Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BRUSSELS669
2009-05-11 15:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:
A MONTH TO THE FLEMISH REGIONAL ELECTIONS: STATUS
how-toVZCZCXRO1336 PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHBS #0669/01 1311553 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 111553Z MAY 09 FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8931 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000669
SIPDIS
STATE PASS EUR/WE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: A MONTH TO THE FLEMISH REGIONAL ELECTIONS: STATUS
QUO OR A RISE OF THE RIGHT
REF: BRUSSELS 551
Classified By: Political Economic Counselor Richard Eason for reasons 1
.4 B & D.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000669
SIPDIS
STATE PASS EUR/WE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: A MONTH TO THE FLEMISH REGIONAL ELECTIONS: STATUS
QUO OR A RISE OF THE RIGHT
REF: BRUSSELS 551
Classified By: Political Economic Counselor Richard Eason for reasons 1
.4 B & D.
1. (C) Summary: The Flemish regional elections will be held
on June 7, along with the European Parliament Elections.
Though PM Van Rompuy has said regional elections do not
affect the federal government, all major national political
decisions have been put on hold until after the regional
elections. It is unclear which party will be the front
runner on June 7, but the most likely outcome is another
Christian Democrat (CD&V),Liberal (OpenVLD),and Socialist
(sp.a) regional government headed by current OpenVLD Flemish
Minister-President Kris Peeters. If it performs well, the
pro-Flemish independence New Flemish Alliance (NVA) could
join the coalition. The third possibility is a center-right
coalition: CD&V, OpenVLD, NVA, and the newer center-right
Lijst DeDecker (LDD). LDD is competing in the regional
elections for the first time, and is the major wild-card in
the race. Regional election results often send a signal to
the federal government on its level of support and possibly
foreshadow the next federal election. If a status quo
Flemish government forms after June 7, there is likely to be
minimal impact at the national level where the CD&V and
OpenVLD represent Flanders. If other parties perform very
well, a reconfiguration of ministries at the national level
or even early elections could be coming. End Summary.
Introduction
--------------
2. (U) The Flemish regional elections on June 7 will
determine the proportion of the 124 seats received by each of
the Flemish parties in the Flemish Parliament. The current
Flemish government is led by the CD&V and Minister-President
Kris Peeters in coalition with OpenVLD and sp.a These three
parties currently hold a majority of sixty-two percent of the
seats, allotted after the 2004 regional election. This is
not equivalent to the federal parliament, where the sp.a is
not part of the government and the CD&V and OpenVLD are the
only Flemish parties in the majority.
Recent Polls and LDD
--------------
3. (U) March polls show a weakening of the three major
parties and the possibility that LDD or other third parties
could do quite well. Polls taken by the Flemish Daily the
Standaard and francophone La Libre Belgique in March found
the following level of support for Flemish parties:
PARTY DE STANDAARD LA LIBRE BELGIQUE
CD&V 20.5 21.9
OpenVLD 19.3 16.3
sp.a 14.4 13.7
LDD 11.8 16.6
NVA 10.1 6.5
Groen (Greens) 7.3 6.6
Possible Configurations
--------------
4. (C) Depending on the June 7 results, the current three
party CD&V-OpenVLD-sp.a coalition is likely to renegotiate a
slim to stable majority (51 percent to 55 percent). Another
possibility is the traditional three plus a smaller party,
with NVA the most likely candidate, due to its previous
electoral cooperation with the CD&V. (Note: CD&V and NVA
participated in an electoral CD&V-NVA cartel in the 2004
regional and 2007 national elections, before NVA withdrew on
July 15, 2008 over a failure to achieve state reform at the
federal level. End Note.) A center-right coalition of
CD&V-OpenVLD-LDD-NVA is another possible configuration; a
center-right variation of CD&V-OpenVLD-NVA could work if the
two larger parties scored above twenty percent and NVA were
to receive eight to ten percent.
