FLEMISH POLITICAL INSIDERS' ON REGIONAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000813

SIPDIS

STATE PASS EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: FLEMISH POLITICAL INSIDERS' ON REGIONAL ELECTIONS

Classified By: POL/ECON Counselor Richard M. Eason for reasons 1.4 (B)
& (D)


1. (C) Summary: In the aftermath of the June 7 Flemish
regional elections, Poloff and Polintern met with members of
the four political parties that are likely to participate in
the next Flemish regional government. The Flemish
Christian-Democrats (CD&V) and current Minister-President
Kris Peeters will have the lead in forming either a three- or
four-party coalition, likely to include the Flemish
nationalist N-VA and either one or both of the Flemish
socialist or liberal parties. The CD&V views a four party
coalition as more stable, but more challenging in reaching a
coalition agreement. The main issues facing the next Flemish
government are: state reform and the economic crisis. State
reform is extremely important to both the CD&V and N-VA who
did surprisingly well on June 7 and see the results as
confirmation that Flemish voters demand state reform. This
issue, which would result in more autonomy for Flanders, has
been the key domestic political challenge in Belgium for some
time. The Flemish government will pursue state reform, and a
compromise must be found at the national level. If not, the
CD&V predicts that the Flemish parties will finally allow the
Belgian government to fall. End Summary.

Introduction
--------------


2. (C) Poloff and Polintern met June 11 with party insiders
to elicit their internal view of the June 7 Flemish regional
elections. We met with Foreign Affairs Advisor Peter Gijsels
of the Flemish Christian Democrats (CD&V),which won 23
percent of the vote; Flemish MP Helga Stevens of the New
Flemish Alliance (N-VA),which won 13 percent of the vote
compared to six percent in 2004; Flemish Socialist (sp.a)
Vice President Dirk Van der Maelen whose party received 15
percent of the vote, a drop of almost five percent from 2004;
and the Foreign Affairs Advisor at the Flemish Liberal
(OpenVLD) think tank Filip Buntinx, whose party dropped 4.8
percent to 15.1 percent. The radical right Vlaams Belang
fell 8.8 percent to 15.4, and will not be considered as a
coalition partner by the other parties, due to their long
standing cordon sanitaire agreement. The main challenge of
forming a coalition falls on the CD&V, who can bring together
either a four-party coalition that includes N-VA, sp.a, and
OpenVLD, or a three-party coalition with two of the three
(N-VA, sp.a, or OpenVLD). The different party constellations
could effect the overall Flemish government program, its
stability, and the national government.

Possible Coalitions
--------------


3. (C) As the leading party, CD&V controls the negotiations
for forming a governing coalition and wants to create a
stable government that will last the five-year term under
current Flemish Minister-President Kris Peeters. Gijsels
said the CD&V prefers a four party coalition because it would
prevent any one party from toppling the government by
threatening to leave; they could continue with a smaller
majority of the remaining three parties. He said it was
almost inevitable the N-VA would be part of the next
government, and added that its strong performance was a
signal sent by the Flemish voters that its commitment to
state reform had substantial appeal. The question for the
CD&V is whether the N-VA would be a reliable partner,
considering N-VA's willingness to break the CD&V - N-VA
electoral alliance in July 2008 in the national parliament
over failed state reform. The four-party solution might
neutralize this concern. He admitted a four-party government
would require skillful and delicate compromise in the
governing agreement. Gijsels said his party was concerned
about holding both the federal prime ministership and the
regional minister-presidency; the two governmentshave
different priorities, and its hard to saywhich is more
important to the Flemish electorate.


4. (C) N-VA's Stevens said her party wanted to be part of
government depending on the platform that could be worked
out. She said her party was willing to work with the others,
but was particularly hopeful OpenVLD would be part of the
next government as the two parties share many economic
platform views. Van der Maelen said a four-party coalition
would be best because the larger grouping would dilute N-VA's
influence, but noted sp.a's own influence would be diluted as
the only leftist party in the coalition. He then said his
party is split between those who want to go into opposition
at the local level and rebuild after their seeming punishment

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by voters at the polls and those who wish to govern. Van der
Maelen also noted the wavering of the Liberals on whether or
not to join. Buntinx said the OpenVLD would prefer a
three-party coalition with N-VA, and without the Socialists.
A coalition without sp.a would be more pragmatic, and mirror
the national coalition that does not include sp.a.

