Dominica's General Election Creates a Nearly One Party State

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000771

SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/22
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM OAS XL
SUBJECT: Dominica's General Election Creates a Nearly One Party State

DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D

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Summary

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1. (C) Roosevelt Skerrit's Dominica Labour Party (DLP) won a
landslide victory, capturing 18 of the 21 constituencies, with the
opposition United Workers Party (UWP) relegated to only 3 seats.
The final vote tally was 61 percent for the DLP, 35 percent for the
UWP and 4 percent for the remaining parties. Even the opposition
leader, Ron Green, failed to hold his seat. Although the election
produced many tight races, with three constituencies being decided
by fewer than five votes, the first-past-the-post electoral system
once again produced an electoral result skewed heavily to the
majority. The opposition announced that it plans to boycott
Parliament for the time being as a protest over allegations of
election irregularities that included the government flying in
voters from overseas at party expense. CARICOM has officially
announced the elections as fair and transparent, with the OAS
statement likely to follow suit. The result leaves Skerrit, who
has been the Eastern Caribbean leader most closely aligned with
Hugo Chavez, firmly ensconced for five more years. End Summary.



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Winning Strategy

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2. (C) Prime Minister Skerrit's comfortable victory December 18
appears to have been based largely on his personal popularity and a
populist message that carried well throughout the country. Out of
36,294 votes cast the result was 61 percent DLP, 35 percent UWP,
2.5 percent Freedom, and 1.5 percent for the remaining candidates.
Skerrit effectively campaigned on his relationships with Venezuela
and China, and how their government aid programs had proven
integral to the country's development. Skerrit effectively
portrayed large-scale projects of Windsor Cricket Stadium, the
expansion of the airport, and the building of a sea wall as reasons
for confidence in the future. Also, his Chavez-style populist
message played well in a country that suffers from persistent high
unemployment and poor infrastructural development.



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Election Irregularities and the OAS Position

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3. (C) While the Election Day voting seemed to proceed smoothly,
with no indications of ballot stuffing or coercion, a number of
potential violations of democratic principles in the weeks prior to
the vote tarnished the results. The DLP restricted radio access
(the main source of information) for the opposition to one private
station that only has coverage in approximately one quarter of the
country. The government stonewalled any attempt to update the
voter lists, to provide any form of Voter ID, or to give any power
to polling officials to enforce a provision of the election law
that makes a voter ineligible if he or she has not returned to
Dominica within the previous five-year period. The lack of voter
identification is the most troubling, as voters were not required
to provide any documentation proving their identity, and only
needed to provide their name, occupation, and address to the
presiding officers at the polling station. Even in cases where
polling officials doubted the voter's identity or had a record of
someone with the same name voting, a simple oath affirming one's
true identity was all that was required to allow the vote to
proceed. Direct and indirect bribes are also alleged to have
occurred, most notably via the buying of airplane tickets to
pre-screened members of the Diaspora living in the U.S. The main
source of DLP campaign funding for such activities is alleged to
have come from Venezuela and China.




4. (C) The CARICOM Observer mission called the election

"transparent" on December 22, despite not making it to the majority
of the polling stations. The Organization of American States (OAS)
observer team, in which an Embassy Poloff participated, indicated
that it would also conclude the election to be free and fair. Such
a declaration only applies to Election Day activities, of course,
and does not attempt to delve in the myriad challenges brought by
the opposition. Poloff's observations during the OAS mission
confirm the basic position that Election Day activities were
largely free of abuse. That said, the opposition's claims of
pre-election maneuvering that were not fully in the spirit of fair
and transparent elections merit further review in any full
assessment.



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Opposition Failures and Boycott of Parliament

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5. (C) The UWP's poor showing reflects the party's failure to
create a positive, alternate vision for the future, instead running
its campaign almost solely on an anti-Skerrit platform. The claims
of corruption failed to resonate with the public, possibly in part
because the UWP had its own serious corruption issues when it was
last in power. The opposition leader and deputy leader lost both
of their races, with only ex-PM Edison James, who had himself been
run out of office because of corruption, performing well. Most
notably, the third Dominican party, the Freedom Party, not only
failed to win a seat, but was marginalized to the point of
irrelevance. According to sources in the UWP, they plan to boycott
Parliament in order to highlight the issue of campaign impropriety.
The opposition now recognizes the need to radically change its
approach, by potentially merging all opposition groups into a new
party, electing new leadership, and creating a new platform with a
more positive vision for the future.



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Lingering Disputes

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6. (C) Due to the many tight votes, including districts decided by
two, three and five votes, further recounts and appeals are likely.
The more important considerations are the court cases having to do
with Skerrit's alleged dual citizenship, the complaints about
restricted media access, and likely challenges to chartered flights
and Voter ID procedures. These challenges are unlikely to affect
the election result.



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Comment

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7. (C) The election turned into a rout due to the
first-past-the-post electoral system, Skerrit's personal appeal,
the DLP's heavy edge in financing from its foreign backers, the use
of government office to influence voters, the public's seeming
disinterest in corruption as an issue, the lack of confidence in
uncharismatic opposition leader Ron Green, and the extreme
marginalization of third party candidates. The opposition boycott
of parliament is unlikely to influence the government or the
public, as most appear content with Skerrit and will view this
tactic as sour grapes. Skerrit now has a strong mandate and will
likely be more aggressive in pursuing his pet projects such as the
Red Clinic, a Chavez-style operation that entails Skerrit
personally disbursing cash handouts to citizens that plead for
assistance. Without any significant obstacles from either the
opposition or those within his party, Skerrit now has the
opportunity to lead the country in whatever direction he seeks.
Whether he chooses to tack hard to the left and further his links
to Chavez, or decides he can now comfortably govern more from the
center bears watching. If the allegations of sizeable campaign
donations from China and Venezuela are true, those countries might
also look to cash in on their electoral investment in the coming
years.
HARDT