Socialist Indecision and OpenVLD-LDD Histrionics
-------------- ---
5. (C) The task of negotiating a majority, most likely led by
the CD&V, is complicated by two key uncertainties: sp.a
indecision and the intense rivalry between OpenVLD and LDD, a
rivalry heating up at the moment. The party leaders of sp.a
are not committed to participating in regional government;
BRUSSELS 00000669 002 OF 002
many of the more radical members would like to go into
opposition at the regional level as they have done at the
federal level and retool the party's message (reftel). A May
8 discussion between Pol-Econ Couns and sp.a Senator Marleen
Temmerman confirmed this discussion was ongoing. The
pragmatic Temmerman thought going into opposition at the
national level was the wrong decision, but hinted that many
in her party prefer opposition at both levels of government.
6. (C) The OpenVLD and LDD have been attacking each other
aggressively in the media, with federal Deputy PM and FM De
Gucht saying the OpenVLD would not join a government with
LDD. The press acrimony between the OpenVLD leadership and
LDD leader Jean-Marie Dedecker is particularly tense because
Dedecker left the OpenVLD several years ago to begin his own
rival party that has drawn many OpenVLD politicians and
voters. The histrionics between the two parties rose to a
new level in late April and early May. Dedecker hired a
private investigator who was discovered following OpenVLD
leaders looking for scandal. The Flemish press the week of
May 4 focused on the back bench party switcher Dirk Vijnk who
left LDD for OpenVLD, only to return to LDD. OpenVLD party
leader Bart Somers was forced to publicly apologize for
writing a letter promising Vijnk a seat in parliament through
2015 if he left LDD for good. Though these two parties seem
to have a particularly strong rivalry prior to the election,
they could decide that cooperating after June 7 is
politically expedient.
Comment--Regional Elections and the Federal Government
-------------- --------------
7. (C) Though PM Van Rompuy has said regional elections are
purely regional affairs, the election could deliver a
critique of the national government where the CD&V and
OpenVLD represent Flanders alone. If those two parties do
well, they can likely continue at the national level with
their ministerial portfolios intact. If the Socialists do
very well at the regional level, their fortunes turning,
perhaps they may be inclined to remain part of the status quo
regional majority, and even consider asking to rejoin the
federal coalition. If LDD or NVA do well, and a center right
coalition forms, then it is unlikely the francophone parties
would agree to a national coalition with what many
francophones consider radical Flemish parties. There is
always the chance that a weak showing by the CD&V and OpenVLD
could indicate a lack of confidence in the national
government and force new national elections, but few party
leaders and fewer Belgians are interested in another long
period without a federal government.
.
SIPDIS
STATE PASS EUR/WE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: A MONTH TO THE FLEMISH REGIONAL ELECTIONS: STATUS
QUO OR A RISE OF THE RIGHT
REF: BRUSSELS 551
Classified By: Political Economic Counselor Richard Eason for reasons 1
.4 B & D.
1. (C) Summary: The Flemish regional elections will be held
on June 7, along with the European Parliament Elections.
Though PM Van Rompuy has said regional elections do not
affect the federal government, all major national political
decisions have been put on hold until after the regional
elections. It is unclear which party will be the front
runner on June 7, but the most likely outcome is another
Christian Democrat (CD&V),Liberal (OpenVLD),and Socialist
(sp.a) regional government headed by current OpenVLD Flemish
Minister-President Kris Peeters. If it performs well, the
pro-Flemish independence New Flemish Alliance (NVA) could
join the coalition. The third possibility is a center-right
coalition: CD&V, OpenVLD, NVA, and the newer center-right
Lijst DeDecker (LDD). LDD is competing in the regional
elections for the first time, and is the major wild-card in
the race. Regional election results often send a signal to
the federal government on its level of support and possibly
foreshadow the next federal election. If a status quo
Flemish government forms after June 7, there is likely to be
minimal impact at the national level where the CD&V and
OpenVLD represent Flanders. If other parties perform very
well, a reconfiguration of ministries at the national level
or even early elections could be coming. End Summary.
Introduction
--------------
2. (U) The Flemish regional elections on June 7 will
determine the proportion of the 124 seats received by each of
the Flemish parties in the Flemish Parliament. The current
Flemish government is led by the CD&V and Minister-President
Kris Peeters in coalition with OpenVLD and sp.a These three
parties currently hold a majority of sixty-two percent of the
seats, allotted after the 2004 regional election. This is
not equivalent to the federal parliament, where the sp.a is
not part of the government and the CD&V and OpenVLD are the
only Flemish parties in the majority.
