
Lisbon Treaty, they will enable the Irish government to withstand
any domestic challenge that the new treaty might force the country
to change its policies and legislation in the areas concerned.
-- A "Solemn Declaration of the European Council on Workers' Rights
and Social Policy" (not legally binding),reaffirming "the high
importance" attached by the EU to social progress and the protection
of workers' rights, public services as an instrument of social and
regional cohesion, the responsibility of Member States for the
delivery of education and health services, and the discretion of
national, regional and local authorities in providing, commissioning
and organizing services of et.
-- A "national declara Treaty of Lisbon followote in the
new referendum, this declaration would b associated with Ireland's
instrument of ratiication.

5. A final sticking point that delaQed the leaders' agreement on
the package unti, June 19 was the question of whether the guarantees
provided by way of the Council Decision would, in time, acquire full
treaty status by way of a treaty protocol. The Irish recognized
that such a protocol could not be adopted before the Lisbon Treaty
comes into force. They insisted, however, on a "clear and
unequivocal commitment that, at a future point after the Lisbon
Treaty enters into force, the legal guarantees contained in the
decision" would be "attached to the EU treaties by way of a
protocol." Agreement on the shape of the deal followed an early
morning meeting between Taoiseach Brian Cowen and UK PM Gordon
Brown, at which the latter indicated that the UK would no longer
stand in the way of a reference to a future protocol.

6. While reaffirming that the content of the Decision will not
necessitate any re-ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon, the leaders
stated that they will "at the time of the conclusion of the next
accession treaty, set out the provisions" of the Decision in a
protocol to be attached, in accordance with their respective
constitutional requirements, to the Treaty on European Union and the
Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (read: the consolidated EU
treaties as they will appear following the entry into force of the
Lisbon Treaty).

7. Irish PM Brian Cowen told reporters: "I am confident now that
we have a solid basis to go to the Irish people and ask them again
to ratify the treaty so that Europe can move on. I expect that we
would be ready to have a referendum in early October." President
Barroso opined that the package "gives Irish people all assurances
they need." Barroso said he was very confident about the outcome of
a new referendum "because the Irish government now has got
everything it asked for" to be in "the best possible conditions to
explain the exact contents of the Lisbon Treaty."

8. COMMENT. The deal on the Irish guarantees is a big relief for
PM Cowen. It proved difficult to achieve, but was apparently
reached without acrimony (Cowen openly praised Brown for his
cooperation). The Taoiseach had candidly exposed his
vulnerability on Summit's eve in a letter to fellow EU leaders,
which was widely leaked to media. In the message, Cowen strongly
underlined the necessity of being able to invoke a Treaty protocol
in addition to any legally-binding Decision of the Council to
provide him with greater legal certainty. Whether intended or not,
the leak revealed how the Irish felt it necessary to take
precautions to go back to voters and call another referendum that
will soon determine the fate of long-awaited EU Treaty reforms.

MURRAY