ANTIGUA,S RULING PARTY FAVORED TO WIN ELECTION;

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000099

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2024
TAGS: PGOV PINR ST CN XL
SUBJECT: ANTIGUA,S RULING PARTY FAVORED TO WIN ELECTION;
MUD SLINGING STARTS EARLY

Classified By: Charge d,Affaires, a.i. D. Brent Hardt, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C). Antiguan Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer dissolved
parliament February 9 to launch what will be a hotly
contested election season. Spencer did not announce an
election date, but hinted he will do so soon, with an
election date expected by the end of March. The ruling
United Progressive Party (UPP) is forecast to win by many
pundits, but the faltering economy and a large disaffected
immigrant population could swing votes to the opposition
Antigua Labour Party (ALP). Opposition ALP-instigated rumors
of suspect campaign contributions and outright vote buying
have so far not overcome dogged UPP allegations of ALP
corruption during their many years in power. End summary.

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Elections Call Soon, But Soon Enough For UPP?
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2. (C) After dissolving parliament February 9, Antigua Prime
Minister Baldwin Spencer is expected to announce an election
date sometime in the first half of March. He is
constitutionally obligated to call for elections no later
than March 25, setting a date that is not later than 90 days
after that. Most commentators and members of both political
parties agree that he will call elections to be held by the
end of March at the latest. Most people in his own party
feel that if the PM had called for elections in October, 2008
as many in the Party had urged, the UPP would have won
easily. While most voters realize that the downturn in the
economy is not the fault of the government and will vote
accordingly, economic conditions are making the elections
closer than they would have been just four months ago,
Finance Minister Errol Cort told PolOff in a recent meeting.

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Opposition Given a Fighter,s Chance
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3. (C) The consensus of the media and many in the business
community is that the UPP will hold most of their 13 seats,
perhaps losing one or two seats that were closely contested
last time. (Note: the UPP holds 13 of the 17 seats in
parliament versus 4 for the ALP. End note.) That said, the
ALP has made gains in recent polls, and, if the economy
worsens drastically between now and the election, it is
possible the ALP could win as many as 10 seats in the next
elections, according to social commentator Winston Derrick.
UPP President Leon Smester argued that the UPP will win all
but 2 seats and one of those, the seat held by ALP MP Asot
Michael will be vacated when he goes to prison on corruption
charges. Minority leader Stedroy "Cutie" Benjamin,
meanwhile, told Poloff that ALP polls show they will win the
election by a comfortable margin.

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The Party Base and Swing Vote Constituencies
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4. (C) Both sides claim to be the party of the working
class with strong ties to the growing middle class. However,
most polls indicate that the UPP does best among the educated
middle-class, while also maintaining a comfortable margin
with the working class. The ALP,s weakness with the
educated middle class stems from allegations of corruption,
which still dog the party,s leadership, particularly former
PM Bird, according to regional political commentator and
pollster Peter Wickham. At the same time, backlash against
the personal income-tax regime instituted under the UPP,
which many in the middle-class feel disproportionably burdens
them, makes that constituency anything but a sure bet for the
UPP. Both sides agree that the immigrant population, which
accounts for nearly 25 percent of the electorate, leans
heavily in favor of the ALP and must prove decisive if the
ALP hopes to win. (Note: The Antiguan constitution grants
Commonwealth nationals the right to vote after three years of
residency.)

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Whither the Party Leaders?
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5. (C) The real problem that the ALP faces is a leadership
problem, Cort contended to us privately. The head of the
party and presumptive PM is former PM Lester Bird, who no
longer sits in parliament following a loss to Cort in the
2004 elections. The most recent poll conducted by the
Antigua Sun showed Cort leading Bird 47 percent to 32
percent, leading few to believe that Bird can win his seat
back. This creates a genuine problem for the ALP, who would
have no presumptive PM should they win. Voters are not
comfortable with the idea of Cutie Benjamin running the
country, Cort added, and other candidates such as Gaston
Browne continue to be dogged by corruption allegations. Gail
Christian, the ALP candidate running against PM Spencer, said
she expected one of the three women running for seats on the
ALP ticket would most likely be put forward as presumptive PM
if the ALP wins the election and Bird loses to Cort.


6. (C) Many people believe that Prime Minister Baldwin
Spencer is a lock to win his seat, but independent polls show
the race within 5 points at this point. The Prime Minister,s
decision to postpone elections and his penchant for overseas
travel and the limelight is a negative that he is going to
have to address when the campaign starts in earnest, Minister
of Education Bernard Joseph told Poloff. Moreover, the
much-publicized rift between the Government and the island,s
wealthiest family, the Hadeeds, led former UPP Minister of
State Aziz Hadeed to clandestinely provide financial backing
to Gail Christian. Hadeed told PolOff privately that while
he is publicly on the sidelines, he is personally funding
Christian,s campaign against Spencer. The best thing that
could happen to Antigua, he explained, is if both Bird and
Spencer lose their seats in the up coming election.