Recent Polls and LDD
--------------
3. (U) March polls show a weakening of the three major
parties and the possibility that LDD or other third parties
could do quite well. Polls taken by the Flemish Daily the
Standaard and francophone La Libre Belgique in March found
the following level of support for Flemish parties:
PARTY DE STANDAARD LA LIBRE BELGIQUE
CD&V 20.5 21.9
OpenVLD 19.3 16.3
sp.a 14.4 13.7
LDD 11.8 16.6
NVA 10.1 6.5
Groen (Greens) 7.3 6.6
Possible Configurations
--------------
4. (C) Depending on the June 7 results, the current three
party CD&V-OpenVLD-sp.a coalition is likely to renegotiate a
slim to stable majority (51 percent to 55 percent). Another
possibility is the traditional three plus a smaller party,
with NVA the most likely candidate, due to its previous
electoral cooperation with the CD&V. (Note: CD&V and NVA
participated in an electoral CD&V-NVA cartel in the 2004
regional and 2007 national elections, before NVA withdrew on
July 15, 2008 over a failure to achieve state reform at the
federal level. End Note.) A center-right coalition of
CD&V-OpenVLD-LDD-NVA is another possible configuration; a
center-right variation of CD&V-OpenVLD-NVA could work if the
two larger parties scored above twenty percent and NVA were
to receive eight to ten percent.
Socialist Indecision and OpenVLD-LDD Histrionics
-------------- ---
5. (C) The task of negotiating a majority, most likely led by
the CD&V, is complicated by two key uncertainties: sp.a
indecision and the intense rivalry between OpenVLD and LDD, a
rivalry heating up at the moment. The party leaders of sp.a
are not committed to participating in regional government;
BRUSSELS 00000669 002 OF 002
many of the more radical members would like to go into
opposition at the regional level as they have done at the
federal level and retool the party's message (reftel). A May
8 discussion between Pol-Econ Couns and sp.a Senator Marleen
Temmerman confirmed this discussion was ongoing. The
pragmatic Temmerman thought going into opposition at the
national level was the wrong decision, but hinted that many
in her party prefer opposition at both levels of government.
6. (C) The OpenVLD and LDD have been attacking each other
aggressively in the media, with federal Deputy PM and FM De
Gucht saying the OpenVLD would not join a government with
LDD. The press acrimony between the OpenVLD leadership and
LDD leader Jean-Marie Dedecker is particularly tense because
Dedecker left the OpenVLD several years ago to begin his own
rival party that has drawn many OpenVLD politicians and
voters. The histrionics between the two parties rose to a
new level in late April and early May. Dedecker hired a
private investigator who was discovered following OpenVLD
leaders looking for scandal. The Flemish press the week of
May 4 focused on the back bench party switcher Dirk Vijnk who
left LDD for OpenVLD, only to return to LDD. OpenVLD party
leader Bart Somers was forced to publicly apologize for
writing a letter promising Vijnk a seat in parliament through
2015 if he left LDD for good. Though these two parties seem
to have a particularly strong rivalry prior to the election,
they could decide that cooperating after June 7 is
politically expedient.
Comment--Regional Elections and the Federal Government
-------------- --------------
7. (C) Though PM Van Rompuy has said regional elections are
purely regional affairs, the election could deliver a
critique of the national government where the CD&V and
OpenVLD represent Flanders alone. If those two parties do
well, they can likely continue at the national level with
their ministerial portfolios intact. If the Socialists do
very well at the regional level, their fortunes turning,
perhaps they may be inclined to remain part of the status quo
regional majority, and even consider asking to rejoin the
federal coalition. If LDD or NVA do well, and a center right
coalition forms, then it is unlikely the francophone parties
would agree to a national coalition with what many
francophones consider radical Flemish parties. There is
always the chance that a weak showing by the CD&V and OpenVLD
could indicate a lack of confidence in the national
government and force new national elections, but few party
leaders and fewer Belgians are interested in another long
period without a federal government.
.