BELGIUM:SPLIT BETWEEN LEFTISTS AND CENTRISTS COULD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000551

SIPDIS

STATE PASS EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: BELGIUM:SPLIT BETWEEN LEFTISTS AND CENTRISTS COULD
SEND FLEMISH SOCIALISTS TO THE REGIONAL OPPOSITION

Classified By: Political Economic Counselor Richard Eason for reasons 1
.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: The Flemish Socialist Party (sp.a) is
undergoing an internal struggle between leftists and
centrists that could send it into the opposition after the
June 7, 2009 regional elections. The party is currently part
of the three party Flemish regional government with the
Christian Democrats (CD&V) and the Liberals (OpenVLD),but
went into opposition at the national level after its poor
performance in the 2007 national elections. With the party's
weak poll numbers varying between thirteen and fourteen
percent, Poloff met with representatives of the leftist old
guard and the more modern centrists to gauge the party's
prospects of once again participating in a regional
coalition. sp.a Vice Chairman Dirk Van der Maelen advocates
the party's return to a leftist, worker-based platform, while
centrist MP and former Minister of Social Security Bruno
Tobback believes the party's future is competing for the
center. Van der Maelen believes the party should go in to
opposition at the regional level and focus on a developing a
new leftist message, while Tobback and the younger wing would
like to rejoin government at both regional and national
levels. If the party were to do well in June and rejoin a
regional government, it could push for rehabilitation at the
national level. On the other hand, strong electoral returns
for the center-right and rightist parties could lead to a
right-wing regional government, making sp.a's chances of
returning to the national coalition nil. End Summary.


2. (C) sp.a Vice President Dirk Van der Maelen described
himself to Poloff in late March as part of the sp.a's leftist
old guard. He said social democratic parties were doing
poorly throughout Europe, with Spain as the possible
exception. He attributed social democracy's decline, and the
Flemish Socialists' drubbing in the 2007 national elections,
to too many years in government, compromising on core
principles, and the lack of a grand message to draw voters.
He is one of the major advocates within the sp.a for time in
opposition after June's regional election. Van der Maelen
argued time in opposition at both national and local levels
would allow the party to concentrate on building its base and
sharpening its message. He noted that the party's younger
wing disagreed. Van der Maelen said he was one of the
strongest voices within sp.a arguing for a return to focusing
on worker's issues and a stronger leftist message. He
derided the younger wing's focus on attracting socially
liberal professionals living in urban areas. He would
continue to push for a focus on workers as the party's true
constituents, especially in this time of economic downturn.
He even attributed the recent rise of right-wing protest
parties in Flanders as a reaction by former sp.a voters to
the compromises the sp.a was forced to make as part of
government; after a few years in opposition these disaffected
socialists would return to the sp.a.


3. (C) MP and Former Minister of Social Services Bruno
Tobback told Poloff March 30 that being a politician in
Belgium right now, especially in the opposition, was
unpleasant, as the government has put all major decisions on
hold until after the regional elections. Tobback was
televised April 4 delivering the sp.a critique of the
government's failure to pass a budget and address the
financial crisis. Tobback would like his party to re-enter
government nationally. He is not certain about sp.a's
chances of joining a regional coalition after the June 7
election and predicts that his party might demand a strong
concession in a coalition governing plan if it does well,
which could include an invitation to rejoin the national
government. When asked about the Francophone PS' desire to
have sp.a back in the national government, Tobback explained
that the PS would face serious criticism if the national
government is forced to scale back some social programs in
the next few years, while the Flemish Socialists criticize
cuts from the opposition. Though Tobback yearns to be back
in government, he admits his party has serious challenges in
appealing to voters right now. Rather than attributing the
sp.a's woes to abandoning Socialist orthodoxy however, he
believes the party has failed to compete effectively for the
center. The Flemish electorate lies in the center or the
center-right according to Tobback, and the sp.a needs to
focus on attracting those voters.


4. (C) Comment: Only a few months ago, another three party
Flemish regional government (CD&V-OpenVLD-sp.a) seemed the
most likely outcome after the upcoming June 7 regional
elections. The split between the leftists and centrists

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within the Flemish Socialist party may prevent sp.a from
focusing on a core message and deciding whether to join a
coalition should they do better than the thirteen to fourteen
percent predicted by recent polls. Alternately, the Flemish
center-right parties may choose to court a right-wing party
as a governing partner rather than give in to demands from
the sp.a that would appease its leftist wing. Whether sp.a
decides to go for leftist or centrist voters, it has a
long-term problem in the predominantly center-right Flemish
political environment. The number of leftist voters seems to
be shrinking and the competition for centrist voters is
already fiercely contested by the CD&V and the OpenVLD. It
is the Francophone Socialist PS across the border in Wallonia
that is the main proponent of sp.a success. The PS is part
of the national coalition government and would like a Flemish
partner to assist in supporting a socialist program
nationally. A strong center-right election result on June 7
in Flanders would make it harder for the PS to resist cuts in
social programs at the national level and hurt its long-term
prospects among its constituents.

BUSH
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