USEU SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY LEW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 001183

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL EAID EUN AF PK IK
SUBJECT: USEU SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY LEW

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1. (SBU) You are visiting Brussels at an ideal time to discuss
Afghanistan and Pakistan with the EU. Already a major contributor
of development and humanitarian assistance, the EU is in the midst
of writing a new Af/Pak strategy paper for release in October.
Although European public opinion is skeptical of efforts in
Afghanistan, the Swedish EU Presidency is committed to this project,
which EU foreign ministers will discuss in the days before your
arrival. The EU's commitment to Afghanistan and Pakistan includes
billions of dollars in aid, a police training program in
Afghanistan, and increasing political and economic engagement with
Pakistan. Your interlocutors should be keen to discuss the emerging
EU strategy, as well as to look for areas for concrete U.S.-EU
cooperation, such as in the field of police training, particularly
as the EU-U.S. summit approaches. Europeans need to appreciate
better what is at stake for them in Afghanistan and Pakistan. On
Iraq, the EU has been more forthcoming in looking for ways to
coordinate or partner with us since the change of administration,
expanding and starting to do in-country judicial training,
undertaking negotiations on a partnership agreement, and continuing
to support refugee return; however, they are less enthusiastically
involved than in Afghanistan/Pakistan.

A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR IN AFGHANISTAN
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2. (SBU) The European Commission (EC) is a large donor to
Afghanistan and is one of the few that provides a multi-year
commitment. This is on top of the support that individual EU member
states provide to Afghanistan. The EC provided approximately 1.3
billion euros in assistance for the period 2002-2006, overshooting
its pledged 1 billion euros. For 2007-2010, the EC pledged 610
million (e.g. approximately 150 million/year). This figure still
holds in EU planning, although there will likely be additional
funding from the European Commission's Humanitarian Aid Office
(ECHO) and other areas of the Commission that could bring the total
figure closer to 750 million euros. The Commission is committed to
assistance to Afghanistan through at least 2013, and External
Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner told the press earlier
this year that the current financial crisis will not deter the
Commission's commitment to Afghanistan. The EC's funding target for
the entire 2007-2013 period is at least 1.3 billion euros. The EC's
assistance strategy reflects the priorities laid out in the
Afghanistan Compact and the Afghan National Development Strategy.
EC assistance for 2008-2010 focuses on three areas: reform of the
justice sector; rural development, including alternatives to poppy
production; and public health. About 10 percent of EC funding goes
to non-focus areas, such as de-mining, regional cooperation, and
support to vulnerable groups. We have coordinated with the EC to
encourage regional economic cooperation, including working together
to craft the agenda for a successful Regional Economic Cooperation
Conference on Afghanistan in Islamabad last May.

STRONG SUPPORT TO AFGHAN ELECTIONS
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3.(SBU) Responding directly to VP Biden's request in March, the EC
provided considerable support to the August 20 presidential and
provincial elections. The EC pledged 35 million euros to the UN's
fund for electoral support and launched a 120-person election
observation mission headed by former French general Philippe
Moriltion, Morillon commenteember s -------------- In 2007, EU member states launchQd an EU police training
mission in AfghaniQtan (EUPOL). After some initial difficulties,
the mission is gaining strength and new comman$er Kai Vittrup is
winning praise in Kabul and russels. The EUPOL mission currently
numbersabout 265 police trainers, with an eventual Qarget of 400.
The mission was initially focus%d on civil policing tasks in Kabul,

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but as the mission has grown, it has pushed more trainers out to the
provinces. EUPOL officers are currently present in 14 PRTs, and
EUPOL is seeking to increase its presence in the U.S.-administered
Regional Command-East. To do this, the EU is asking for a technical
agreement with the United States, which would have the U.S. provide
housing, medical care, logistics, and - most importantly - in
extremis life-protection support to EU civilian police at our PRTs.
Your interlocutors may want to discuss the possibility of
negotiating an agreement with the USG, as the EU has done with most
other non-EU countries leading PRTs in Afghanistan. We have sought
guidance from Washington on whether there could be such an
agreement.

INCREASING OUTREACH TO PAKISTAN
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6.(SBU) The EU recognizes the need for additional focus on and
support to Pakistan. The first EU-Pakistan summit took place in
Brussels on June 17 and initiated a strategic dialogue on
development, education, science and technology, security,
counter-terrorism, democracy, human rights and trade. The joint
summit statement said the EU and Pakistan would work towards further
liberalization of trade, and that the EU would continue to help
Pakistan meet the EU's sanitary and phyto-sanitary requirements for
fishery and other products. The parties also agreed to undertake a
counter-terrorism dialogue, notably in the field of law enforcement
and criminal justice, and to consult regularly on arms control,
disarmament and nonproliferation issues.

