BELGIAN PM VAN ROMPUY HARD TO REPLACE IF HE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 001521

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE PASS EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN PM VAN ROMPUY HARD TO REPLACE IF HE
BECOMES EU PRESIDENT

BRUSSELS 00001521 001.2 OF 003



1. (U) Summary: The Belgian media and academics believe PM
Herman Van Rompuy is the most likely candidate for EU
President. Van Rompuy has been a consensus-builder during
his year in the Prime Minister's office and throughout his
political career of more than 35 years. Van Rompuy shares a
deep commitment to the European Union that is inherent to all
Belgian politicians; as a founding member state of the
European Coal and Steel Community and the EU, Belgium
believes strongly in the EU and sees itself as a part of a
European political family. Should Van Rompuy be selected as
EU President, choosing a new Prime Minister could be a
contentious task. Van Rompuy's Flemish Christian Democratic
(CD&V) Party has said former PM and current FM Yves Leterme
would be the most obvious successor, though he is unpopular
in Francophone Belgium and with some in his own party. A
return of former PM Jean-Luc Dehaene from retirement is a
less likely option. Whoever is found to take Van Rompuy's
place would lead the GOB through the Belgian EU presidency
(July 1 to December 31, 2010) and until new elections are
held in the first half of 2011. End Summary.

Van Rompuy as EU President
--------------


2. (SBU) The Belgian press has speculated over the last week
that current PM Herman Van Rompuy would be selected by
European leaders as the first President of the Council of the
European Union. Both the Flemish and French speaking media
argue that a politician from one of the smaller members of
the original six founding countries of the EU (France,
Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg)
would be the best candidate. A knowledgeable academic
contact views Van Rompuy as the only non-controversial choice
among the contenders. If the EU picks Van Rompuy, it will be
taking a politician whose local reputation is as a low key
consensus builder in a country known for its difficult
regional and linguistic divisions -- not an insignificant
resume item for a future EU President. However, there is not
yet EU-wide consensus on Van Rompuy, and some member states
bristle at the idea of simply validating what they see as
France and Germany's choice.

Leterme or Anyone But Leterme?
--------------


3. (SBU) If Van Rompuy is appointed EU President, the search
will be on to find a successor to him as Prime Minister.
According to a contact within the CD&V, the party's
leadership has already endorsed former Prime Minister and
current Foreign Minster Yves Leterme as Van Rompuy's
replacement. The same contact also acknowledged there was
some concern among party regulars with that decision. A keen
academic observer of Belgian politics recently told Poloff
that many members of the political class in Brussels are
worried about another Leterme Prime Ministership. That
contact noted that even within the CD&V, "the party of
government," there were not many who favored Leterme's move
from the MFA back to the PM's office. Leterme's first
government took seven months to form and fell within a year.
The second Leterme government fell when Leterme resigned in
December 2008 due to allegations that he interfered in a
major judicial decision related to the sale of Belgium's
largest bank Fortis to the French bank BNP Paribas. Leterme
is not particularly well liked by the Francophone parties and
comes from the pro-Flanders wing of the CD&V.


4. (SBU) Still, among other CD&V senior leaders, the current
party, Chairman Marianne Thyssens, is not considered a
contender. Current Flemish Minister-President Kris Peeters
is a rising star within the party, but just won his second
election to a full four-year term, and likely would not view
appointment to the remaining year or 18 months before
elections must be held in 2011 to be appealing. Asking
former PM Dehaene to return from retirement for a year is
another possibility, but only if the CD&V's coalition
partners decide to oppose a third Leterme government.
Outside the CD&V, the Francophone Liberal MR and Flemish
Liberal Open VLD together hold 41 seats in Parliament. The

BRUSSELS 00001521 002.2 OF 003


MR leader, Didier Reynders, is the only plausible Francophone
PM, according to academic contacts and the press. However,
he would have difficulty gathering support from the other
Francophone party leaders in advance of the election. The
Open VLD party is in shambles and has no contender for PM.

Comment
--------------


5. (SBU) If Van Rompuy were offered the Presidency of the EU
Council, it might be too important a post for him to refuse,
but the move would carry some risks for Belgium. Belgium
holds the rotating EU Presidency during the second half of
2010 and as such will play a major role in putting the Lisbon
treaty into practice. Though a Belgian at the helm of the EU
Council during that time would reward Belgium's reputation as
a solid member of the European Union, it would also place the
spotlight on Belgium's contentious internal politics. Herman
Van Rompuy has ably led the Belgian government for the past
year and dealt well with the squabbling that sometimes erupts
between Belgium's language regions and parties. Some
observers in Brussels suggest Van Rompuy may turn down the EU
Presidency if offered, because of his dedication to his
country. That would also signal that Van Rompuy himself has
doubts about a possible third Leterme government.

BIO
---


6. (SBU) A Flemish Christian Democrat (CD&V),Herman Van
Rompuy became Prime Minister of Belgium on December 29, 2008,
when the King asked him to form a government after the
resignation of then PM Yves Leterme. Van Rompuy developed a
reputation as a consensus builder palatable to both Flemings
and Francophones throughout his over thirty-five years in
politics, strongly supporting the unity of the Belgian state.
He has grown in public esteem since his appointment, based
on his comparatively smooth management of Belgium's often
contentious body politic. Van Rompuy served as President of
the Chamber of Deputies from 2007 to 2008. He received the
honorary title of Minister of State in 2004. He has been
elected to the Belgian Chamber of Deputies on the CD&V list
in every election since 1995. He served as Vice Prime
Minister and Minister of Budget from September 1993 to July
1999; he earned respect for drastically reducing Belgium's
public debt during this period. From September 1988 to
September 1995 he was the National Party Chairman for the
Christian People's Party (CVP),the forerunner of the CD&V.
He briefly held the post of State Secretary for Finance and
Small and Medium Enterprise from May to September 1988. He
was a CVP senator from 1988 to 1995. From 1982 to 1988 he
was the CVP Chairman for the Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde
electoral arrondissement, a politically important region to
both the Francophones and the Flemings, which includes the
Brussels region, and a mix of majority French and Dutch
speaking suburbs in the Flemish region surrounding the city.
He first became a member of the CVP's national bureau in
1978, and served as the National Chairman of the CVP Youth
from 1973 to 1977. During his political career, he has
served as a C on October

BRUSSELS 00001521 003.2 OF 003


31, 1947. He is married to Geertrui Wendels. The couple has
four children: Peter (1980),Laura (1981),Elke (1983),and
Thomas (1986). They have a grandson named Lander (2008).

GUTMAN
.