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Campaign Finance
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7. (C) Among the more pervasive rumors this election season
is the much reported 15 Million USD "secret" contribution
alleged to have been provided to the ALP by Texas billionaire
and dual Antiguan citizen Allen Stanford. The Stanford
Development Group has in excess of one billion USD in
investments on the island according to a multitude of
well-placed sources. The ALP maintains this is mere rumor,
adding that Stanford,s fear of the PM has caused him to
remain neutral. In fact, they claimed, neither Stanford nor
the Hadeeds have provided any financing to the ALP out of
fear that the UPP will "go after them" if they should win the
next election.


8. (C) Campaign paraphernalia abounds on the island, with
tens of thousands of banners, flags, t-shirts and posters
seen all over the country. The ALP claims that they have
been solidly outspent by the UPP, which they say has three
times as many posters and other paraphernalia up across the
country. A prima facie survey conducted by PolOff seems to
bear out this claim. The ALP also claims to be entirely
self-funded, largely through liens against property owned by
Asot Michael, an ALP MP under investigation for corruption
charges involving the purchase of government property.


9. (C) The UPP claims similar poverty, but despite these
claims, the nation is emblazoned with the blue and yellow
colors of the party,s flags and banner. The UPP received
three containers of campaign paraphernalia with tens of
thousands of flags, buttons, t-shirts and posters in just the
last month, the ALP contends. The campaign supplies were
arranged for by the Chinese Ambassador, say ALP sources.


10. (C) Hadeed noted further that Venezuela is also a strong
financial backer of the UPP and particularly PM Spencer, who
has been an ally for Chavez within the region. Despite their
claim to have the backing of the middle classes, Hadeed
explained, the UPP does not have the financial backing of the
large business interests on this island and their need for
money has led them to accept money from foreign sources,
notably Venezuela and China.


11. (C) Antigua has no campaign financing restriction or
reporting requirements outside of the 21-day period between
the time when the Governor General certifies the elections
and the polls open, Electoral Commission Chairman Watt
explained. Watt lamented the amount of money being spent on
this election, terming it "obscene". "Everyone knows", he
said, that little brown envelopes with cash are being

distributed to households in districts with close races, but
there is no electoral body with the authority to provide
oversight for these kinds of "shenanigans." Contradicting
complaints by the ALP, Watt noted that Spencer had in fact
invited foreign observers, including from the OAS, but he
said there could be no formal response from observers until
an election date was set.


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ALP Promises Closer Ties After Win
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12. (C) According to ALP Chairman Gaston Browne, the UPP has
taken a giant step towards countries like Cuba, Venezuela and
China unfriendly to the United States. He noted that Antigua
no longer votes with the United States on human rights issues
in the UN and has even taken to siding with Iran on issues
where we are natural partners with the U.S. Browne claimed
that the most disturbing trend was the growing level of
military cooperation with China and Venezuela, adding that
only last summer a Chinese General and several other officers
from the People,s Liberation Army (PLA) came to provide
military training for the Antigua and Barbuda Defense Force.
According to Browne, this represented a marked difference
from the ALP, which He claimed had always supported military
training and cooperation with the U.S. military. "What does
a one-party state military like the PLA have to teach the
military forces in a democracy like Antigua," he added. The
ALP, Browne promised, would change this wrong course that the
UPP has chosen.

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Comment
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13. (C) While the outcome of this election is far from clear,
the consensus among non-partisans is that the UPP will be
given another term to show they can run the country.
Widespread allegations of past corruption continue to drag
down the popularity of the opposition ALP and will likely
prove the core issue that returns the UPP to power. That
said, if the economy continues to collapse and unemployment
rises sharply, the ALP could return to power.


14. (C) Incendiary allegations by the ALP concerning the
cozy relationship that Spencer has with Chavez and growing
closeness with the Chinese are not new. In the Antiguan
political landscape, the ALP under the Birds had always
steered close to the United States on international issues,
while Spencer in opposition had generally leaned leftward,
particularly in supporting Cuba. The ALP certainly hopes
that its promises of closer ties and greater cooperation on
substantive issues can help position the party as more likely
to build close ties with the new U.S. administration
(President Obama is wildly popular in Antigua). Also in the
background has been a rumor - no doubt planted by the ALP --
that the U.S. is supporting the ALP due to the UPP's growing
relationship with Venezuela. This rumor is pervasive enough
that Minister Cort asked PolOff directly if the U.S. was
providing material support for the ALP. PolOff explained
that the U.S. is not interested in the specific outcome of
the elections, only that the elections are free and fair,
reflecting the will of the Antiguan people.
HARDT