7.(SBU) The Commission has allocated 200 million euros to Pakistan
in its program for the period 2007-2010, focused on poverty
reduction, as well as education and human resources development, in
particular in the North-West Frontier Province and Baluchistan. At
the April Tokyo donors' conference, the EC pledged 485 million euros
between 2009 and 2013. EU member states and the EC together pledged
around $1.8 billion of the $5 billion in total pledged at the
conference. In the wake of the Pakistani military offensive in the
Swat Valley, the EC also increased its humanitarian aid to Pakistan
from 7 million euros to 72 million. While visiting Brussels in late
July, SRAP Holbrooke urged EU leaders to consider a further increase
in humanitarian aid, as well as support to the Pakistani electricity
sector, ideas EU officials may want to discuss with you. The EU
will probably be open to specific proposals for increased aid to
Pakistan, given their growing engagement.

KEEPING THE EU ENGAGED IN IRAQ
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8.(SBU) In contrast to Afghanistan and Pakistan, overall EC donor
support to Iraq has been decreasing since 2007, with the allocation
for 2009-2010 reaching only 65.8 million euros. Although the EU has
been more willing to listen to requests for Iraqi IDP and refugee
support since President Obama took office, they remain skeptical
about the reported numbers of displaced Iraqis in the region and
claims about their needs. On returns-related initiatives, however,
the Commission is more supportive, and is moving from single-year
assistance programs to a multi-year strategy focused on creating a
favorable environment for refugee and IDP returns. In the 2009-2010
program, 20 million euros will go to good governance and rule of
law; technical assistance to the Independent High Commissioner for
Human Rights; modernization of the legal education system;
implementation of a new NGO law; and the creation of an NGO network.
The other 43.8 million euros for 2009-2010 are allocated to the
provision of basic health, education, and migration/displacement
services. Additional support on migration and displacement issues
includes a 20 million euro package of humanitarian aid from ECHO.

9.(SBU) While we still expect your interlocutors to be reluctant to
provide major new contributions for refugees outside of Iraq, we
want to encourage European donors to join us in providing critical
assistance to ensure that returning Iraqis successfully reintegrate
into former communities or settle in new communities. Early success
will demonstrate to Iraqi refugees in the region that return and
national reconciliation are possible.

10.(SBU) The EU Council is increasing its activities to reform the
Iraqi judicial sector and may look for opportunities to partner with
us. Since its launch in 2005, the EU's Integrated Rule of Law
Mission for Iraq (EUJUST LEX) has provided training to senior Iraqi
criminal justice officials. The mission has held over 100 training
courses and trained over 2,700 Iraqi officials. Until this summer,
all training activities had been held outside Iraq, but in July, the
EU kicked off several in-country pilot programs, which could provide
the basis for expanded activities in Iraq. As the EU considers
further action inside Iraq, your interlocutors may be interested in
discussing partnership opportunities. In addition to refugee and
rule of law programs, the EU is Iraq's second largest trading
partner and is in the process of negotiating a Trade and Cooperation
Agreement, which may be concluded by the end of 2009.

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RESOURCES
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11.(SBU) The U.S. Mission to the EU (USEU) is one of our largest
policy and reporting missions abroad. USEU comprises eight agencies
that convey USG positions and report on EU-wide developments as they
affect U.S. interests, especially in economic, foreign policy, and
justice related areas. USEU's 70 American and 35 European staff
follow EU activities as they evolve in the two dozen
Directorates-General of the EU Commission; in parallel structures of
the EU Council, which comprises the 27 member state embassies in
Brussels; and in the still modestly-empowered European Parliament.


12.(SBU) USEU's substantive priorities are led by Afghanistan,
followed by energy security and climate change, dealing with Russia,
Middle East peace, the Doha Trade Round, the Transatlantic Economic
Council, and personal data protection. Justice and law enforcement
activities, including counterterrorism, are moving up the agenda.
Present levels of staffing and facilities are right for now, and for
the foreseeable future. The complexity of EU institutions and
procedures tends to inhibit U.S. officials' understanding of what
the EU can and cannot accomplish. And, as such, the EU's complexity
can operate either to our benefit or to our detriment. We benefit
when the EU's consensus requirements forestall radical positions or
decisions with which we disagree, but consensus as well as complex
procedures can impede the EU from taking strong, positive action
when called for.

MURRAY