Two Real Issues: the Economy and State Reform
--------------


5. (C) Both Gijsels and Stevens focused on the two primary
issues that confront the next Flemish government: state
reform and the economic crisis facing Flanders (and Belgium).
On the economic side, Gijsels called the budget a nationwide
problem. His party is concerned with socio-economic issues,
and noted a tension between the relatively wealthy Flanders
and the insolvent national government. Regardless of the
coalition, this would be a major issue. Stevens also listed
tackling the economic problems as a primary issue for the
N-VA. N-VA wants to push for a more efficient Flemish
government, a reduction in personnel, and an elimination of
provincial governments. Her party remains concerned with
protecting the Flemish child and hospital allowance. N-VA
supported Kris Peeters' refusal to return EUR 100 million to
the federal government under the previous Flemish government,
and is quite willing to do so again. Gijsels considered that
the budget offered a great opportunity for compromise at the
federal level on the second major issue facing the next
Flemish government: state reform.


6. (C) Gijsels said that his party and Flemish M-P Kris
Peeters were committed to advancing a program of state
institutional reform that provides Flanders with greater
autonomy. Poloff noted that both former CD&V PM Yves Leterme
and Kris Peeters failed to find a compromise that would
satisfy the Francophone parties. Gijsels said the
better-than-expected performance of both CD&V and N-VA was a
sign that Flemish voters want state reform; the parties
received credit for working hard, even if they did not
accomplish their goals. He said all Flemish parties signed
on to the 1999 resolutions on state reform, and the next
Flemish government would push them forward. Stevens
underscored N-VA's great expectations on state reform; as a
Flemish nationalist party, N-VA views a stronger Flanders as
a step towards an independent Flanders. Van der Maelen said
the sp.a signed on to the resolutions, but hoped the issues
would fade away; he credited N-VA leader Bart De Wever for
keeping the issue alive. Sp.a is quite concerned with social
programming for all Belgians, and is close to its far
stronger counterpart in Wallonia; sp.a supports transfers to
the poorer Walloon region that are often provided as reasons
to divide Belgium by Flemish nationalists. Buntinx said the
OpenVLD did indeed support the resolutions, but noted they
were quite vague, and N-VA has used the principles to
recommend more concrete proposals.

The Flemish Government's Need for a Compromise
-------------- -


7. (C) Gijsels argued that a compromise had to found on state
reform to prevent a collapse of the national government and
to deal with Belgium's economic problems. He said the
Francophone parties must be made to understand that real
progress on state reform must happen, but admitted they had
no inherent political interest in increasing Flemish
autonomy. Gijsels offered a very sobering prediction that
the federal government could fall in the short term if good
faith discussions on state reform did not move forward soon.
The serious complication is the division of the
Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde voting district that allows
Francophones living in the Flemish suburbs of Brussels to
vote for Francophone parties in Brussels, rather than parties
in the Flemish province of Vlaams Brabant where they reside.
All Flemish parties voted in Federal Parliament in 2007 to
separate the Vlaams Brabant suburbs from Brussels. Gijsels
said it had been the first time there had been a straight
Flemish - Francophone vote. The measure passed, but was
blocked from going into effect by the Francophone community's
use of the "conflict of interest" procedure. The review of
the law should be complete by October, and will return to the
Federal Parliament. Gijsels said another Flemish -
Francophone vote would send the measure to the government,
where Flemings and Francophones hold an equal number of votes
in the Council of Ministers. Gijsels predicted the Flemish
parties would sooner withdraw from government than lose on
the B-H-V issue. Gijsels said the CD&V would look for a
compromise to prevent this collapse.


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Comment
--------------


8. (C) The Flemish government under the CD&V's Kris Peeters
and his likely coalition partner Bart De Wever of N-VA has
been given a strong hand to advance state reform. The
economic crisis is also a serious problem for the two
parties, their possible coalition partners, and for the
Belgian federal government. Now more than ever, it is clear
the Flemish majority expects greater autonomy for Flanders.
Belgium's politicians have skillfully found compromises in
the past, often with the Flemish taking the lead in making
concessions. In this case, the Francophones will have to
find a way to make concessions soon to keep Belgium together.
They cannot continue to say Flemish extremism is to blame.
Without a compromise giving Flanders greater autonomy,
Belgium's government will fall and the next one will be even
harder to form.

BUSH
.